Where will Chris go?

[wxmann_91]

I will favor northern Mexico, just don't see how a hurricane can punch through a ridge like that. If I had a track, it would be WNW, then a turn to the W or even WSW near the Keys.

[HouTXmetro]

I'll throw my 2 cents in. After looking at all the new model data (upper air and all) i say the middle to lower Texas coast.

Thanks for your input.

[Rainband]

I'll throw my 2 cents in. After looking at all the new model data (upper air and all) i say the middle to lower Texas coast.

Thats a long throw I will wait to pass judgement on long term (5+ days) until we see what he does in the next 48 hours. IMO it appears to be more north of WNW still. Wont know for sure until we get recon though. I would no rule out a SE FL to panhandle track. CLimo for what its worth says east coast, but climo is climo...

looking at the sat. It is north of the forecast points.But the ULL and the High will be the players here. Recon will tell the tale better.

[Extremeweatherguy]

I'll throw my 2 cents in. After looking at all the new model data (upper air and all) i say the middle to lower Texas coast.

Thats a long throw I will wait to pass judgement on long term (5+ days) until we see what he does in the next 48 hours. IMO it appears to be more north of WNW still. Wont know for sure until we get recon though. I would no rule out a SE FL to panhandle track. CLimo for what its worth says east coast, but climo is climo...

the only way this would hit the panhandle is if some major weakness in the ridge developed and lasted for a few days. This looks unlikely.

[KFDM Meteorologist]

All you can do right now.

[Extremeweatherguy]

I will favor northern Mexico, just don't see how a hurricane can punch through a ridge like that. If I had a track, it would be WNW, then a turn to the W or even WSW near the Keys.

That's what we thought with Rita this far out too, and look what she did. I still think it's a bit early to narrow down an exact landfall area.

[dwg71]

again we are talking a week from now if that happend 150+ hours away - a lot can change. I'm wishin' for dissapation, but preparing for intensification (spoken in the voice of Johnny Cochran)

[deltadog03]

just remember....Or think of it this way. As the second ridge builds in it will go west or maybe a hair north of due west. Anyway, the further this rides around 295 or so the chances for a DR or maybe even cuba hit goes down imo.

[JBP]

Who knows. Katrina baffled everyone several times, so although it may look like Chris could go more westerly, I'll let my guard down after landfall where ever that may be

[KFDM Meteorologist]

We also have to stop and think hey it's August not late September like with Rita.

[Air Force Met]

Well based on history only one storm made it into the GOM, so anything is possible.

Can you tell me what everyone is basing this on? I know August...but what sample size and what distance from the current location?

Using 60nm either side of the current location (on teh HURREVAC 2006 FEMA tool)...I see 4 which were TS and cat 1's in the target area. One goes into the NE GOM (1939)...two go near BRO...one in 1932...another in 1933. Fredrick passed right over this area in 1979...

The total number of storms passing through the box was 20. So...it was 4 out of 20....roughly 20%.

Of the 4 storms...the two that went near BRO were the ones that clipped the box on the NORTH side.

[deltadog03]

great point KFDM....Plus the ridge is abnormally strong this year. I don't think many can really argue with that.

[PTrackerLA]

Major hurricanes tend to want to turn poleward in the GOM. Just look what happened with Rita when all the models showed southern Texas. Anyone from Brownsville to the panhandle need to keep tabs on this system it could be anyone's storm.

[cheezyWXguy]

Who knows. Katrina baffled everyone several times, so although it may look like Chris could go more westerly, I'll let my guard down after landfall where ever that may be

You cant just assume this will dive south like Katrina did...its a different pattern, different time of year, and a different location.

[KFDM Meteorologist]

Another thing to models sometimes are to fast moving upper highs out especially this time of year. Drought continues in North Texas and Oklahoma so i would think the slower movement of the upper high this weekend over the southern plains.

[Air Force Met]

I'll throw my 2 cents in. After looking at all the new model data (upper air and all) i say the middle to lower Texas coast.

That is where I am throwing my VERY PREMATURE two cents in right now as well.

All of the globals are keeping the ridge in place to the north through next week. There's no trof timing issues to deal with. I think it ridge the ridge westward....like Gilbert.

Things can change...but that is my gut call.

[Rainband]

Well based on history only one storm made it into the GOM, so anything is possible.

Can you tell me what everyone is basing this on? I know August...but what sample size and what distance from the current location?

Using 60nm either side of the current location (on teh HURREVAC 2006 FEMA tool)...I see 4 which were TS and cat 1's in the target area. One goes into the NE GOM (1939)...two go near BRO...one in 1932...another in 1933. Fredrick passed right over this area in 1979...

The total number of storms passing through the box was 20. So...it was 4 out of 20....roughly 20%.

Of the 4 storms...the two that went near BRO were the ones that clipped the box on the NORTH side.

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... climo.html

I was wrong it was two

[KFDM Meteorologist]

I'll throw my 2 cents in. After looking at all the new model data (upper air and all) i say the middle to lower Texas coast.

That is where I am throwing my VERY PREMATURE two cents in right now as well.

All of the globals are keeping the ridge in place to the north through next week. There's no trof timing issues to deal with. I think it ridge the ridge westward....like Gilbert.

Things can change...but that is my gut call.

Good post. Someone keeps going back to Rita, well Rita was late September and upper patterns move more quickly in late September.

[Portastorm]

I'll throw my 2 cents in. After looking at all the new model data (upper air and all) i say the middle to lower Texas coast.

That is where I am throwing my VERY PREMATURE two cents in right now as well.

All of the globals are keeping the ridge in place to the north through next week. There's no trof timing issues to deal with. I think it ridge the ridge westward....like Gilbert.

Things can change...but that is my gut call.

I was worried you were going to say that!

[deltadog03]

Not too mention Rita had a weakness that it moved into as well.