2015 Global model runs discussion

[Steve]

And speaking of the Canadian, it's a little stronger on 12z and appears to sort of slightly fade to the NNE aiming for MS/AL/W FL at the end of the run before it ends. It looks like it's caught in a squeeze play from a building high from the ESE and a building high centered in the middle of the US.

Who knows?

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/CMCTROPATL ... cloop.html

[stormlover2013]

ends up in SW la the cmc does

[floridasun78]

we need see cloud in nw Caribbean and gulf not thing yet

[Steve]

we need see cloud in nw Caribbean and gulf not thing yet

Well the Canadian sort of coalesces everything around hour 144 which is 6 days. So that's next Monday. It's just a model storm at this point.

ends up in SW la the cmc does

Thanks. I could only get Tropical e-wall's run when I posted that. I guess it must get pushed back for that to happen. Would be a hell of a parallel of Lili's endgame, but I'm not calling for that or anything else at this point. Thing is, this could be one of those situations where there isn't a whole lot of time from genesis to landfall. So I'm just going to keep watching and reading what all of you have to say the rest of this week.

[Ntxw]

Thanks. I could only get Tropical e-wall's run when I posted that. I guess it must get pushed back for that to happen. Would be a hell of a parallel of Lili's endgame, but I'm not calling for that or anything else at this point. Thing is, this could be one of those situations where there isn't a whole lot of time from genesis to landfall. So I'm just going to keep watching and reading what all of you have to say the rest of this week.

The big difference from the models is that upper air environment isn't as favorable. Lilli was already a bonafide hurricane coming into the gulf of Mexico, this will be a messy slop with multiple centers and vortexes in the beginning trying to get together if it does in the middle of the gulf. Would be slow to develop. Similar to the other invests we watched to the west of Florida earlier this year.

[tailgater]

12Z CMC brings it to your house Steve so I'm sure you're safe. On a Nw direction.

[Weatherwatcher98]

Probably a Sheared system if that

[Steve]

Thanks. I could only get Tropical e-wall's run when I posted that. I guess it must get pushed back for that to happen. Would be a hell of a parallel of Lili's endgame, but I'm not calling for that or anything else at this point. Thing is, this could be one of those situations where there isn't a whole lot of time from genesis to landfall. So I'm just going to keep watching and reading what all of you have to say the rest of this week.

The big difference from the models is that upper air environment isn't as favorable. Lilli was already a bonafide hurricane coming into the gulf of Mexico, this will be a messy slop with multiple centers and vortexes in the beginning trying to get together if it does in the middle of the gulf. Would be slow to develop. Similar to the other invests we watched to the west of Florida earlier this year.

I realize that and agree with you. There are more differences than similarities, but once it got hung up or caught on the edge of the Yucatan, it never really recovered and ended up hitting as a 1 or low end 2 down in Vermillion Parish/Abbeville area. But it came up northward (some west component) between 91-92W which was more what I was saying as well as the fact that we'd be around the same date (1st week of October) which is somewhat rare in SW LA.. But like tailgator said, it actually hits SELA and then gets pushed west then up into the Piney Woods and Oklahoma before heading up and out. That would be a very atypical track or heading in the North Central Gulf for a sheared or hybrid system in October. You'd much more expect to see an easterly component as a sheared system would typically be butted up against a front to its west and not the east. I'm not saying impossible. And I don't believe the CMC anyway. But that's a strengthening scenario in almost every case which it usually is in the Gulf with any organized system moving west. There have been some that were cannibalized by larger rotations or spins that faded out in the Gulf moving west, but those are the exception.

Btw, I was confusing Isidore with Lili. Lili skirted past the Yucatan. It was Isadore the week before that got stuck on the Yucatan. That's the one where Frank P watched one of the highest water rises across the street from his house since Betsy (obviously up to that point).

[LarryWx]

The 12Z Euro that I see has it down to 999 mb moving SW toward the BOC at hour 216.

