Expert forecasts for 2022 North Atlantic Hurricane Season
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- cycloneye
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2022 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: NOAA May Outlook today at 11 AM EDT
The expectation grows minutes before the release.
https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1529087853237510146
https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1529087853237510146
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2022 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: NOAA May Outlook today at 11 AM EDT
Here comes NOAA 13-20 storms prediction lol
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2022 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: NOAA May Outlook shortly
Just as a reference here's the NOAA May Outlook for every year since 2010. The numbers in brackets behind it are the actual season numbers.
Year / Named storms / Hurricanes / Major hurricanes
2021 / 13-20 (21) / 6-10 (7) / 3-5 (4)
2020 / 13-19 (30) / 6-10 (14) / 3-6 (7)
2019 / 9-15 (18) / 4-8 (6) / 2-4 (3)
2018 / 10-16 (15) / 5-9 (8) / 1-4 (2)
2017 / 11-17 (17) / 5-9 (10) / 2-4 (6)
2016 / 10-16 (15) / 4-8 (7) / 1-4 (4)
2015 / 6-11 (11) / 3-6 (4) / 0-2 (2)
2014 / 8-13 (8) / 3-6 (6) / 1-2 (2)
2013 / 13-20 (14) / 7-11 (2) / 3-6 (0)
2012 / 9-15 (19) / 4-8 (10) / 1-3 (2)
2011 / 12-18 (19) / 6-10 (7) / 3-6 (4)
2010 / 14-23 (19) / 8-14 (12) / 3-7 (5)
Year / Named storms / Hurricanes / Major hurricanes
2021 / 13-20 (21) / 6-10 (7) / 3-5 (4)
2020 / 13-19 (30) / 6-10 (14) / 3-6 (7)
2019 / 9-15 (18) / 4-8 (6) / 2-4 (3)
2018 / 10-16 (15) / 5-9 (8) / 1-4 (2)
2017 / 11-17 (17) / 5-9 (10) / 2-4 (6)
2016 / 10-16 (15) / 4-8 (7) / 1-4 (4)
2015 / 6-11 (11) / 3-6 (4) / 0-2 (2)
2014 / 8-13 (8) / 3-6 (6) / 1-2 (2)
2013 / 13-20 (14) / 7-11 (2) / 3-6 (0)
2012 / 9-15 (19) / 4-8 (10) / 1-3 (2)
2011 / 12-18 (19) / 6-10 (7) / 3-6 (4)
2010 / 14-23 (19) / 8-14 (12) / 3-7 (5)
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- cycloneye
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2022 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: NOAA May Outlook
They are in Brooklyn, NYC making the announcement.
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- cycloneye
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2022 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: NOAA May Outlook
Above normal season 65%. 14-21 named storms - 6-10 hurricanes - 3-6 majors. I am getting this from FB live.
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- toad strangler
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2022 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: NOAA May Outlook
Wow their most NS output since 2010
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- Category5Kaiju
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2022 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: NOAA May Outlook
cycloneye wrote:Above normal season 65%. 14-21 named storms - 6-10 hurricanes - 3-6 majors. I am getting this from FB live.
So the median is roughly 17.5 NS, 8 H, and 4.5 majors (rounded, would be 18/8/5).
Honestly, not very surprised by the forecast, it's what I expected. Buckle up, we have ways to go
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Unless explicitly stated, all information covered in my posts is based on my opinions and observations. Please refer to a professional meteorologist or an accredited weather research agency otherwise, especially if serious decisions must be made in the event of a potentially life-threatening tropical storm or hurricane.
- cycloneye
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2022 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: NOAA May Outlook: 14-21 named storms
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- skyline385
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2022 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: NOAA May Outlook: 14-21 named storms / Graphic posted
Someone refresh my memory but didn't NOAA give out percentages in the past for hyperactive season as well? Is the ceiling this year only above normal according to their forecast?
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- Category5Kaiju
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2022 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: NOAA May Outlook: 14-21 named storms / Graphic posted
skyline385 wrote:Someone refresh my memory but didn't NOAA give out percentages in the past for hyperactive season as well? Is the ceiling this year only above normal according to their forecast?
No, NOAA typically just assigns the 3 probabilities with above, near, or below normal. Hyperactivity/above normal distinction is typically what hardcore wx enthusiasts like us like to pay attention to, although there are some agencies (UKMET and CSU as examples) that do forecast hyperactivity chances
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- NotSparta
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2022 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: NOAA May Outlook: 14-21 named storms / Graphic posted
A touch higher than 2020's or last year's May forecast. A little more restrained than a few of the other agencies too. From their discussion that's probably thanks to the SSTAs in the tropics.
