2026 Indicators: SST's, MSLP, Shear, SAL, Steering, Instability (Day 16+ Climate Models)

[DorkyMcDorkface]

The April CanSIPS run for ASO has very warm waters in the subtropics and not so warm for MDR.

https://i.imgur.com/8AAO2XO.png

Honestly we've seen worse, the MDR is still in decent shape there even even with the warm subtropics. With that being said I don't think that'll be enough to trigger a 2023-level countermeasure against ENSO.

[cycloneye]

The April CanSIPS run for ASO has very warm waters in the subtropics and not so warm for MDR.

https://i.imgur.com/8AAO2XO.png

Honestly we've seen worse, the MDR is still in decent shape there even even with the warm subtropics. With that being said I don't think that'll be enough to trigger a 2023-level countermeasure against ENSO.

No matter how warm the MDR may be by peak time, the El Niño shear will be plenty.

[DorkyMcDorkface]

It's trying...again the CFS and CanSIPS do think we're gonna see a decent warmup in the MDR headed into the season. I would like to believe this might give the basin some sporadic opportunities for MDR activity (again, E of 55W or so) in an otherwise hostile background state if it sustains itself.

[Category5Kaiju]

I know that there's rightfully a lot of interest in this upcoming season's total activity/ACE/impacts and that jazz. But what I'm personally very curious to see is if this season keeps the Atlantic's 11-year streak of producing a borderline or bona fide Category 5 system alive or not. 11 consecutive years of 155+ mph hurricanes is absolutely unprecedented in Atlantic recorded history, and one ought to think that such would come to an end at some point.

Whether it's pure luck that the Atlantic managed to generate a storm or more in the right place at the right time that they blow up into monsters the past 11 years or if something changed back in 2015 that ultimately raised the potential ceiling for storms in general, I think this year will be a good litmus test to the nature of this particular pattern. I think it would be quite telling if this season lives up to its below-average expectations, yet somehow produces a storm or two that attains such powerful strengths despite generally unfavorable background conditions.

[cycloneye]

Will not say more words. See and read for yourself in this Andrew Moore thread about the big picture from European seasonal.

 https://x.com/OSUWXGUY/status/2040780474251940220



 https://x.com/OSUWXGUY/status/2040780477611614630



 https://x.com/OSUWXGUY/status/2040780480648303085

[Category5Kaiju]

It's trying...again the CFS and CanSIPS do think we're gonna see a decent warmup in the MDR headed into the season. I would like to believe this might give the basin some sporadic opportunities for MDR activity (again, E of 55W or so) in an otherwise hostile background state if it sustains itself.
https://i.imgur.com/D21mrwV.png
https://i.imgur.com/Cpb55yW.png
https://i.imgur.com/ZOoM7hn.png

Appears fairly well on the NOAA map too. There's definitely a tangible difference that's starting to appear, especially compared to a week ago. We'll have to see how long and robust this period of warming lasts, but at this point going forward, every bit of deep tropical warming will be important in influencing how unstable the tropical Atlantic can get going into hurricane season.

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/RyanMaue/status/2040794876913000643

[zzzh]

I expect to see major cooling in the east MDR with some warming in the Caribbean in the next 2 weeks. Long range models like CFS and EC weeklies keep pushing back the -NAO since Feb, now showing it starting late April.

[LarryWx]

https://i.imgur.com/RGxpCOC.png
I expect to see major cooling in the east MDR with some warming in the Caribbean in the next 2 weeks. Long range models like CFS and EC weeklies keep pushing back the -NAO since Feb, now showing it starting late April.

The March NAO came in way up at +2.69, an obliteration of the old record high March NAO of +1.85 (1969) and second only to Nov of 1978’s +3.04 for the highest of any month since 1950!

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... scii.table

[869MB]

 https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/2040966255163670534



Ran my "SST difference" plots for the first time this year, to look at some possible analog years. One thing that jumps out about this year compared to 2023 is how much cooler the Atlantic is, and how much warmer the NE Pacific is. Those 2 things combined mean we should see a ton more shear than 2023. The ENSO regions aren't warming quite as fast as 2015 yet, but they seem comparable to 1997.

One of the top analogs when I looked at several different key regions (MDR, Canary Current, ENSO, PDO) was 1991, which had 8 TS, 4 H, 2 MH. I think that's a reasonable approximation for what we might see in the Atlantic this year. Note 1991 did have Hurricane Bob impact New England. The Southwest Atlantic/East Coast region tends to be a little less vulnerable to the raging TUTT/shear brought on by strong Niño events.

[cycloneye]

NMME precipitation outlook has the NATL mainly dry in most of MDR but with more humidity at subtropics.

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/AdrianLinares28/status/2041549844087501048

[cycloneye]

Analogs for TS frequency fron NMME. Bleak for NATL to say a word.

[cycloneye]

Precipitation and sst anomalies at NATL for ASO.

[CyclonicFury]

Here is what the NMME was showing in April 2023 vs. April 2026:




A much drier look for the NATL, especially the MDR, in 2026 overall. That is one of the reasons why I highly doubt the UA forecast will verify - by this time in 2023 it was apparent the MDR warmth could counteract the Nino.

[Yellow Evan]

ACE analog average of the ATL: 60 ACE
Tentative ACE forecast: 65 ACE

The MDR has continued its cooling trend in March. In addition the recent progression of +PMM and the likelihood of a strong to super El Niño later this year, the outlook has trended pessimistic. Yet this analog set has a few years that overachieved, in part due to the existence of a single long tracked storm (1957, 2015), or the West African monsoon (2018). I’m not sure this year will be so lucky.

[MarioProtVI]

I think it’s not crazy to say we could see the first non-C5 peak strongest storm of the season this year.

[Category5Kaiju]

I think it’s not crazy to say we could see the first non-C5 peak strongest storm of the season this year.

Just for clarification, I'm assuming you mean since 2022? Because the relatively recent years of 2015, 2020, and 2021 also featured non-Category 5s as their strongest storms (albeit very high-end Category 4s). 2014 had a mid-grade Category 4 as its strongest storm.

I agree that under these circumstances, it's not unreasonable to say that this season's strongest storm will peak as a Category 4 system at most. Many below-average Atlantic seasons were historically like this. But then again, overall below-average ACE is one part of the picture; exact, individual storm strength is something that seems to really depend on intraseasonal factors. You have below-average seasons like 1997 and 2009. And then you have below-average seasons like 1977 and 1992. Will be interesting to see just how durable the recent pattern/trend of Atlantic seasons producing near or bona fide Category 5s as their peak storms truly is.

[Zonacane]

Starting to believe the Atlantic might finally have a quiet year. Still have a long way to go, but a break after the past nine years would be perfect.

[weeniepatrol]

It's looking grim. First time I've ever been genuinely bearish (started tracking in 2016).