WeatherBoy2000 wrote:ConvergenceZone wrote:Wxman, I agree with ya. Fronts seem to be aggressive this late season. I think that anything that forms the rest of this season will probably be on the weak side. We are getting to the time of year where fronts get stronger and the gulf turns unfavorable like you mentioned. Other than this weak storm possible in the gulf that you mentioned, anything strong that forms will probably be pulled out to sea due to more fronts coming down and weaknesses developing. We are seeing that already with storms forming in the Atlantic. I'm fine with this though. It's already been a horrible year for folks with landfalling hurricanes.
We still have all of October to get through which is still prime time for gulf majors of this variety. Just because conditions might be unfavorable for this AOI doesn't mean they'll be unfavorable for something else later in the month.
I think a variable that will impact this storm’s potential peak intensity also is how far north or west in the gom it actually gets. More so in either or both directions would lead to a less favorable interaction with the approaching trough, while a further south track that cuts east would probably enhance it. I believe Ian’s deviation south of initial projections is why Ian exceeded intensity expectations. While a track like that seems to be climatologically favored this time of year, I don’t see a lot of model support for it at this time though.