Expert forecasts for 2023 North Atlantic Hurricane Season
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2023 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: UKMET=20/11/5
With so many entities (experts??) releasing seasonal outlooks (forecasts?) these days, I am beginning to feel those early days of seasonal outlooks by Bill Gray (1984 - ?) that simply said, "Normal, below normal, or above normal" was more appropriate for public awareness levels.
Last edited by canebeard on Fri May 26, 2023 5:16 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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List of 79 tropical cyclones intercepted by Richard Horodner:
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former storm2k screenname Beoumont 2009+
http://www.canebeard.com/page/page/572246.htm
former storm2k screenname Beoumont 2009+
- cainjamin
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2023 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: UKMET=20/11/5
The amount of spread between the different forecasting groups is very interesting. It'll be really interesting to come back at the end of the season and see who ended up getting it right; I think the UKMET forecast is a little extreme but then again I wouldn't be surprised if it ends up being close. Really shows how unpredictable this season is already.
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2023 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: UKMET=20/11/5
wxman57 wrote:LarryWx wrote:wxman57 wrote:Seems the UKMET office is discounting the El Nino and their shear prediction for the Caribbean may be too low.
But the UKMET has ASO of +1.84 in 3.4 as of their May forecast per this:
https://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/ ... -sst_table
Yeah, their forecast doesn't make sense.
One thing I'm wondering about is the concept of "RONI", a "relative" ONI that takes into account how warm the tropics over the entire globe are in relation to baseline (including the very warm MDR). Currently, the RONI is 0.4 cooler than ONI. So, the UKMET +1.8 ONI prediction is equivalent to only +1.4 RONI or a high end moderate instead of high end strong.
Your thoughts?
RONI: see figure 3a on page 6 of this:
https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1 ... abe9ed/pdf
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Re: Expert forecasts for 2023 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: UKMET=20/11/5
SFLcane wrote:wxman57 wrote:Seems the UKMET office is discounting the El Nino and their shear prediction for the Caribbean may be too low.
Noaa also hints at the possibilty of lower shear across the Caribbean.
https://i.postimg.cc/W3HLmqjQ/sst.jpg
Weaker Easterly trades (at least to me) implies far east Atlantic development and quick poleward recurve tracks. Could be a recipe for decent activity but this would also suggest an overall decreased risk to the Greater Antilles, Mexico, and U.S. (at least as a ratio of named T.S.'s)
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
- cycloneye
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2023 North Atlantic Hurricane Season
WeatherTiger has near normal season and elevated uncertainty. Read the 12/12 long twitter thread.
https://twitter.com/wx_tiger/status/1663918724007469060
https://twitter.com/wx_tiger/status/1663918727501365249
https://twitter.com/wx_tiger/status/1663918730617802761
https://twitter.com/wx_tiger/status/1663918732484157440
https://twitter.com/wx_tiger/status/1663918735399219213
https://twitter.com/wx_tiger/status/1663918737685184512
https://twitter.com/wx_tiger/status/1663918739618775043
https://twitter.com/wx_tiger/status/1663918742651170820
https://twitter.com/wx_tiger/status/1663918745536942082
https://twitter.com/wx_tiger/status/1663918748628140033
https://twitter.com/wx_tiger/status/1663918751626981386
https://twitter.com/wx_tiger/status/1663918755250937863
https://twitter.com/wx_tiger/status/1663918724007469060
https://twitter.com/wx_tiger/status/1663918727501365249
https://twitter.com/wx_tiger/status/1663918730617802761
https://twitter.com/wx_tiger/status/1663918732484157440
https://twitter.com/wx_tiger/status/1663918735399219213
https://twitter.com/wx_tiger/status/1663918737685184512
https://twitter.com/wx_tiger/status/1663918739618775043
https://twitter.com/wx_tiger/status/1663918742651170820
https://twitter.com/wx_tiger/status/1663918745536942082
https://twitter.com/wx_tiger/status/1663918748628140033
https://twitter.com/wx_tiger/status/1663918751626981386
https://twitter.com/wx_tiger/status/1663918755250937863
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- cycloneye
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2023 North Atlantic Hurricane Season
CSU will release the June forecast on Thursday at 11 AM EDT. He is teasing by posting those images.
