Debate among scientists about Global Warming vs Active Cycle

[sponger]

All right, my final weigh in (No promises). I dont think the two are mutually exclusive. Dr Grey obviously knows better than anyone here that sst play a major role in intesnity and frequency.

The point is that global warming is not effecting water tempertures. Try to heat a large bowl of water by increasing the air temp by 1 degree. You will be waiting a long time!

Air does a terrible job of heating water, especially the volume of the earths oceans. Any diver will know the entire atmosphere weighs as much as the first 33 feet of ocean. The sun is the dominant factor in ocean temps.

Its always nice to cover warming and cooling with one theory. If this year is hot, its global warming. If it is cold it is global warming. If it doesnt change....???

[curtadams]

The point is that global warming is not effecting water tempertures. Try to heat a large bowl of water by increasing the air temp by 1 degree. You will be waiting a long time!

Air does a terrible job of heating water, especially the volume of the earths oceans. Any diver will know the entire atmosphere weighs as much as the first 33 feet of ocean. The sun is the dominant factor in ocean temps.

Sorry, but no. The ocean is in equilibration between heat gained from the sun and heat lost by - little green men running air conditioners? No, exchange with the atmosphere and the ice caps - which in turn exchange with the atmosphere. Exchange with the atmosphere is critical. Barring radiation, which is relatively minor, all the heat in the ocean gets out through the atmosphere. There's nowhere else to go.

As I pointed out in an earlier post, oceanic *heat capacity* is a critical limiting factor on hurricanes. So the atmosphere is not just the primary regulator of ocean temperatures, it can be a fast regulator - an atmospheric process can suck several degrees out of the ocean down to several hundred feet in only a few days.

You are correct that on a global scale it's a slow process - it takes decades. Unfortunately, this is actually bad. We've *had* decades, yet only gotten about half the oceanic warming from GW so far - the rest is still underway as the ocean warms up by exchange with the atmosphere. So even if we stop all fossil fuel use tomorrow (hah!) we'll still get another degree or so of oceanic warming - about what swings the NA oscillation from normal to high. Very not good.

[sponger]

No one disputes that atmospheric processes cool the ocean via upwelling ect, the issue is how much does little old air do to heat it? Compared to the sun, negligible. It is the weakest part of the global warming arguement. IMHO!

[x-y-no]

No one disputes that atmospheric processes cool the ocean via upwelling ect, the issue is how much does little old air do to heat it? Compared to the sun, negligible. It is the weakest part of the global warming arguement. IMHO!

You're missing the point. The water is directly heated by sunlight, yes. But it is cooled by interaction with the atmosphere. If the atmosphere is warmer on average, then that cooling will be less effective on average. Hence the equilibrium temperature of the ocean rises.

[Sanibel]

Serious sign of hot seas.

[johngaltfla]

Okay my 2 cents worth. A speculative (highly, IMHO) is attributing the recent SST increases to underwater volcanic activity on the increase in the Indian and Atlantic Oceans.

Let's here it experts. The charts of SSTs are somewhat discomforting to those of us in the tropics and subtropics. If we are going to maintain a cycle of 2-3 degrees F above the norm, this would be major trouble for all coastal residents in North and eventually South America, IMHO.

Please shoot me down and make me feel better or tell me your opinons.

Time to buckle up and hunker down......

[curtadams]

Okay my 2 cents worth. A speculative (highly, IMHO) is attributing the recent SST increases to underwater volcanic activity on the increase in the Indian and Atlantic Oceans.

Let's here it experts. The charts of SSTs are somewhat discomforting to those of us in the tropics and subtropics. If we are going to maintain a cycle of 2-3 degrees F above the norm, this would be major trouble for all coastal residents in North and eventually South America, IMHO.

Please shoot me down and make me feel better or tell me your opinons.

Time to buckle up and hunker down......

Volcanos don't add up. Magma can't be above a few thousand degrees so to heat the oceans a degree you'd need magma measuring 1/1000th of the volume of the oceans - bigger than Iceland! That is NOT happening.

Both global warming and the North Atlantic SST cycle are real so we are definitely in for a long ride of active seasons. The number of landfalls these past two years *is* exceptional as it has been driven by atmospheric conditions preventing recurves which are not (as far as I can figure) tied to GW or the NAO.

[x-y-no]

Okay my 2 cents worth. A speculative (highly, IMHO) is attributing the recent SST increases to underwater volcanic activity on the increase in the Indian and Atlantic Oceans.

Let's here it experts. The charts of SSTs are somewhat discomforting to those of us in the tropics and subtropics. If we are going to maintain a cycle of 2-3 degrees F above the norm, this would be major trouble for all coastal residents in North and eventually South America, IMHO.

Please shoot me down and make me feel better or tell me your opinons.

Time to buckle up and hunker down......

Volcanos don't add up. Magma can't be above a few thousand degrees so to heat the oceans a degree you'd need magma measuring 1/1000th of the volume of the oceans - bigger than Iceland! That is NOT happening.

Both global warming and the North Atlantic SST cycle are real so we are definitely in for a long ride of active seasons. The number of landfalls these past two years *is* exceptional as it has been driven by atmospheric conditions preventing recurves which are not (as far as I can figure) tied to GW or the NAO.

Yes.

In addition, volcanic heating would imply warming of the abyssal ocean at least as large as the surface warming, and that isn't happening at all.