Would a Fla west coast landfall be impossible..?

[floridahurricaneguy]

Also a little concerned here in Tampa Bay... just dont want people suprised... expect slight west shift for 11am advisory.

[tracyswfla]

Not ****casting.. AT ALL. But my intuition is saying West coast.

[MomH]

Local meteorologist, Steve Jerve and his Vipir model still shows a TS coming near Tampa Bay....very interesting indeed. Let's see if this pans out.

Steve J. and Viper showed a west coast landing yesterday morning also so I guess it has been pretty consistant for at least 24 hours.
MomH

[Noah]

Not ****casting.. AT ALL. But my intuition is saying West coast.

Why is it when we ask if the storm is coming to our area, be anyone on here, people get so concerned that someone will think they are -removed-??

We are aloud to ask and wonder and track like everyone else.

Also, we should know to prepare.

I dont see a wish cast in your question....

[Noah]

Local meteorologist, Steve Jerve and his Vipir model still shows a TS coming near Tampa Bay....very interesting indeed. Let's see if this pans out.

Steve J. and Viper showed a west coast landing yesterday morning also so I guess it has been pretty consistant for at least 24 hours.
MomH

Do you have a link to that vipor?

[westmoon]

Think it might be time to retie the boat just in case

[stpeteweathergal]

I don't have access to VIPIR, sorry no link to provide.
I saw Steve Jerve's model run on TV late last night and this morning heard on 970 WFLA, that meteorologist also uses VIPIR, confirmed what I saw last night.

[westmoon]

I hate to say it but channel 8 viper has been right more than it has been wrong.
not getting a good feeling here at all, I thought it would have started it's turn to the NNE by now.

[linkerweather]

I don't have access to VIPIR, sorry no link to provide.
I saw Steve Jerve's model run on TV late last night and this morning heard on 970 WFLA, that meteorologist also uses VIPIR, confirmed what I saw last night.

Yesterday's VIPIR run was anomolous, it had a cat 2/3 storm skirting by tampa to the west. It had some bad data ingested and shouldn't have been shown on TV yesterday. We did not show it. This mornings run is the same now as the earlier runs from yesterday showing a FT myers landfall, then heading north.

http://www.baynews9.com/content/36/2006 ... 0northwest

Click on the video for this mornings update.

[TampaBayBee]

Local meteorologist, Steve Jerve and his Vipir model still shows a TS coming near Tampa Bay....very interesting indeed. Let's see if this pans out.

Did you hear this on the radio this morning? Station 97.9, I think? Where Steve J. was talking about how VIPIR had nailed Charley and a few other systems, and how it's still calling for a Tampa'ish landfall?

I only caught the tail end of the broadcast.

I also thought I heard him mention a "gut" feeling about strengthing. DId you catch that?

I'm sorry I missed his forecast this morning. Steve Jerve is by far the best meteorologist in the Tampa Bay area. No hype, no drama--he gives us the info necessary to make educated decisions. The VIPIR model did, indeed, indicate Charley would make landfall south of the predicted path up the Tampa Bay. Jerve was as surprised and relieved when the VIPIR model panned out for that storm as the rest of us who stared at each blip on the radar screen.

[linkerweather]

Local meteorologist, Steve Jerve and his Vipir model still shows a TS coming near Tampa Bay....very interesting indeed. Let's see if this pans out.

Did you hear this on the radio this morning? Station 97.9, I think? Where Steve J. was talking about how VIPIR had nailed Charley and a few other systems, and how it's still calling for a Tampa'ish landfall?

I only caught the tail end of the broadcast.

I also thought I heard him mention a "gut" feeling about strengthing. DId you catch that?

I'm sorry I missed his forecast this morning. Steve Jerve is by far the best meteorologist in the Tampa Bay area. No hype, no drama--he gives us the info necessary to make educated decisions. The VIPIR model did, indeed, indicate Charley would make landfall south of the predicted path up the Tampa Bay. Jerve was as surprised and relieved when the VIPIR model panned out for that storm as the rest of us who stared at each blip on the radar screen.