https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1663937074112897024
https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1663937074112897024
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- cycloneye
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2023 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: TSR May preseason forecast=13/6/2
TSR adds one from the April forecast to the May forecast, now 13/6/2. The word uncertainty keeps being mentioned.
https://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/docs/ ... on2023.pdf
https://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/docs/ ... on2023.pdf
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- Category5Kaiju
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2023 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: TSR May preseason forecast=13/6/2
This might really be a season where predicting a dead-normal season, 14/7/3, might be the safest option
Impressive.
Impressive.
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2023 North Atlantic Hurricane Season
TSR May forecast is out.
I'm not sure which model they are looking at, all the models I am looking at have below average trade wind and a much warmer MDR.
The reason why the TSR pre-season forecast update for North Atlantic hurricane activity in 2023 calls
for ACE-activity around 25% below the 1991-2020 30-year climate norm is because the two predictors
that are used by the TSR primary model (§2.1) are collectively anticipated to suppress hurricane activity
in 2023. These predictors are the July-September forecast trade wind at 925mb height over the Caribbean
Sea and tropical North Atlantic (region 7.5°N–17.5°N, 30°W–100°W), and the August-September
forecast SST for the tropical North Atlantic (region 10°N–20°N, 20°W–60°W). The current forecast for
the July-September trade wind is for 0.53±0.79 ms-1
stronger than normal (1991-2020 climatology). The current forecast for the August-September SST is for 0.25±0.33°C warmer than normal (1991-2020
climatology).
for ACE-activity around 25% below the 1991-2020 30-year climate norm is because the two predictors
that are used by the TSR primary model (§2.1) are collectively anticipated to suppress hurricane activity
in 2023. These predictors are the July-September forecast trade wind at 925mb height over the Caribbean
Sea and tropical North Atlantic (region 7.5°N–17.5°N, 30°W–100°W), and the August-September
forecast SST for the tropical North Atlantic (region 10°N–20°N, 20°W–60°W). The current forecast for
the July-September trade wind is for 0.53±0.79 ms-1
stronger than normal (1991-2020 climatology). The current forecast for the August-September SST is for 0.25±0.33°C warmer than normal (1991-2020
climatology).
I'm not sure which model they are looking at, all the models I am looking at have below average trade wind and a much warmer MDR.
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- wxman57
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2023 North Atlantic Hurricane Season
cycloneye wrote:CSU will release the June forecast on Thursday at 11 AM EDT. He is teasing by posting those images.
I could tease you a little more and say that I've already discussed his updated numbers with him. He's looking at everything. One thing that doesn't make sense is the UKMET forecast of a very active season along with their predicted strong El Nino. Phil & I came up with the exact same numbers (including ACE) independently. I'll be tuning into hear his update tomorrow.
You can subscribe and watch the update here: https://form.jotform.com/200957673524057
P.S.
Just talked with Phil. His numbers tomorrow WILL include the January subtropical storm.
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- cycloneye
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2023 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: CSU=15/7/3
CSU= 15/7/3 The tradition donuts.
https://tropical.colostate.edu/Forecast/2023-06.pdf
https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1664286177657257987
https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1664286680818282497
https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1664287687174397952
https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1664288442237304834
https://tropical.colostate.edu/Forecast/2023-06.pdf
https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1664286177657257987
https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1664286680818282497
https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1664287687174397952
https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1664288442237304834
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- cycloneye
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2023 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: CSU=15/7/3
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- AnnularCane
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2023 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: CSU=15/7/3
cycloneye wrote:CSU= 15/7/3 The tradition donuts.
https://tropical.colostate.edu/Forecast/2023-06.pdf
https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1664286177657257987
https://i.imgur.com/D8B2qzb.jpg
https://i.imgur.com/HvDdZmg.jpg
https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1664286680818282497
https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1664287687174397952
https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1664288442237304834
But what I really want to know is, is someone continuing the tradition of ringing the bell on Aug 20?
