Invest 99L E of Lesser Antilles,Comments,Sat Pics,Etc #3

Trugunzn · #121 Postby **Trugunzn** » Sun Jul 30, 2006 11:06 am

The gfdl makes it into a hurricane huricane:

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

Noles2006 · #122 Postby **Noles2006** » Sun Jul 30, 2006 11:09 am

Dean4Storms wrote:Those banding features I see are outflows which do not represent a LLC.

Which is not good for a "developing" system.

If you guys want those who say "Sorry, this thing isn't going to develop" to stop posting their one-liners, then it's only fair that you who say "this thing looks good, I give it a XX% chance of developing" and leave it at that to stop posting.

kenl01 · #123 Postby **kenl01** » Sun Jul 30, 2006 11:10 am

Even at the earliest opportunity for development, it would take at least 3 days, as no cyclones are expected through at least Tuesday at the moment:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atl ... testBW.gif

Derek Ortt · #124 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Sun Jul 30, 2006 11:10 am

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAREPRPD.shtml?

6 hourly recon starting tomorrow, though I am not sure if this will actually occur

vacanechaser · #125 Postby **vacanechaser** » Sun Jul 30, 2006 11:11 am

'CaneFreak wrote:Its not predicted to go into the Carribean for a very long period there bud....its predicted to be in the carribean for all of 24-48 hours then it will probably hit land, then it will probably go north of the islands into the Bahamas...now, the real question is "What will environmental conditions be like at that time IF it makes it north of the islands?"

also, if it does move in the direction that the models show, it will have to do battel with the Dominican Republic... Also known as a hurricanes worst nightmare... the moutains there will help shead it if the shear does not get it.... interesting though that it looks like it wants to turn up the coast.... looks like bill gray was on to something when he told me at the hurricane conference, "be ready in the carolinas, its your turn"

Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

vacanechaser · #126 Postby **vacanechaser** » Sun Jul 30, 2006 11:17 am

kenl01 wrote:Even at the earliest opportunity for development, it would take at least 3 days, as no cyclones are expected through at least Tuesday at the moment:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atl ... testBW.gif

that means nothing.... something can change in a matter of hours.... that is just a forecast based on conditions at the time.... one or two factors suddenly swing into its favor, boom, off to the races... although i donr see that happening right now.. just dont base it on what that map shows and that far out....

Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Rseaerch Team

kenl01 · #127 Postby **kenl01** » Sun Jul 30, 2006 11:28 am

Fine but when looking at the SAL layer I'd have to agree with the models prediction of no cyclones through Aug.1........... :wink:

"The wave is surrounded by a large area of dry, dust-laden air to its north and west. This dry air, plus wind shear of 10-20 knots, should make any development slow to occur."

'CaneFreak · #128 Postby **'CaneFreak** » Sun Jul 30, 2006 11:30 am

Ken, it is weak SAL at best and I would have to say this wave should have died out completely a long time ago if SAL was really having a major impact on this wave...or any other waves at that....

#129 Postby **cycloneye** » Sun Jul 30, 2006 11:31 am

Before the question comes about from where they will depart if they go tommorow to 99L,they will do so from ST Croix.

vacanechaser · #130 Postby **vacanechaser** » Sun Jul 30, 2006 11:33 am

kenl01 wrote:Fine but when looking at the SAL layer I'd have to agree with the models prediction of no cyclones through Aug.1...........

"The wave is surrounded by a large area of dry, dust-laden air to its north and west. This dry air, plus wind shear of 10-20 knots, should make any development slow to occur."

ohhh, i agree, i'm just saying dont take that as fact or whatever... some people in the past have and then seemed to be surprised.. thats all... :wink:

interesting the GFDL now makes it a hurricane... and looks like it wants to run the coast.. of course there were not enough frames in the run, but it looked like that is what it wanted to do with it...

Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

vacanechaser · #131 Postby **vacanechaser** » Sun Jul 30, 2006 11:34 am

'CaneFreak wrote:Ken, it is weak SAL at best and I would have to say this wave should have died out completely a long time ago if SAL was really having a major impact on this wave...or any other waves at that....

good point.... it seems to wanta LIVE!!

Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

shaggy · #132 Postby **shaggy** » Sun Jul 30, 2006 11:38 am

well i have not been impressed by 99l so far but when i look at the spin thats still there i guess you cant write it off as long as its spinning but it maybe the fat lady is warming up.On the other side of it the GFDL had a very interesting run and maybe this thing will fight thru all the negative factors and become something anyways.

Website · #133 Postby **Brent** » Sun Jul 30, 2006 11:42 am

Derek Ortt wrote:http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAREPRPD.shtml?

6 hourly recon starting tomorrow, though I am not sure if this will actually occur

WOW. I kinda have my doubts too... but it's obvious the NHC is still very interested.

kenl01 · #134 Postby **kenl01** » Sun Jul 30, 2006 11:44 am

I am absolutely unconvinced of the GFDL idea in this situation. None of the other models support such an idea............

"None of the other models buy this solution, and predict that wind shear and dry air will keep this wave from developing. Even if the wave does develop, a strong upper-level cold low north of the Bahamas will bring very hostile wind shear to any storm that tries to approach the U.S. East Coast. The GFDL model reflects this, and has the storm weakening as it crosses into the Bahama Islands late in the week."

Eyewall · #135 Postby **Eyewall** » Sun Jul 30, 2006 11:46 am

True even the NAM doesn't make it anything...

https://www.youtube.com/user/senorpepr · #136 Postby **senorpepr** » Sun Jul 30, 2006 11:50 am

Remember, most of these track and intensity models are made for systems that are actually tropical cyclones. This isn't a tropical cyclone. There is no closed low. This is a wave.

ronjon · #137 Postby **ronjon** » Sun Jul 30, 2006 11:51 am

Actually the 12Z GFS doesn't close the system off (keeps the vorticity) as a strong wave. It takes this system into SE FL in about 7 days. It shows high pressure building off the carolina coast next weekend. A long way off and lots of changes but interesting nonetheless.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

rockyman · #138 Postby **rockyman** » Sun Jul 30, 2006 11:53 am

The latest GFDL weakens the system because it crosses Hispaniola...then strengthens it again over the Bahamas...going from 1006 mb on the north coast of Hispaniola down to 998.4 mb over the Bahamas.

cheezyWXguy · #139 Postby **cheezyWXguy** » Sun Jul 30, 2006 11:56 am

does it still take it in as a cat 2 to hispaniola? Honestly, I think its gonna track more westward

rockyman · #140 Postby **rockyman** » Sun Jul 30, 2006 11:58 am

GFDL shows 85 knots winds above the surface...probably a Cat 1 on the ground

Invest 99L E of Lesser Antilles,Comments,Sat Pics,Etc #3

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