2015 Global model runs discussion

[caneman]

I remember those days as well Steve loved that site too but haven't there in awhile.

[rickybobby]

Wesh 2 (cent fla) just said a lot of models are trying to develop something in the gom. It's way too early but check back on Friday when they have more information.

[chaser1]

I remember those days as well Steve loved that site too but haven't there in awhile.

Whew?! That seemed forever ago for me as well. I had fond memories communicating with several posters there but without getting too specific, but ultimatly I and most others eventually got sick and tired of excessive moderation and eventually left.

[Pearl River]

The boys in Slidell with their latest discussion:

CONDITIONS LOOK TO TURN MORE UNSETTLED HEADING INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A POSSIBLE TROPICAL
LOW OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO HAS INCREASED THIS AFTERNOON...AS BOTH
THE GFS AND THE EURO SHOW A FEATURE FORMING. HOWEVER...THIS SYSTEM
HAS NOT FORMED AT THIS TIME...SO OVERALL UNCERTAINTY REMAINS
HIGHER THAN AVERAGE. UNFORTUNATELY...THERE IS ALSO A GREAT AMOUNT
OF DISAGREEMENT IN THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN BETWEEN THE MODELS
CONCERNING THE NORTHERN STREAM PATTERN. BOTH MODELS INDICATE THAT
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER OVER TEXAS...AND
RIDGING WILL CONTINUES OVER FLORIDA ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
HOWEVER...THE EURO SOLUTION HAS A STRONG TROUGH DEVELOP OVER THE
EASTERN SEABOARD...AND RIDGING FORM OVER THE PLAINS STATES. THIS
PATTERN WILL TEND TO KEEP ANY LOW IN THE GULF FARTHER AWAY FROM
THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...AS THE LOW WOULD BE TRAPPED BENEATH THE
RIDGING TO THE NORTH OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
CONVERSELY...THE GFS KEEPS RIDGING IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN
SEABOARD...AND HAS A TROUGH AXIS DESCENDING INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS STATES. THIS PATTERN WILL TEND TO PULL THE LOW IN THE GULF
FARTHER TO THE NORTH...AND THE GFS HAS THE LOW APPROACHING THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. AT THIS TIME...HAVE
DECIDED TO GO WITH A BLENDED SOLUTION...AND HAVE INCREASING RAIN
CHANCES AND STRONGER WINDS OF AROUND 20 MPH IMPACTING THE COASTAL
WATERS AND IMMEDIATE COASTAL ZONES IN LOUISIANA ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. THE ULTIMATE PATH OF THIS FEATURE WILL BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN THAT DEVELOPS NORTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA.

[blp]

Interesting 12z Ukmet. Picking up the EPAC crossover and cut off low in the WGOM.

[HURRICANELONNY]

Whatever forms should move west as per Miami Discussion. Sounds like as usual there leaning towards the GFS. Infact no mention of any disturbance for next week here in Miami.

Middle and upper ridging will increase over South Florida in
response to upper low setting up over Texas and large surface high
moving off the middle Atlantic coast. Although several days away,
deep easterly flow expected into next week should place the focus
for storms along the West Coast of Florida.

[rickybobby]

Wesh 2 had 2 models and one had it going to the border of tx and mx and the other towards fl.

[chaser1]

Wesh 2 had 2 models and one had it going to the border of tx and mx and the other towards fl.

Huh? BAM's maybe?

[chaser1]

Wait... that was ridiculous. Definitely not the BAMS

[NDG]

As time gets closer both of the most trusty models, GFS & ECMWF, will start backing away from being so aggressive on intensity as shown during the past few days, shear is not going away over the GOM.
And as we get closer I am sure the Regional Models are going to be the ones getting very aggressive with development & intensity just as they did with 96L and other previous disturbances, people will going crazy posting those runs that will never come to fruition.

[stormlover2013]

Models don't have it strong right now anyways

[stormlover2013]

where u get that run from ?

[blp]

FWIW the FIM continues to show this and follows the Euro and pushes it into the BOC

[blp]

To answer the question "why does the Euro move the low back to the southwest", here's its forecast for next Wednesday morning. It has a large area of high pressure blocking it to the north and a cold front moving out into the Gulf. The low can't move NE because the high is building eastward into its path. Instead, the low fills as it sinks back to the SW into the BoC. This "storm" continues to look very fishy to me. None of the models is indicating anything strong, just a weak 1000+mb low, by the way. I didn't look at the Canadian - I'm sure it has the storm at Cat 5 strength...

[http://home.comcast.net/~cgh57/00ZEuro.JPG[/img]

It will be interesting as to where the energy/vort initially arrives from that stalled front the EC displays is
almost always on surface maps with a low attached on the end looks the same as weeks ago.Thinking
it may be originating from a monsoonal wave over the Yukon.

Good question I am wondering the same myself. I think the main energy originates from the EPAC and merges with leftover of the front.

[rickybobby]

Wesh 2 just talked about it. The euro and gfs have something developing next week. A lot of models have it going everywhere. Tony said we have to keep an eye on it in case it hits Florida.

[floridasun78]

miami weather office think going stay west of Florida going bit dry next week

[northjaxpro]

miami weather office think going stay west of Florida going bit dry next week

I agree with them. Any Low Pressure area that tries to organize next week in the GOM will likely be sheared and not strong imo. Also, a potential system will probably get buried into the BOC as High Pressure will build down the Eastern CONUS and block any movement north and east and force any Low pressure to retrograde west or west-southwest.

This is not etched in stone yet, but based on the latest trends I am observing with the models, the scenario I just mentioned in the above paragraph looks to be the most plausible one for me at this time.

[floridasun78]

miami weather office think going stay west of Florida going bit dry next week

I agree with them. Any Low Pressure area will likely be sheared and not strong that tries to get going in the GOM imo. Also, it will be buried into the BOC as High Pressure will build down the Eastern CONUS and block any movement north and east and force any Low pressure to retrograde west or west-southwest.

you right what miami weather office say LONG TERM (SATURDAY-TUESDAY)...

RELATIVELY DRIER AIR ALOFT ALONG WITH WARMING MIDLEVEL TEMPS,
INDICATES DECREASING POPS MORE FOCUSED ALONG THE INTERIOR THIS
WEEKEND. MID AND UPPER RIDGING WILL INCREASE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA IN
RESPONSE TO UPPER LOW SETTING UP OVER TEXAS AND LARGE SURFACE HIGH
MOVING OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST. ALTHOUGH SEVERAL DAYS AWAY,
DEEP EASTERLY FLOW EXPECTED INTO NEXT WEEK SHOULD PLACE THE FOCUS
FOR STORMS ALONG THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA.

[floridasun78]

this keywest their agree with miami office having high build over fl LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
THE AFOREMENTIONED MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH (2ND PARAGRAPH) WILL LIFT
NORTHWARD AND BECOME DIFFUSE...AS A MASSIVE ANTICYCLONE BUILDS NORTHWARD
FROM THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. WITH
THAT SAID...LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE ALONG WITH SOME DRIER AIR WILL PROMPT
LOW CHANCE CLIMO POPS TO BE KEPT FOR THIS TIME FRAME. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
AVERAGE IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 80 WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS MOSTLY NEAR 80
DEGREES.

[northjaxpro]

Also, looking long range, with High Pressure building down north of the Florida peninsula, we could be in for a prolonged period of deep easterly-northeasterly onshore flow here across much of Florida for next week as well.