2015 Global model runs discussion

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WPBWeather
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Global model runs discussion

#121 Postby WPBWeather » Sat Jun 06, 2015 10:32 am

Ok, I guess I forgot about citing him. :cry:
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#122 Postby Alyono » Sat Jun 06, 2015 5:50 pm

models continue to trend away from development. Just a moisture surge bringing another round of heavy rainfall for Texas.

Development chances may be less than 1 in 10 now.

wouldn't surprise me if we see nothing until the middle of August. Maybe a 1982 type season without the early season hurricane

In my opinion, this is why we shouldn't focus ourselves on 10 day development chances. Little skill that far out. I'd focus on 7 days and in.
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Re: Global model runs discussion

#123 Postby SFLcane » Sat Jun 06, 2015 7:09 pm

Let's gets something to develop first now a days we can't even get decent hurricane in this basin. Pathetic
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Re: Global model runs discussion

#124 Postby TheStormExpert » Sat Jun 06, 2015 7:26 pm

SFLcane wrote:Let's gets something to develop first now a days we can't even get decent hurricane in this basin. Pathetic

This must be the new theme. Dead Atlantic, hyperactive E. Pacific. :roll:

Hard to believe it's nearly been 10 straight years now since a hurricane hit Florida, and a major hurricane hit the U.S.
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Re:

#125 Postby CYCLONE MIKE » Sat Jun 06, 2015 7:58 pm

Alyono wrote:models continue to trend away from development. Just a moisture surge bringing another round of heavy rainfall for Texas.

Development chances may be less than 1 in 10 now.

wouldn't surprise me if we see nothing until the middle of August. Maybe a 1982 type season without the early season hurricane

In my opinion, this is why we shouldn't focus ourselves on 10 day development chances. Little skill that far out. I'd focus on 7 days and in.



Just like the phantom storm the gfs kept showing developing around the Bahamas and moving out to sea. How did that work out? :roll: The way the gfs and Canadian are throwing out storms we will be in the Greek names before September :roll:
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Re: Re:

#126 Postby TheStormExpert » Sat Jun 06, 2015 8:17 pm

CYCLONE MIKE wrote:
Alyono wrote:models continue to trend away from development. Just a moisture surge bringing another round of heavy rainfall for Texas.

Development chances may be less than 1 in 10 now.

wouldn't surprise me if we see nothing until the middle of August. Maybe a 1982 type season without the early season hurricane

In my opinion, this is why we shouldn't focus ourselves on 10 day development chances. Little skill that far out. I'd focus on 7 days and in.



Just like the phantom storm the gfs kept showing developing around the Bahamas and moving out to sea. How did that work out? :roll: The way the gfs and Canadian are throwing out storms we will be in the Greek names before September :roll:

The Euro showed the this and the Bahamas storm too. So the GFS and Canadian were not alone.
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Re:

#127 Postby jlauderdal » Sat Jun 06, 2015 8:31 pm

Alyono wrote:models continue to trend away from development. Just a moisture surge bringing another round of heavy rainfall for Texas.

Development chances may be less than 1 in 10 now.

wouldn't surprise me if we see nothing until the middle of August. Maybe a 1982 type season without the early season hurricane

In my opinion, this is why we shouldn't focus ourselves on 10 day development chances. Little skill that far out. I'd focus on 7 days and in.



7 days on the euro max, 5 days max on gfs and that is being generous.....there is no reason to think this is going to be anything but a very quiet year...however, nothing is quiet if you get hit so beware..we cant even get the rainy season to get going on the east coast of florida let alone anything tropical...i haven't heard thunder in weeks and that is no joke...we had activity in early may and since then a whole lot of nothing
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Re: Re:

#128 Postby CYCLONE MIKE » Sat Jun 06, 2015 8:57 pm

TheStormExpert wrote:
CYCLONE MIKE wrote:
Alyono wrote:models continue to trend away from development. Just a moisture surge bringing another round of heavy rainfall for Texas.

Development chances may be less than 1 in 10 now.

wouldn't surprise me if we see nothing until the middle of August. Maybe a 1982 type season without the early season hurricane

In my opinion, this is why we shouldn't focus ourselves on 10 day development chances. Little skill that far out. I'd focus on 7 days and in.