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This post was probably an opinion of mine, and in no way is official. Please refer to http://www.hurricanes.gov for official tropical analysis and advisories.
My website, with lots of tropical wx graphics, including satellite and recon: http://cyclonicwx.com
My website, with lots of tropical wx graphics, including satellite and recon: http://cyclonicwx.com
- cycloneye
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2022 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: NOAA May Outlook: 14-21 named storms / Graphic posted
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- cycloneye
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2022 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: NOAA May Outlook: 14-21 named storms
Another graphic that includes all the basins. EPAC below normal 10-17 named storms and CPAC between 2-4 named storms.
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- toad strangler
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2022 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: NOAA May Outlook: 14-21 named storms / Graphic posted
NotSparta wrote:A touch higher than 2020's or last year's May forecast. A little more restrained than a few of the other agencies too. From their discussion that's probably thanks to the SSTAs in the tropics.
https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/733552978572869632/978683470102548500/unknown.png
I don't see it that way. This is their highest pre season NS output since 2010. That's significant. They are usually more conservative than the private sector, that's kind of a given in my eyes.
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- skyline385
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2022 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: NOAA May Outlook: 14-21 named storms
toad strangler wrote:NotSparta wrote:A touch higher than 2020's or last year's May forecast. A little more restrained than a few of the other agencies too. From their discussion that's probably thanks to the SSTAs in the tropics.
https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/733552978572869632/978683470102548500/unknown.png
I don't see it that way. This is their highest pre season NS output since 2010. That's significant. They are usually more conservative than the private sector, that's kind of a given in my eyes.
They have been steadily increasing their NS every year because of recent climo. 2020 for example had 19 forecast and 2021 had 20 forecast even though 2020 was by far an anomalous season. With the warm subtropical pool, they probably are expecting a ton of shorties and hence the high NS count.
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2022 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: NOAA May Outlook shortly
kevin wrote:Just as a reference here's the NOAA May Outlook for every year since 2010. The numbers in brackets behind it are the actual season numbers.
Year / Named storms / Hurricanes / Major hurricanes
2021 / 13-20 (21) / 6-10 (7) / 3-5 (4)
2020 / 13-19 (30) / 6-10 (14) / 3-6 (7)
2019 / 9-15 (18) / 4-8 (6) / 2-4 (3)
2018 / 10-16 (15) / 5-9 (8) / 1-4 (2)
2017 / 11-17 (17) / 5-9 (10) / 2-4 (6)
2016 / 10-16 (15) / 4-8 (7) / 1-4 (4)
2015 / 6-11 (11) / 3-6 (4) / 0-2 (2)
2014 / 8-13 (8) / 3-6 (6) / 1-2 (2)
2013 / 13-20 (14) / 7-11 (2) / 3-6 (0)
2012 / 9-15 (19) / 4-8 (10) / 1-3 (2)
2011 / 12-18 (19) / 6-10 (7) / 3-6 (4)
2010 / 14-23 (19) / 8-14 (12) / 3-7 (5)
So to put this year's forecast of 14-21 NS, 6-10 H, 3-6 MH in perspective, the H and MH counts are identical to 2011 and 2020, similar to 2021, and a bit below 2010 and 2013 (lol).
I'm not sure how much weight to place into the NS counts, as I don't know how much the better detection technology we have in recent years have been taken into consideration, if at all. Regardless, the H/MH counts are enough to show the forecasted favorable base state despite SSTs below expectation from some.
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2022 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: NOAA May Outlook: 14-21 named storms
Time to pony up with your own predictions if you haven't already. The 2022 poll closes when the season starts.
2022 Poll: https://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopi ... 1&t=122570
Thanks!
2022 Poll: https://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopi ... 1&t=122570
Thanks!
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- hurricanetrack
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2022 North Atlantic Hurricane Season
Thought you all might get a lot out of these infographics from one of our supporters; a very talented young man headed off to college in the fall.
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- SFLcane
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2022 North Atlantic Hurricane Season
Highly encourage everyone to read weathertigers seasonal outlook. A block buster season coming!
https://twitter.com/wx_tiger/status/1529804520464711680
https://twitter.com/wx_tiger/status/1529804520464711680
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- cycloneye
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2022 North Atlantic Hurricane Season
SFLcane wrote:Highly encourage everyone to read weathertigers seasonal outlook. A block buster season coming!
https://twitter.com/wx_tiger/status/1529804520464711680?s=21&t=SHDaWJsvfAwPAlayjes6oA
Added with the link to whole outlook. Very interesting and worrisome at the same time.
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