Ex-96L Invest,Comments

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Post Reply
Message
Author
HurricaneHunter914
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4439
Age: 31
Joined: Fri Mar 10, 2006 7:36 pm
Location: College Station, TX

#121 Postby HurricaneHunter914 » Wed Jul 12, 2006 10:54 am

Jeff Masters thinks this has the possibility to become a TD today!
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Top
User avatar
canegrl04
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2486
Joined: Thu Aug 26, 2004 5:37 pm
Location: Texas

#122 Postby canegrl04 » Wed Jul 12, 2006 10:55 am

That wave is still chugging along.Amazing 8-) I don't see any reason why it wont eventually become a TD.
Last edited by canegrl04 on Wed Jul 12, 2006 11:00 am, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   
Top
HurricaneHunter914
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4439
Age: 31
Joined: Fri Mar 10, 2006 7:36 pm
Location: College Station, TX

#123 Postby HurricaneHunter914 » Wed Jul 12, 2006 10:56 am

But Jeff said that this may not survive past Thurday.
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Top
HurricaneHunter914
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4439
Age: 31
Joined: Fri Mar 10, 2006 7:36 pm
Location: College Station, TX

#124 Postby HurricaneHunter914 » Wed Jul 12, 2006 10:57 am

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... wg8sht.GIF

Looking at this shear tendacy map this Invest is over some increasing shear.
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Top
Scorpion

#125 Postby Scorpion » Wed Jul 12, 2006 10:59 am

Doesn't look the shear is increasing over the system right now.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Thunder44
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5922
Age: 44
Joined: Mon Jun 09, 2003 7:53 pm
Location: New York City

#126 Postby Thunder44 » Wed Jul 12, 2006 11:02 am

HurricaneHunter914 wrote:http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8sht.GIF

Looking at this shear tendacy map this Invest is over some increasing shear.


It doesn't look that way to me. If it stays far enough south it would be heading into the SE Carribean where shear is decreasing between 10kts and 20kts. If you go by that map.
0 likes   
Top
HurricaneHunter914
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4439
Age: 31
Joined: Fri Mar 10, 2006 7:36 pm
Location: College Station, TX

#127 Postby HurricaneHunter914 » Wed Jul 12, 2006 11:09 am

Whoops I was looking at the wrong coordinates. :lol:

Actually this wave has some pretty good outflow if you ask me.
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Top
User avatar
skysummit
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 5305
Age: 49
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 11:09 pm
Location: Ponchatoula, LA
Contact:
Contact skysummit

#128 Postby skysummit » Wed Jul 12, 2006 11:12 am

I do believe this is the longest it has held its convection together. It'll likely decrease again later (if not, I'll be thoroughly impressed), and then re-gain more convection tonight and tomorrow morning. If each pulse gets better and better, I so no reason why it won't be able to keep itself together through the Carribean....especially if conditions improve a tad.

Image
0 likes   
Top
curtadams
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1122
Joined: Sun Aug 28, 2005 7:57 pm
Location: Orange, California
Contact:
Contact curtadams

#129 Postby curtadams » Wed Jul 12, 2006 11:17 am

This pulse is over. The current burst has taken the fuzzy look of leftover cloudtops.
0 likes   
Top
Kennethb
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 506
Joined: Thu Aug 14, 2003 7:15 am
Location: Baton Rouge

#130 Postby Kennethb » Wed Jul 12, 2006 11:19 am

Asymetrical shape shows the strong west winds. Too, 96 is about to enter the dead zone for tropical systems.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
drezee
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 3664
Joined: Mon Jun 09, 2003 12:49 pm
Location: FL

#131 Postby drezee » Wed Jul 12, 2006 11:23 am

Have a feeling that....barbados will find a way to stop putting out Obs during the passage of the low pressure...something always happens...
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
rjgator
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 160
Joined: Sat Sep 06, 2003 9:03 pm
Location: Parkland, Florida

#132 Postby rjgator » Wed Jul 12, 2006 11:54 am

I have never seen the NHC bounce back in forth so much in the outlooks. Every six hours they change from development not expected to development if any will be slow to occur and the system is look a little better organized or has increasing shower activity. I wish this would poof or develop.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
drezee
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 3664
Joined: Mon Jun 09, 2003 12:49 pm
Location: FL

#133 Postby drezee » Wed Jul 12, 2006 12:36 pm

Barbados 28 mph sustained winds

http://www.wunderground.com/history/air ... atename=NA
0 likes   
Top
gopherfan21
Tropical Depression
Tropical Depression
Posts: 54
Joined: Wed Jul 12, 2006 12:08 pm
Location: Minneapolis, MN

#134 Postby gopherfan21 » Wed Jul 12, 2006 12:38 pm

I just don't see this developing unless it encounters more favorable conditions in the west
0 likes   
Top
HurricaneHunter914
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4439
Age: 31
Joined: Fri Mar 10, 2006 7:36 pm
Location: College Station, TX

#135 Postby HurricaneHunter914 » Wed Jul 12, 2006 12:38 pm

Almost near TD force winds Jeff Masters might be right about a possible TD today.
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Top
Scorpion

#136 Postby Scorpion » Wed Jul 12, 2006 12:39 pm

The key thing is the wind direction.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
drezee
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 3664
Joined: Mon Jun 09, 2003 12:49 pm
Location: FL

#137 Postby drezee » Wed Jul 12, 2006 12:39 pm

HurricaneHunter914 wrote:Almost near TD force winds Jeff Masters might be right about a possible TD today.


TD Force is 20mph or above
0 likes   
Top
gopherfan21
Tropical Depression
Tropical Depression
Posts: 54
Joined: Wed Jul 12, 2006 12:08 pm
Location: Minneapolis, MN

#138 Postby gopherfan21 » Wed Jul 12, 2006 12:41 pm

Yes, just because something has 30 mph winds doesn't mean it is a tropical depression, it needs to have circulation.

And actually, the correct defintion of a TD is winds below 39 MPH with a cyclonic surface circulation.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
drezee
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 3664
Joined: Mon Jun 09, 2003 12:49 pm
Location: FL

#139 Postby drezee » Wed Jul 12, 2006 12:41 pm

gopherfan21 wrote:Yes, just because something has 30 mph winds doesn't mean it is a tropical depression, it needs to have circulation.

And actually, the correct defintion of a TD is winds below 39 MPH with a cyclonic surface circulation.


The NHC does not classify less than 20
0 likes   
Top
gopherfan21
Tropical Depression
Tropical Depression
Posts: 54
Joined: Wed Jul 12, 2006 12:08 pm
Location: Minneapolis, MN

#140 Postby gopherfan21 » Wed Jul 12, 2006 12:43 pm

You haven't read many post-landfall HPC Advisories, have you?

There, it is still classified as a tropical depression until it has extratropical characteristics.
0 likes   
Top
Post Reply

Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Hurricaneman, Lizzytiz1 and 35 guests