VIPIR's forecast for Charley was accurate 2 days before but moved the path up to Tampa the day before. If you go back to NHC advisories they were accurate from 2 days before also. Channel 8 did a very good job in their promotions department by grabbing that weather from wednesday evening before Charley hit and used it to their advantage.

[Stratusxpeye]

Vipir is only for that channel tv mets and some other ppl around. Its nothing that out to the public though. It did hit charley dead on with the ne turn well before any other model and has been right with alberto and a few other storms. Its a good channel i like to watch here for that model only to get it's input. Dont have cable this week though so wont be watching it. You all say it still has it coming in tampa area? pinellas or hillsbourough?

[melhow]

I don't have access to VIPIR, sorry no link to provide.
I saw Steve Jerve's model run on TV late last night and this morning heard on 970 WFLA, that meteorologist also uses VIPIR, confirmed what I saw last night.

Yesterday's VIPIR run was anomolous, it had a cat 2/3 storm skirting by tampa to the west. It had some bad data ingested and shouldn't have been shown on TV yesterday. We did not show it. This mornings run is the same now as the earlier runs from yesterday showing a FT myers landfall, then heading north.

http://www.baynews9.com/content/36/2006 ... 0northwest

Click on the video for this mornings update.

Look at You!

so...what that scenerio would mean for the tampa area is mainly some breezy conditions, if anything, and an occasional rain band?

[Jim Cantore]

Some models are still calling for a West Coast landfall it seems, However, they're a few of the worst models.

http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_05.gif

[Myersgirl]

according to that model chart there is only one model not going in on the west coast, am I seeing this wrong?

[Jim Cantore]

according to that model chart there is only one model not going in on the west coast, am I seeing this wrong?

I meant actually going UP the west coast but you aren't misreading it.

[westmoon]

melhow,

so...what that scenerio would mean for the tampa area is mainly some breezy conditions, if anything, and an occasional rain band?

Lets hope so, the only good thing under this case is we should be on the weaker side of the storm

[fox13weather]

Local meteorologist, Steve Jerve and his Vipir model still shows a TS coming near Tampa Bay....very interesting indeed. Let's see if this pans out.

Did you hear this on the radio this morning? Station 97.9, I think? Where Steve J. was talking about how VIPIR had nailed Charley and a few other systems, and how it's still calling for a Tampa'ish landfall?

I only caught the tail end of the broadcast.

I also thought I heard him mention a "gut" feeling about strengthing. DId you catch that?

I'm sorry I missed his forecast this morning. Steve Jerve is by far the best meteorologist in the Tampa Bay area. No hype, no drama--he gives us the info necessary to make educated decisions. The VIPIR model did, indeed, indicate Charley would make landfall south of the predicted path up the Tampa Bay. Jerve was as surprised and relieved when the VIPIR model panned out for that storm as the rest of us who stared at each blip on the radar screen.

VIPIR's forecast for Charley was accurate 2 days before but moved the path up to Tampa the day before. If you go back to NHC advisories they were accurate from 2 days before also. Channel 8 did a very good job in their promotions department by grabbing that weather from wednesday evening before Charley hit and used it to their advantage.

The VIPIR "model" has been wrong many more times than it has been right the past few seasons. We do not consider it a tropical model of choice and only show it when we believe that it has a legit chance of verifying. We animate the GFDL model on the air and promote it. It is a FAR superior model than what VIPIR uses. The GFDL was improved during the "offseason".

[Stratusxpeye]

GFDL AND GFS Both have west coast. Only model who doesnt is NOGAPS.



Interesting have to wait for the new run ernesto is not behaved TS although hes a very weak little thing so hopefully he wont be much.

[Sanibel]

Think we are in the clear here in SW Florida. It was headed right for us at 4am this morning. We said to ourselves "it would have to take a screeching right turn to miss us at this point", and what does it do? It takes a screeching right turn.