2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[Iceresistance]

https://i.imgur.com/oJ2km5P.png

Thankfully it appears to be spurious. Watch that stream of vorticity off Venezuela - GFS has a tendency to spin up systems from that thing for some reason. It's good entertainment though
https://i.ibb.co/0cBMDzq/gfs-z850-vort-watl-fh156-270.gif

Might be from a low-latitude wave. I think the GFS did this a lot last Oct/Nov, when the ITCZ was so far south that every wave ran over northern SA when entering the Caribbean. Regardless of whether the source of that vorticity is legitimate or spurious, the incoming MJO is probably getting the GFS all excited.

Also a powerful CCKW that is expected to arrive next week as well.

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1524370206847651840




 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1524365431548620800

[Category5Kaiju]

If the 18z GFS comes to fruition, we would have the strongest May Atlantic TC ever recorded.

[Iceresistance]

If the 18z GFS comes to fruition, we would have the strongest May Atlantic TC ever recorded.

Take this with a extreme grain of salt, but it peaks at 972 MB at the end of the run! I'm confused!

[skyline385]

What the heck, that's a lot of ensemble members going off for May

[weeniepatrol]

What the heck, that's a lot of ensemble members going off for May

https://i.imgur.com/kI4t9Po.png

happy hour never disappoints

[Iceresistance]

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1524546999114252289

[Yellow Evan]

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1524550892870979584

[ChrisH-UK]

Looking at this circulation 10 days out, the vorticity show a broad circulation but notice there are some dark dot's around it. Looking at the ensembles it looks like it's seeing 2 possible systems one north near Jamaica which looks to be the best organised and one south off the coast of Central America which is disorganised. The ECMWF is showing the storm now but in the Pacific. Another problem looks to be a wall of shear that it will have to punch through. Even though it is looking tempting each day, with it forming in the far south west of the Caribbean the usual movement would for it to move westward over model runs to be a East Pacific storm much like the ECMWF. But the GFS is still running with it, I still think it's GFS playing tease with us, time will tell.

[toad strangler]

The last 18z and 00z GFS thinks it's mid October #fubar

[Category5Kaiju]

Oh look, GFS is at it again

Although I will say, if something like that were to actually happen, a storm named “Alex” would be the most capable of doing that kind of feat

[skyline385]

Oh look, GFS is at it again

Although I will say, if something like that were to actually happen, a storm named “Alex” would be the most capable of doing that kind of feat

This run is the worst one so far, 966mb in May?

[SFLcane]

Always trust GFS forecasts that form a TC after 200+ hours

[MGC]

Oh look, GFS is at it again

Although I will say, if something like that were to actually happen, a storm named “Alex” would be the most capable of doing that kind of feat

This run is the worst one so far, 966mb in May?

Can't wait for August! Little chance this happens......MGC

[Blown Away]

12Z GFS spinning up a May likely Major hurricane in the GOM. This is 8+ days out, so we know the long range GFS routine!

[Kingarabian]

GFS after it's shenanigans in the WPAC seems to have moved on to the Atlantic.

[skyline385]

GFS after it's shenanigans in the WPAC seems to have moved on to the Atlantic.

There were some shenanigans in the Indian Ocean too

[SFLcane]

Like this makes any sense plowing a tc through 50kt shear...Complete nonsence!

[zzh]

Like this makes any sense plowing a tc through 50kt shear...Complete nonsence!

https://i.postimg.cc/0jHWCNG7/gfs-jpeg.gif

The shear is produced by that TC itself.

[Category5Kaiju]

Like this makes any sense plowing a tc through 50kt shear...Complete nonsence!

https://i.postimg.cc/0jHWCNG7/gfs-jpeg.gif

The shear is produced by that TC itself.

I know, right?

[Monsoonjr99]

Classic May long-range GFS