Just like the phantom storm the gfs kept showing developing around the Bahamas and moving out to sea. How did that work out? :roll: The way the gfs and Canadian are throwing out storms we will be in the Greek names before September :roll:

The Euro showed the this and the Bahamas storm too. So the GFS and Canadian were not alone.


Doesn't really matter much. Any long range and even some shorter term models are purely for entertainment purposes only.
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#129 Postby gatorcane » Sat Jun 06, 2015 9:19 pm

The super long-range CFS (North America view) finally is showing some life for the first time this hurricane season. How is this for entertainment at 2000+ hours out! (Aug 29th)?!? :lol:

Image

By the way does anybody know where the link for the CFS North Atlantic basin went to?
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Re: Global model runs discussion

#130 Postby CYCLONE MIKE » Sat Jun 06, 2015 9:50 pm

Can't be any less reliable than the gfs or Canadian 7-10 days out :lol:
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Re:

#131 Postby jlauderdal » Sun Jun 07, 2015 9:47 am

the farmers almanac has support for that august system so SE USA watch out
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Re: Global model runs discussion

#132 Postby tailgater » Sun Jun 07, 2015 12:29 pm

GFDL =Good For Daily Laughs or GOM First Depression Likely.

Image
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Re: Global model runs discussion

#133 Postby Hammy » Sun Jun 07, 2015 1:58 pm

It's looking like the first half of June can probably be written off by this point, none of the models are reliable past a day or two anymore after having had the Euro with a strong tropical storm and no longer showing anything; it seems they all went the GFS route and underestimated the strength of the high pressure.
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Re: Re:

#134 Postby wxman57 » Sun Jun 07, 2015 3:32 pm

Hammy wrote:
I recall hearing (probably on this forum) that the Euro was upgraded, so let's see if it sticks to it's medium range uncertainty that was prevalent last year. I agree with a few others that whatever develops in the Pacific may simply pull something up out of the Caribbean, and the models could be in the process of trying to resolve this scenario from having had an actual crossover system initially, almost like a back to the drawing board for the runs to figure out how that end result (possible development) would occur.


I heard that the EC upgrade was delayed.
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Re: Global model runs discussion

#135 Postby CYCLONE MIKE » Sun Jun 07, 2015 8:11 pm

none of the models are reliable past a day or two anymore


Couldn't agree with you more. These models seem to be getting worse and worse every yeasr., especially for the tropics.
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#136 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Jun 07, 2015 8:39 pm

Don't follow the ATL as closely, but I don't the models do as bad in the EPAC. Probs since the EPAC has more systems.
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Re: Global model runs discussion

#137 Postby BigB0882 » Sun Jun 07, 2015 11:12 pm

CYCLONE MIKE wrote:
none of the models are reliable past a day or two anymore


Couldn't agree with you more. These models seem to be getting worse and worse every yeasr., especially for the tropics.


I wonder if the models are getting worse OR if the incredibly active seasons gave us a false impression that the models were getting better. When we have a season with a ton of storms forming, that means less models forming phantom storms. When you have a season with very few storms but the models still forecast the same amount as before, the phantoms storms are so numerous that we can't help but notice and think the models are performing worse than before. I wonder if there is any way to consider this when looking at model performance?
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Re: Global model runs discussion

#138 Postby lrak » Mon Jun 08, 2015 8:17 am

The gfdl hwrf and navgem show some low pressure in the BOC at the end of this week?
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Global model runs discussion

#139 Postby fendie » Mon Jun 08, 2015 10:04 am

lrak wrote:The gfdl hwrf and navgem show some low pressure in the BOC at the end of this week?


Image
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Re:

#140 Postby WPBWeather » Mon Jun 08, 2015 11:49 am

[quote="gatorcane"]The super long-range CFS (North America view) finally is showing some life for the first time this hurricane season. How is this for entertainment at 2000+ hours out! (Aug 29th)?!? :lol:

Image

In the long run, we're all dead anyway. JM Keynes (not a Pro Met)
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