Tropics Offically Flat lined !! (dead)

[Sanibel]

GOM to Senegal completely flat dead negative.

[CrazyC83]

JB still thinking a much slower than normal season, but with a somewhat enhanced threat to the East Coast and possibly a Gulf storm of non-tropical origins.


The Gulf has had, it seems, more than its share of upper disturbances dropping in and fronts reaching the coast, but nothing has seemed interesting, yet.

As far as a Northeast system, unless things change, cooler than normal water temps offshore and we are now a month past peak insolation, and the rate of change of sun angle and day length is starting to increase.

Notice the much warmer than normal water off of Atlantic Canada. If we see a 2006 analog, that region could have to prepare themselves...

[BensonTCwatcher]

Just one of those years, anecdotal (just my memory) don't remember things this quiet approaching Aug 1st. I know all the stats etc. just the potential activity and factors in the Atl. basin look quiet. WxMan's prediction of Aug 8th looks to be a lock, might be underdone if the current wave emerging busts. (I think it will)

[vbhoutex]

Just one of those years, anecdotal (just my memory) don't remember things this quiet approaching Aug 1st. I know all the stats etc. just the potential activity and factors in the Atl. basin look quiet. WxMan's prediction of Aug 8th looks to be a lock, might be underdone if the current wave emerging busts. (I think it will)

Yeh, I am starting to think even wxman57 is gonna miss the mark on this one. Definitely a much quieter year overall than any in a long time. There has been VERY LITTLE to even watch and/or comment on/prognosticate about.

[HURAKAN]

I find interesting that in an El Niño year the Pacific is so pacific.

[tolakram]

I find interesting that in an El Niño year the Pacific is so pacific.

That makes me think we're in for a burst of activity. El Nino is weak and not really a common event, plus waters are near normal.

I think the delay is because much of the US has been experiencing record cold temperatures and the jet stream stayed south for so long. With low shear the next pulse should provide some development.

In my amateur opinion.

[DanKellFla]

The tropics are so dead that even this thread is dead.

[jinftl]

and spooky...don't forget that the tropics are spooky, too, because of this

[RL3AO]

The tropics are so dead that even this thread is dead.

No no no. The Atlantic is dead.

The East Pacific has two systems and in the West Pacific we might see the strongest TC of the entire year this week.

[Nimbus]

This year the ITCZ was running a little further south than usual. Is there any correlation between ITCZ position and tropical storm formation? The ITCZ latitude still looks like a July pattern to my eyes but apparently it has moved north into the early August mean .

[Category 5]

The tropics are so dead that even this thread is dead.

No no no. The Atlantic is dead.

The East Pacific has two systems and in the West Pacific we might see the strongest TC of the entire year this week.

The what? O_o

[OpieStorm]

The tropics are so dead that even this thread is dead.

No no no. The Atlantic is dead.

That's all that counts.

[jinftl]

Remember seasons when august would look like this....healthy-appearing low latitude wave and another about to emerge off of africa?



Oh wait....this is the current satellite...who knew


Does amtrak offer service in africa now or is that another type of train emerging?

[Sanibel]

The convection near us in the SE GOM is a sign of the switch going on.


Pretty soon.

[Ed Mahmoud]

I don't think any switch is getting thrown in the Atlantic anytime soon...

I think Hawai'i will be the action state in 2009.

[vbhoutex]

I don't think any switch is getting thrown in the Atlantic anytime soon...

I think Hawai'i will be the action state in 2009.

I want you to repeat this in 3 weeks with a straight face. And I do hope you are right about no switch being turned on.

[Ed Mahmoud]

I don't think any switch is getting thrown in the Atlantic anytime soon...

I think Hawai'i will be the action state in 2009.

I want you to repeat this in 3 weeks with a straight face. And I do hope you are right about no switch being turned on.

It might be different in 3 weeks.

I am cautiously optimistic that we in SE Texas will be spared any serious trouble this year. Just law of averages. Alicia in 1983, Ike in 2008. 25 years. Sure, there were Erins and Edouards and Jerry and, of course, Allison, in between, but as far as power failures and missing televised sports, well. Rita killed our power for about 12 hours, but Texas had a bye week and I missed no college football I really wanted to see. The 80 or 100 miles between here and Port Arthur really seems to make a difference. They got the full Rita, and also got most of Ike. Plus Humberto. For their sake, I hope they get an off year.

But if the tropics are still completely dead in the Atlantic at the end of August, that would be kind of unusual. But sort of cool. The analogy I use, although I no longer really follow baseball, is a 0-0 pitchers duel. Different kind of excitement from a home run derby kind of game, but exciting, none the less.

Non-scientific WAG, gut feeling, Florida and Hawai'i see most of the action. Maybe the Carolinas. Can't rule out an El Nino year Andrew or Betsy type storm that hits Florida with a second landfall in Mississippi or Louisiana. An Andrew or Betsy storm would also make an otherwise slow year quite memorable.

I have a feeling the UKMO range of 3-9, with a midpoint of 6, is about right, but if we already knew the ending of the game, that would be kind of dull.

[OpieStorm]

I am cautiously optimistic that we in SE Texas will be spared any serious trouble this year.

Aw shoot, you've done it again. Get ready Texas.

[DESTRUCTION5]

I am cautiously optimistic that we in SE Texas will be spared any serious trouble this year.

Aw shoot, you've done it again. Get ready Texas.

LMAO!!!

Ed...Ed...Ed....

[gatorcane]

I detect no pulse at this point in the Atlantic basin. Wind shear continues to be a problem for any systems that wish to approach the Caribbean. You can thank el nino for that. Dry air is everywhere.......models are showing nothing for at least two weeks. Situation is dismal for any tropical system in the Atlantic.

But it's only Aug. 6th though, so much more time left for the Atlantic to pick up. The tropics can change very quickly.