Wave in Caribbean

[Hurricane Andrew]

I was just looking at a model that boms it out over the S GOM
http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appc ... PARAMETERS

[AdamFirst]

Did anyone notice the blob coming off the Colombian/Panamanian coast?

Is that just an angry group of afternoon thunderstorms or is that something to look at? Check the satellite loops. It looks like it has structure to me.

[gatorcane]

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well I could possibly see why some folks see development in a few days once it reaches the Western Caribbean as shear should be lighter than what it will experience over the next 48 hours. That said, as WxMan notes, there is big-time ridging that is developing over the Central GOM and Florida so should something get going it is staying far south away from the GOM.

That said, not really like development chances anyway, so it may not matter. Main reason is a complete lack of organization at this time. The wave is only flaring up due to strong shear intrusion at the moment. Wouldn't surprise me that once it passes the shear axis in the Eastern Caribbean, it may die off to the point the wave is hardly detectable on SAT loops with ephemeral flares up as it makes its way into Central America.

As for the blob in the extreme SW Caribbean, don't expect development out of this. That is the usual Panamanian low at work with some convection blowing up, very typical for this time of year. Even if it were to somehow get organized, its headed to the EPAC.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT WED JUN 9 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS...AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING
WESTWARD ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA IS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE. SURFACE PRESSURES REMAIN
HIGH AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT AT THIS TIME. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF
THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/KIMBERLAIN

[wxman57]

Did anyone notice the blob coming off the Colombian/Panamanian coast?

Is that just an angry group of afternoon thunderstorms or is that something to look at? Check the satellite loops. It looks like it has structure to me.

http://img121.imageshack.us/img121/9449 ... thispu.jpg

That's just another passing tropical wave of lower amplitude than the one approaching the Eastern Caribbean.

[gatorcane]

Did anyone notice the blob coming off the Colombian/Panamanian coast?

Is that just an angry group of afternoon thunderstorms or is that something to look at? Check the satellite loops. It looks like it has structure to me.

http://img121.imageshack.us/img121/9449 ... thispu.jpg

That's just another passing tropical wave of lower amplitude than the one approaching the Eastern Caribbean.

Indeed, I should have read the TWD. So it's a wave, not the Panamanian low. Anyway, there is no chance of development in the Atlantic side from this:

CARIBBEAN SEA...
NUMEROUS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACROSS
CUBA...HISPANIOLA...JAMAICA...AND PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO.
THIS ACTIVITY IS MOST LIKELY SUPPORTED BY THE COMBINATION OF
DAYTIME HEATING AND SEABREEZE CONVERGENCE. A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDS ALONG 82W FROM 10N-18N ENHANCING ISOLATED
SHOWERS/POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
AXIS N OF 13N. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS S OF 13N. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO ACROSS MUCH OF NICARAGUA AND
HONDURAS. A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 80W IS ENHANCING NUMEROUS
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS N OF PANAMA FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN 76W-80W.
MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS EXPERIENCING GENERALLY
FAIR WEATHER UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MODERATELY DRY AIR ALOFT
AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN EXTENDING
ACROSS HISPANIOLA. THIS MAY BE FURTHER ENHANCING CONVECTION IS
THE SW CARIBBEAN. EXPECT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO PERSIST OVER
THE SW CARIBBEAN...AND THE NRN CARIBBEAN ISLANDS.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 2318.shtml?

[Frank2]

...is gone, per the latest TWO...

Upper-level winds are still very strong across the Caribbean...

P.S. I'm sure TWC and others will soon start a "side by side" comparison of 2005 to this season, to see how the seasonal forecast is turning out (or not turning out)...

Frank

P.S. Post 2,500 and counting (no wonder my fingers are tired)...

[Ivanhater]

12z Nogaps wants to wrap this up into a tropical storm before landfall. Conditions are ripe.

[KWT]

P.S. I'm sure TWC and others will soon start a "side by side" comparison of 2005 to this season, to see how the seasonal forecast is turning out (or not turning out)...

To be fair though no one has gone close to the 28 NS of 2005, even NOAA's very top end estimate is still 5 short, so its not fair to compare this season to that. Perhaps with the numbers expected maybe a better comprasion would be 03/08/69 type seasons.

[Ivanhater]

It looks like on the 00Z GFS shows this wave move into the BOC, where it sits for days and develops into a tropical storm and moves north

[KWT]

That can't be this same wave Ivanhater, esp given that chart is over 15 days away!

Probablt the GFS developing another area down the line from generally disturbed weather in that region, maybe a wave helps to spark things up, but surely the wave won't sit there for about 11-12 days without any motion at all.

[Ivanhater]

I dont know KWT...go frame by frame on the GFS and follow the wave in the western Caribbean and it crosses the Yucatan and sits for days in the BOC.

[ronjon]

Big blow up of convection just east of Nic this afternoon.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-avn.html

[wxman57]

This wave is already moving into Central America this evening. Axis is along 83W. You can follow it easily on the MIMIC-TPW imagery 3-day loop:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... /main.html

[Aquawind]

Alrighty.. Nice warm up wave with a TWO. Next...well maybeee BOC in time..doubtful..but...nahh.. NEXT.