Models show low pressure forming in the NE Gulf of Mexico

[NOLA2010]

Yeah Frank..yall are getting what we did last week now that there is a SE wind..bad news all around...

18z NAM on board now with a tight system moving west

Ivanhater, whats that system right by Central America?

[Ivanhater]

Looks like something might cook up in that region as well...Euro and nogaps want to do something in that area as well

[HURAKAN]

very unstable in the gulf coast

[Weatherfreak000]

Looks like something might cook up in that region as well...Euro and nogaps want to do something in that area as well

NOGAPS interested as well





I love the brainstorming here by you guys keep it up, we have just about seen through all possible players for what may be a busy next 11 days

[HURAKAN]

48 hours

[jaxfladude]

I WANT/ NEED A LULL!
Not a good sign of late for this season, could it be possible the forecast # of storms may have to be UPPED and not lowered?

[CourierPR]

JB is concerned about this area also.

[Ivanhater]

JB is concerned about this area also.

What is he saying?

[KWT]

I wouldn't be all that shocked if something tried to develop but I don't think the front is quite far enough south to develop.

If we get turning though we could get a short lived invest from this.

[Ivanhater]

18z gfs

90 hours



114 hours

[Frank P]

Ivan, that low is going to sit there for 5 days per this model... some body might get deluged if that comes to fruition...

[CourierPR]

Watching Central Gulf Coast for Tropical Development
Click on this at Accuweather.com

[KWT]

I just can't see it sitting there that long, mind you it would possibly ruin the shelf waters for anything that does try to recurve slighly towards the C/E Gulf in 10-12 days time...so may not be a bad thing is a large sloppy TD/TS did try to form

[Frank P]

I just can't see it sitting there that long, mind you it would possibly ruin the shelf waters for anything that does try to recurve slighly towards the C/E Gulf in 10-12 days time...so may not be a bad thing is a large sloppy TD/TS did try to form

KWT, not if you are on the dirty side of the system because it might push up a plethora of oil just sitting out in the GOM.. now, if you are on the western side of the center it would push the oil away from shore, which would be good..

[Ikester]

Our station futurecast is showing something spinning up in the gulf in a few days....hmmmm

[KWT]

KWT, not if you are on the dirty side of the system because it might push up a plethora of oil just sitting out in the GOM.. now, if you are on the western side of the center it would push the oil away from shore, which would be good..

I'd be very surprised if a TD would really make that much difference really to be honest, though I don't know enough really to make that call...

FWIW the oil spill would almost certainly be on the west side of any system.

[lonelymike]

Do any of the local NWS offices or any pro mets beside JB support this scenario the models are spinning up?

[HeeBGBz]

KWT, not if you are on the dirty side of the system because it might push up a plethora of oil just sitting out in the GOM.. now, if you are on the western side of the center it would push the oil away from shore, which would be good..

I'd be very surprised if a TD would really make that much difference really to be honest, though I don't know enough really to make that call...

FWIW the oil spill would almost certainly be on the west side of any system.[/quote

The stormy weather that has moved on to Florida has brought the oil to the beach here in Biloxi. Any disturbance and continued stirring of gulf's toxic stew will only get worse. There's not a thing anyone can do.

http://www.flickr.com/photos/8414202@N03/4753599236/

[HURAKAN]

Vorticity remains strong

[Frank P]

KWT, not if you are on the dirty side of the system because it might push up a plethora of oil just sitting out in the GOM.. now, if you are on the western side of the center it would push the oil away from shore, which would be good..

I'd be very surprised if a TD would really make that much difference really to be honest, though I don't know enough really to make that call...

FWIW the oil spill would almost certainly be on the west side of any system.

I disagree...
Lets say you get a TD develop in the Gulf, and it just sits and stirs up for several days.. and the winds are blowing 30 plus mph, it would be blowing the wind and oil on the east side of the storm towards the coast.. the west side the winds would be blowing out back into the GOM.. the oil is all over the gulf... anything due south of Mobile for example with sustained winds of 25 to 30 mph would be bad news for the fl panhandle.. for Biloxi, who would be on the west side, it would be good news as the wind would blow the oil out..