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- Blown Away
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2023 North Atlantic Hurricane Season:
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Hurricane Eye Experience: David 79, Irene 99, Frances 04, Jeanne 04, Wilma 05... EYE COMING MY WAY IN 2024…
Hurricane Brush Experience: Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Matthew 16, Irma 17, Ian 22, Nicole 22…
Hurricane Brush Experience: Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Matthew 16, Irma 17, Ian 22, Nicole 22…
- ScottNAtlanta
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2023 North Atlantic Hurricane Season:
Blown Away wrote:[url]https://i.postimg.cc/bwSZwmbg/CSU-June-1-Analogs.jpg [/url]
Map of CSU's June 1st Analogs...
Lots of memorable storms on that map
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2023 North Atlantic Hurricane Season
zzzh wrote:TSR May forecast is out.The reason why the TSR pre-season forecast update for North Atlantic hurricane activity in 2023 calls
for ACE-activity around 25% below the 1991-2020 30-year climate norm is because the two predictors
that are used by the TSR primary model (§2.1) are collectively anticipated to suppress hurricane activity
in 2023. These predictors are the July-September forecast trade wind at 925mb height over the Caribbean
Sea and tropical North Atlantic (region 7.5°N–17.5°N, 30°W–100°W), and the August-September
forecast SST for the tropical North Atlantic (region 10°N–20°N, 20°W–60°W). The current forecast for
the July-September trade wind is for 0.53±0.79 ms-1
stronger than normal (1991-2020 climatology). The current forecast for the August-September SST is for 0.25±0.33°C warmer than normal (1991-2020
climatology).
I'm not sure which model they are looking at, all the models I am looking at have below average trade wind and a much warmer MDR.
We use in-house statistical models. The trade wind prediction is based on the expected moderate El Nino developing through summer and persisting into autumn. El Nino conditions are assosciated with stronger than normal trade winds over the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean sea and higher than normal vertical wind shear. The MDR SST forecast is based on a principal component analysis of prior month Atlantic SSTs and regressing the first PC against MDR SSTs. There is a potential issue with using the NCEP/NCAR SSTs which have in the past been biased low.
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2023 North Atlantic Hurricane Season
https://has.arizona.edu/sites/default/files/2023-06/June%202023%20Hurricane%20Prediction_1.pdf
University of Arizona is predicting 25/12/6 with ace 260
University of Arizona is predicting 25/12/6 with ace 260
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- cycloneye
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2023 North Atlantic Hurricane Season
zzzh wrote:https://has.arizona.edu/sites/default/files/2023-06/June%202023%20Hurricane%20Prediction_1.pdf
University of Arizona is predicting 25/12/6 with ace 260
What in the world is that?
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- weeniepatrol
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2023 North Atlantic Hurricane Season
cycloneye wrote:zzzh wrote:https://has.arizona.edu/sites/default/files/2023-06/June%202023%20Hurricane%20Prediction_1.pdf
University of Arizona is predicting 25/12/6 with ace 260
What in the world is that?
Here is the apparent reasoning (emphasis mine); I remain unconvinced that this is not slightly dubious.
The April/May Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI) is slightly negative. Though El Niño has recently rapidly onset, the MEI values did not get high enough by the end of May to be included in our model. We only use an ENSO factor if the May tropical Atlantic SSTs are cooler than average or the MEI was greater than 1 by April/May (with neutral/cool SSTs in the Atlantic). Through our research we found that ENSO factors less significantly into overall activity when Atlantic SSTs are warm. With such warm tropical Atlantic SSTs we believe it will be difficult for ENSO to substantially limit the season, though 2023 will be an interesting test with a potential strong El Niño combatting the very warm tropical Atlantic.
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2023 North Atlantic Hurricane Season
cycloneye wrote:zzzh wrote:https://has.arizona.edu/sites/default/files/2023-06/June%202023%20Hurricane%20Prediction_1.pdf
University of Arizona is predicting 25/12/6 with ace 260
What in the world is that?
While I think that Univ. of Arizona forecast is really high, lets not lose sight of the fact that this is a center for higher education. It is in that light that I say KUDOS to those who got REALLY HIGH and had the cojones to stick their necks out and put THOSE numbers out there
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