TS Ernesto: Sat Pics, Models, Analysis Thread 12

[all_we_know_is_FALLING]

I was hoping by late tonight the forecast would be more certain, now it seems LESS certain.

The models are still all over the place, and land interaction has become a factor.

[theworld]

Cuba is poised to rip this to shreds...thank goodness! 1-2 days of cuba should do the trick!

well, remember that's only IF it goes over CUBA, and right now it suppose to stay left of Cuba. If it's a hurricane when it enters Cuba, it won't rip it to shreds, but it will rip it to a tropical storm or at worst a tropical depression, at which point, it can gain strength EXTREMELY RAPIDLY once it hits the gulf again. We've seen that happen before.

No matter how we slice it, it's hitting the Gulf and that a bathtub. Glad I moved North.

[Stormcenter]

Cuba is poised to rip this to shreds...thank goodness! 1-2 days of cuba should do the trick!

That would be GREAT and then we wouldn't have to deal with Ernesto next week.

[Lindaloo]

Please stop quoting to chit chat. If you want to chat, please go to our chatroom.

[Extremeweatherguy]

I was hoping by late tonight the forecast would be more certain, now it seems LESS certain.

The models are still all over the place, and land interaction has become a factor.

I agree. According to the NHC it seems like this could still go anywhere from TX to FL. HOPEFULLY we will have a better idea tomorrow. Seems like 2006 is the season of suspensful storms.

[Tampa_God]

Cant wait until the line gets off of Pensacola

East would be better, into a less-populated area of Florida. Hope you don't have to change your name to "Ernestohater".

haaa, I hope I dont either....I will be glued to your forecasts on here and hope the threat passes to my east....give me some good news wxman!!

Towards Me?

Well maybe in between our areas in a less populated area

Big Bend Area

[all_we_know_is_FALLING]

Extremeweatherguy -

I think so too. It seems like storms this seasons are a bit harder to forecast than 2005.

And BTW, the local news in Memphis are all over Ernesto. You'd think we were actually on the coast!

[Opal storm]

I think the next 24-36 hrs will be very important in determining what direction Ernesto will go and if it survives the Carib.

[Ivanhater]

I think the next 24-36 hrs will be very important in determining what direction Ernesto will go and if it survives the Carib.

Ya, I think we all know the track will shift off of us at some time, just hope it does not switch back...

[caneman]

Interesting all the people that bashed the GFS run but it looks pretty darn close to verifying in the short run.

[Bailey1777]

GFS short term was not the problem. It's the middle and end.

[jasons2k]

Hey Pro mets, what do you think of the NCAR WRF-ARW model? I heard it hyped-up eslewhere as nailing the few storms it was run on last year.

For those that are curious, it can be found here:

http://wrf-model.org/plots/realtime_hurricane12.php

Select Windspeed under the surface menu and then run it. It takes Ernesto along the southern periphery of Cuba and then bends it west to about 90W and 22.5N at 120 hours.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Couple of points and questions here. First checked out the latest wv loops you can clearly see the ull moving west at a good clip. You can also see the high over the SE US standing firm causing NE flow across FL to easterly across gulf. Is this what is steering the ull west at a more rapid clip and once Ernesto bumps into this turns him on a quicker more westerly course by the time he reaches Jamaica? It looks like the high is really strong right now and I just don't see it weakening much in 24-36 hrs.

[caneman]

GFS short term was not the problem. It's the middle and end.

I'm not sure that will be a problem so far so good. May verify. Nelieve this system will end up landfall East of 87 or 88.

[Stratosphere747]

Jschlitz...

Check a few threads down. There is a small disco about the WRF.

[Droop12]

Anybody noticing the huge blowup of convection right on top of the LLC. Should be intresting when recon gets in there.

[Droop12]

He's still being sheared but this blowup may put him over the top.

[Bailey1777]

I'm not a met but like I said earlier today everybody should take a look at the ARW model it is going to blow the others away. (IMO)

[CajunMama]

What is it going to take for some of you to quit filling up these threads with "chat"? We've tried being nice. The moderating staff has enough to do and some of you just won't listen. THINK before you hit submit...


Edit: Caneman...you just proved my point...couldn't your reply have been pm'd?

[caneman]

I don't see just chit chat. Am I missing something?