2016 WPAC Season

[euro6208]

Looks like the monsoon trough has spawn a weak circulation just off Visayas. Not really knowledgeable about classifying systems though, has anyone seen the same thing or was it just me? Some model runs are showing a weak LPA getting sucked by Nepartak..

Wouldn't be surprised if this was briefly a TC. It looked better than most of the weak short lived TS's in the atlantic. Forget about dvorak, recon matters no matter how disorganzied it is as we've see in the ATL and this was more organized than most...

I'd bet we missed like hundreds of TC's since recon ended in 1987 due to dvorak being low no matter how weak.

[1900hurricane]

It's still there. Hope to see that ASCAT hit it after I get out of mass here this morning.

[1900hurricane]

Well, that particular spin up has long since died down, but there is definitely at least a broad, weak circulation down there, as shown by the ASCAT and RSCAT passes that have hit it within the past 12 hours.

[dexterlabio]

Well, that particular spin up has long since died down, but there is definitely at least a broad, weak circulation down there, as shown by the ASCAT and RSCAT passes that have hit it within the past 12 hours.

It was fun spotting that spin. Although I'm curious how that little spin could affect Nepartak in the coming days.

Also, is that persistent area of convection in SCS due to wind convergence? Or is there something else in there?

[1900hurricane]

Yeah, looks like normal monsoon convergence to me in the South China Sea.

[1900hurricane]

Looks like the WPac might return to being pretty dead following the intense Nepartak. The only thing I can see maybe possibly developing in the next ten days is something off a trough split in the subtropics east of Japan starting around day 7, and I'm feeling skeptical about that actually transpiring.

[euro6208]

Agreed. EURO and GFS nada.

The models didn't really show Nepartak until it was classified. It just appeared out of nowhere.

Now we wait.

Next name on the list is notorious for becoming quite strong, LUPIT which means Vicious/Cruel in the Philippines. Used 2 times...2003 and 2009's became Category 5's but thankfully it was out to sea. It did horrible damage to the FSM in 2003.

[Kingarabian]

Long range GFS has Celia possibly trekking into the WPAC.

[euro6208]

Long range GFS has Celia possibly trekking into the WPAC.

00Z had a strengthening typhoon west of the dateline. 06Z has Hurricane Celia east of 180, barely making it to the WPAC.

[1900hurricane]

The GFS solution taking Celia across or north of Hawaii and then into the WPac is not one I favor. Even with more favorable conditions and warmer waters last year, that type of solution never verified.

Next week, it looks like the WPac will be dominated by a very potent Mei-yu/Bai-u front setup, making the basin rather unfavorable for tropical cyclone formation. Surface pressures in the tropics will actually be higher than they are in the subtropics and further north.

[euro6208]

Next week, it looks like the WPac will be dominated by a very potent Mei-yu/Bai-u front setup, making the basin rather unfavorable for tropical cyclone formation. Surface pressures in the tropics will actually be higher than they are in the subtropics and further north.

EURO and GFS nada on their latest run...

I can see it now. Quiet. Warming up the waters again and upper level winds become favorable, then another Category 5 develops. Philippines next? We'll see...Same old story.

[euro6208]

TSR slightly increases its extended range outlook but still predicts the 2016 Northwest Pacific typhoon season will be quiet with activity well below the 1965-2015 climate norm.

22 Tropical Storms
13 Typhoons
7 Major Typhoons
ACE 239

http://tropicalstormrisk.com/

[euro6208]

Interesting circulation west of Guam with low to moderate shear over it. Models don't do much with it plus it should be passing over Nepartak's cold wake. Thank God...

[euro6208]

Super Typhoon Nepartak

What a way to start this record slowness. Coming off a Super nino, the WPAC was very quiet. In fact, it's so slow it didn't seem normal but then Nepartak developed within a broad monsoon trough. It consolidated further and became a TS on July 3 local time. It's the 2nd latest 1st named formation storm on record within a year since 1950. The record is 1998 when Nichole became a TS on July 8th.

Nepartak's upgrade also puts 2016 as the latest year on record since 1950 for tropical cyclones reaching 35 knots or greater at 199 days counting last year.



Nepartak peaking at 150 knots makes him the second strongest 1st name storm on record after Super Typhoon Damrey back in 2000 when it peaked at 155 knots. Interestingly, Damrey was also the first name to be used in the current naming system that began in 2000 so what a way to start it!




Nepartak's development also fits in climatology for named storm formation location for all NW Pacific TCs from 1985-2014 during July.



Years coming out from a Super nino sees a notable decline in long tracking TC's alright however following year they develop very near land and gathers steam. Philippines to Japan is at highest risk. I also noticed that as we head deeper in the season in those years. these storms become monsters especially Cat 5's hitting somewhere.

[1900hurricane]

The time frame I'm looking at is a week plus out, but I wouldn't be terribly surprised to see something develop in the subtropics at the end of the Mei-yu/Bai-u front when it begins to lose focus. It's going to take some time before I have any reasonable forecast confidence in such a scenario though, considering the forecast range.

[euro6208]

Models keep the basin quiet until the end of month...

[euro6208]

What a break for a change! TBH...I love how quiet this world's most active basin is right now. Every year seems to be active and death and destruction along the way. I can now focus on my job, family, and partner and i bet millions are the same with me .

Shear is quite favorable, SST's are extremely warm actually THE WARMEST IN THE WORLD, moisture is extremely abundant but once the MJO kicks in possibly by start of August and possibly a Kelvin wave moving through right now? no matter how slow it is, something will develop. Maybe similiar to Nepartak a Category 5 hitting somewhere with all that fuel to feed it. Slow season= More quality storms...

















SST's running above average of climatology...

[euro6208]

Last year at this time, we already had 11 Tropical storms, 8 Typhoons, 6 Major Typhoons, and 3 Category 5 monsters with many landfalls and a Cat 5 landfall...We were also tracking a soon to be category 2 Typhoon at this time....It doesn't have to be active all the time...Remember, Atlantic's motto, IT ONLY TAKES ONE!

[euro6208]

One sneaky system tagged as Invest 91W trying to develop near Taiwan.

INVEST 91W

[1900hurricane]

The WPac future looks a little muddled. With the Mei-yu/Baiu Front set-up set to pull out in the next few days, it looks like it will at the least leave some vorticity behind. Perhaps a Reverse-Oriented Monsoon Trough or maybe even a Subtropical Gyre will make an appearance. Guidance is having some difficulty breaking down the current blocky pattern across the NPac mid-latitudes, and that will in turn affect what drops down into the subtropical and tropical WPac.

Some guidance is also trying to take Celia all the way into the WPac somewhere around 30*N. It certainly is possible, as the system still has a vigorous circulation. However, the system still has a long trek ahead of it, one that is likely to have quite a bit of dry air and shear.