Nice S. Caribbean flare-up 6/1/06 -- 6/4/06......

[x-y-no]

No development for the time being stated by one of my favorite forcasters.AVILA.

Are you serious? Avila is one of your favorites?

The more time goes by, the more respect I have for the rigor and professionalism of Avila's work. I may not find his discussions the most stimulating of reading, but the quality of information is excellent.

I admit that when Derek Ortt opined way back when that Avila was the best of the NHC, I had something of the same reaction. But further consideration has tempered my opinion.

[Brent]

BUT IT IS DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE IF
IT IS DIRECTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE CURRENT LOW.

Your right it has a .00000000001 chance

its a small chance i know but hey thats about all weve got in the atlantic right now.

It's June 3rd, relax. You'll get your storms eventually....don't worry.

LOL.

[cycloneye]

069
ABNT20 KNHC 032115
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT SAT JUN 03 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR SAN ANDRES
ISLAND. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT.

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.

FORECASTER BEVEN




Nothing to be excited about in terms of something developing here.

[tailgater]

ok but if this surface feature continues to have thunderstorms fire near the center i think it has to be watched for some development.

THIS SYSTEM IS WELL
EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS SO
TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT IS VERY UNLIKELY. That says it all

Right now this thing is not embedded in any flow, it's been down there for 3 days. now it may get picked up by the approaching trough or might not, some models have it moving northwest or west into the Epac. If you don't think there's a chance or any development, why keep coming back to this thread.
I mean no ill will, just seemed like your jumping on Christy.

[CHRISTY]

ok but if this surface feature continues to have thunderstorms fire near the center i think it has to be watched for some development.

THIS SYSTEM IS WELL
EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS SO
TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT IS VERY UNLIKELY. That says it all

Right now this thing is not embedded in any flow, it's been down there for 3 days. now it may get picked up by the approaching trough or might not, some models have it moving northwest or west into the Epac. If you don't think there's a chance or any development, why keep coming back to this thread.
I mean no ill will, just seemed like your jumping on Christy.

Nope...actually fast upper level winds will not allow this to develope...so like everyone has been saying just another test.

[tailgater]

ok but if this surface feature continues to have thunderstorms fire near the center i think it has to be watched for some development.

THIS SYSTEM IS WELL
EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS SO
TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT IS VERY UNLIKELY. That says it all

Right now this thing is not embedded in any flow, it's been down there for 3 days. now it may get picked up by the approaching trough or might not, some models have it moving northwest or west into the Epac. If you don't think there's a chance or any development, why keep coming back to this thread.
I mean no ill will, just seemed like your jumping on Christy. [/quote
Alright can we get a mod to close this thread since it has no chance to develop now or later in the Epac or just hangs around down there, according to the above.

Nope...actually fast upper level winds will not allow this to develope...so like everyone has been saying just another test.

[rockyman]

805p TWD:

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH THAT COVERS THE E GULF ALSO DIGS INTO THE
NW CARIBBEAN. A MID/UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN EAST OF
75W. INTERESTING SURFACE FEATURE IS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
LOCATED OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR SAN ANDRES ISLAND...WITH A
TROUGH EXTENDING NORTH TO THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. SHOWERS AND TSTMS
ARE DEVELOPING JUST NORTH AND EAST OF THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER.
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT.
THE LATEST GFS RUN MOVES THE LOW WWD INTO NICARAGUA DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS WHILE THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO ENHANCE THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER EASTERN CUBA...JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS AS IT ALSO CONTINUES TO MOVE WWD. 10-15 KT TRADE WINDS
DOMINATES THE BASIN MAINLY EAST OF 75W. CONTINUED UNSETTLED
WEATHER IS LIKELY ACROSS THE W AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN DUE TO THE
AFOREMENTIONED LOW/TROUGH.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 2343.shtml?

[dixiebreeze]

I think it's watchable. If persistence is a key factor, it's watchable.

[Extremeweatherguy]

It is starting to look much better on infrared.

[rockyman]

depends on where the center of low pressure is located...if it's to the south, then all of the convection has disappeared...if it's to the north, then I'll agree that IR is looking better...

[CHRISTY]

IR image....

[gatorcane]

gents and ladies this system is looking ominously good tonight. In fact it has persisted there for more than 24 hours and appears that it refuses to get pulled NE by the front (as I suspected originally given it is June and where it is located).

With that said, if we see persistent convection this time tomorrow Alberto will be close to follow everybody

[wxman57]

It is starting to look much better on infrared.

Definitely watchable. You can watch it be ripped apart by increasing southwesterly wind shear. Water vapor loops show a southwesterly jet digging into the NW Caribbean now. Convection not only has to be persistent, it has to be persistent in the same spot. That hasn't happened yet and it's not likely to with such strong southwesterly winds aloft. Let's hope this thing goes away. I already have to go to work at 6:30am to put out the tropical outlook and video.

[gatorcane]

I give it a 40% chance of development now....I'll reevaluate tomorrow.

[wxman57]

I give it a 40% chance of development now....I'll reevaluate tomorrow.

Somewhere between 1 and 1.5%

[gatorcane]

Somewhere between 1 and 1.5%

I think we have a disagreement here (you are probably right though, just tooka look at the US Water Vapor loop which shows a huge trough that continues to dig down into the SE that should keep the shear strong through the NW Caribbean. Looks more like a winter-time setup)

I think I'll lower my percentage to 25%

[CHRISTY]

yea guys this thing wont go away...despite the southwesterly jet digging in the NW caribbean.If this thing is here flareing by tommorow we might have something in our hands.

[gatorcane]

I think that trough is so strong it is pulling TD 2E in the EPAC with it. (Of course the trough is not the reason though)

Looks alot like winter time still folks

[gatorcane]

yea guys this thing wont go away...despite the southwesterly jet digging in the NW caribbean.If this thing is here flareing by tommorow we might have something in our hands.

One thing that is interesting to note is that we are seeing yet another example of a system fighting of hostile conditions. We saw a couple of examples this past winter (where the shear ultimately prevailed) but now that we are moving into summer - can this system win the battle?

[wxman57]

Somewhere between 1 and 1.5%

I think we have a disagreement here (you are probably right though, just tooka look at the US Water Vapor loop which shows a huge trough that continues to dig down into the SE that should keep the shear strong through the NW Caribbean. Looks more like a winter-time setup)

I think I'll lower my percentage to 25%

Remember, I absolutely DO NOT want to see a single significant disturbance before at least mid August. So I have a strong no-develop bias.

If you ever see me talking about development, watch out!