Invest 90L,W.Caribbean,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread #8

[boca]

Benny the father east the center forms the less likelyhood of a big bend hit. Right now I guessing on the direction this will go. Tomorrow is another day.

[HurricaneHunter914]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/avn.jpg

The NHC said,"A TD can form at any time". It looks like we have a TD now.

[DESTRUCTION5]

I don't know about you all but just looking at the satellite presentation this evening it certainly looks like it should be a depression already. I have seen some depressions look worse than this thing. Its looking very tropical on the sat pics with outflow starting to happen.

LOL Would you make up your mind..YOu just saud Conv was dying off...

[gatorcane]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/avn.jpg

The NHC said,"A TD can form at any time". It looks like we have a TD now.

Yeah I wouldn't be surprise if within the next few hours they upgrade it follks - it's looking really impressive now.

[Stormcenter]

After the last two hurricane seasons,especially 2005 I wouldnt rule out anything happening with this system. It looks like a good bet already that it will become Alberto and make land on the US coast,although I still have a hard time imagining Alberto as a cane

My sentiments exactly. I still never forget all of those who were so sure Katrina was headed toward Florida again after entering the GOM. Anyway, I also have a hard time believing she will make it to hurricane strength.

[Ivanhater]

Is it just me, I see the models moving this thing north or NNW then slowing it down before moving it to the North East, am I seeing that slowing down right?

[gatorcane]

I don't know about you all but just looking at the satellite presentation this evening it certainly looks like it should be a depression already. I have seen some depressions look worse than this thing. Its looking very tropical on the sat pics with outflow starting to happen.

LOL Would you make up your mind..YOu just saud Conv was dying off...

It is a little but still it looks like a depression to me - I think it will refire with no problem though.

[Tampa_God]

I don't know about you all but just looking at the satellite presentation this evening it certainly looks like it should be a depression already. I have seen some depressions look worse than this thing. Its looking very tropical on the sat pics with outflow starting to happen.

I also see agood outflow, more on the sourthern side than on the northside of this system. Wouldn't be surprise if it is a TD, but looks like it formed east from where we all thought it would.

[Extremeweatherguy]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/avn.jpg

The NHC said,"A TD can form at any time". It looks like we have a TD now.

I agree, and it probably is, but since there is no immediate threat to land (as in a landfall), and it is not a TS, the NHC is probably holding back until tonight or tomorrow.

[Air Force Met]

I don't know about you all but just looking at the satellite presentation this evening it certainly looks like it should be a depression already. I have seen some depressions look worse than this thing. Its looking very tropical on the sat pics with outflow starting to happen.

It would be nice to know what the pressures are out there. Certainly in the 1005 mb range.

For the record...I think this thing will get going somewhere around 82W and around 20N...give or take 60 miles....once it finally gets going. Probably tomorrow when recon gets there.

[gatorcane]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/avn.jpg

The NHC said,"A TD can form at any time". It looks like we have a TD now.

I agree, and it probably is, but since there is no immediate threat to land (as in a landfall), and it is not a TS, the NHC is probably holding back until tonight or tomorrow.

I wonder if the NHC is being conservative considering that it has rapidly developed into a possible depression when earlier they only called for slow development if best. (that was about 2 days ago they didn't seem that interested in it).

In other words if they had upgraded it already - then it would start to scare people knowing it has alot of time over water still.

[benny]

Benny the father east the center forms the less likelyhood of a big bend hit. Right now I guessing on the direction this will go. Tomorrow is another day.

True enough.. I'm thinking that Tampa might be an interesting place to be during this one...anything that parallels the west coast of florida can move inland in short notice (See Charley 04). The trough that comes down during the 2 day timeframe will shove whatever there northeastward.. how much northward progress the system is made is critical. Second-guessing the models will give you heartache though

[Tampa_God]

Have they flown a plane out there yet?

[lester]

Have they flown a plane out there yet?

no

[wxmann_91]

It is not a depression as the LLC isn't well defined yet. Though it has good ventilation on all sides except the west, that does not necessarily mean it has attained TC status.

[Scorpion]

I am thinking that it could miss the trough and sit down there for a little while and intensify.

[boca]

I don't know about you all but just looking at the satellite presentation this evening it certainly looks like it should be a depression already. I have seen some depressions look worse than this thing. Its looking very tropical on the sat pics with outflow starting to happen.

It would be nice to know what the pressures are out there. Certainly in the 1005 mb range.

For the record...I think this thing will get going somewhere around 82W and around 20N...give or take 60 miles....once it finally gets going. Probably tomorrow when recon gets there.

Aren't their bouys out in that area.

[cycloneye]

Have they flown a plane out there yet?

Tommorow afternoon around 2 PM a mission will be reaching the system with takeoff around 11:30 AM EDT.

[DESTRUCTION5]

I don't know about you all but just looking at the satellite presentation this evening it certainly looks like it should be a depression already. I have seen some depressions look worse than this thing. Its looking very tropical on the sat pics with outflow starting to happen.

It would be nice to know what the pressures are out there. Certainly in the 1005 mb range.

For the record...I think this thing will get going somewhere around 82W and around 20N...give or take 60 miles....once it finally gets going. Probably tomorrow when recon gets there.

Yea, This thing is a TD now Airforce..Ive seen Much worse classified...

[rockyman]

I'm hoping this season we can have a little less of the conspiracy theories that the NHC is withholding info to keep from "scaring people" or to cover their collective you know whats...I think the NHC will upgrade the system when they believe it's a depression...not sooner...not later.