EPAC / Caribbean development later this week?

[MGC]

The Yucatan low has a very low chance of development. Too much dry air and shear.....MGC

[SouthFloridawx]

[CourierPR]

The Yucatan low has a very low chance of development. Too much dry air and shear.....MGC

As I look at the water vapor image, I see a lot of moisture down there.

[cycloneye]

The Canadian model still likes the Caribbean scenario of some development.

12z CMC at 144 hours

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

[HURAKAN]

[SouthFloridawx]

Looking at the 850mb vorticity, looks like it's pulling in some energy from the E. Pac. Our Yucatan Low just moves on by into Mexico, pretty quickly.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.cgi?time=2010052112&field=850mb+Vorticity&hour=Animation

[HURAKAN]

GFS

[southerngale]

(First time poster, long time reader...)

Which if any of the models account for the high-shear environment? Sounds like that is going to be the limiting factor ...

Welcome to Storm2k.

[Ivanhater]

hmm..what is the GFS doing? seems like a more seasonal track

[alienstorm]

More like it as atlantic disturance moves out - high pressure builds in bringing it up the shoot...

[cycloneye]

[HURAKAN]

Jeff Masters:

Potential heavy rainfall threat to Haiti next week

Long-range forecasts from the NOGAPS model, and to a lesser extent, the ECMWF and GFS models, continue to predict an increase in moisture and decrease in wind shear over the Western Caribbean 4 - 6 days from now, leading to development of a tropical disturbance with heavy rains in the Western Caribbean early next week. A strong subtropical jet stream over the southern Gulf of Mexico will steer the disturbance to the north and east, and the potential exists for heavy rains of 2 - 4 inches to affect eastern Cuba, Jamaica, Haiti, and the Dominican Republic in the Wednesday - Thursday time frame next week. The models are less enthusiastic about the prospects for tropical development than they were in yesterday's runs, and it currently appears that high levels of wind shear will make formation of a tropical depression improbable.

[punkyg]

It seems like every one has stopped talking about the possible development in the sw carribean since the bahama disturbence was declared an invest.

could you guys atleast tell me if the computer models drop the phantom storm?

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[cycloneye]

The 12z CMC has a disturbance in the Western Caribbean at 144 hours.

[Ivanhater]

GFS model



Nogaps

[CourierPR]

is there consensus here that we will have something to watch next week?

[cycloneye]

is there consensus here that we will have something to watch next week?

Definitly yes.

[somethingfunny]

Uh....we're STILL talking about 144-196 hours out? hmmm.

I'm not biting.

[KWT]

Yep thats a sure sign that this may not be a real signal, that being said I wouldn't be surprised to see something develop in that area eventually, esp given the way the models have been trying to develop something down there for a while.