[ScottNAtlanta]

that frontal low looks like a preview of winter!

If you see that in winter with cold air in place that says snow in a big way for the SE US!

[tailgater]

Count the GFDL in the consensus, Somehow 97L gets centered over this possible system,. Navgem seems to holding out. That would be quite a coup.

[LarryWx]

Count the GFDL in the consensus, Somehow 97L gets centered over this possible system,. Navgem seems to holding out. That would be quite a coup.

1) The GFDL having only about a 1003 mb low is almost like it has nothing since it overdevelops so many systems.

2) Today's JMA is the first 12Z run to show a low though it is weak at about 1002 mb landfalling in S TX at hour 168 fwiw.

[N2FSU]

Euro +240hr strengthens it but buries back down in the BOC after a brief stay in the Gulf.

[PTrackerLA]

Euro +240hr strengthens it but buries back down in the BOC after a brief stay in the Gulf.

If there was ever a sign that we have nothing to worry about this year on the northern gulf coast ... .


Just my opinion, of course.

[Stormcenter]

Now we know that's not going to happen......right?

Euro +240hr strengthens it but buries back down in the BOC after a brief stay in the Gulf.

[blp]

Following the vorticity on the Euro, CMC and to a lesser degree the GFS through the first 144hrs, I think this will get started on the EPAC side and crossover. Makes sense since that basin would have the favorable environment to start the process versus the Caribbean or GOM which has been a wasteland this year for cyclogensis.

Interesting how they all now bring the energy up the spine of the Yucatan. If it happens to avoid most of the Yucatan it might get stronger. Still lots of model watching to come.

[stormlover2013]

I do think the models are getting a better handle on the pattern though for next week but still a long way out!!!

[Frank P]

Thanks. I could only get Tropical e-wall's run when I posted that. I guess it must get pushed back for that to happen. Would be a hell of a parallel of Lili's endgame, but I'm not calling for that or anything else at this point. Thing is, this could be one of those situations where there isn't a whole lot of time from genesis to landfall. So I'm just going to keep watching and reading what all of you have to say the rest of this week.

The big difference from the models is that upper air environment isn't as favorable. Lilli was already a bonafide hurricane coming into the gulf of Mexico, this will be a messy slop with multiple centers and vortexes in the beginning trying to get together if it does in the middle of the gulf. Would be slow to develop. Similar to the other invests we watched to the west of Florida earlier this year.

I realize that and agree with you. There are more differences than similarities, but once it got hung up or caught on the edge of the Yucatan, it never really recovered and ended up hitting as a 1 or low end 2 down in Vermillion Parish/Abbeville area. But it came up northward (some west component) between 91-92W which was more what I was saying as well as the fact that we'd be around the same date (1st week of October) which is somewhat rare in SW LA.. But like tailgator said, it actually hits SELA and then gets pushed west then up into the Piney Woods and Oklahoma before heading up and out. That would be a very atypical track or heading in the North Central Gulf for a sheared or hybrid system in October. You'd much more expect to see an easterly component as a sheared system would typically be butted up against a front to its west and not the east. I'm not saying impossible. And I don't believe the CMC anyway. But that's a strengthening scenario in almost every case which it usually is in the Gulf with any organized system moving west. There have been some that were cannibalized by larger rotations or spins that faded out in the Gulf moving west, but those are the exception.

Btw, I was confusing Isidore with Lili. Lili skirted past the Yucatan. It was Isadore the week before that got stuck on the Yucatan. That's the one where Frank P watched one of the highest water rises across the street from his house since Betsy (obviously up to that point).

Steve, storm surge heights on the beach at my house in Biloxi... As best I can recall at the moment, Katrina - 26 feet, Camille - 20 feet, Betsy - 14 feet, Gustav - 11 feet, Isadore - 9 feet, Lili - 8 feet, Elena - 8 feet.... Plus or minus a foot or so for all...

[chaser1]

Given the large scale "flop level" of accuracy that all of the global's have shown, my interest in a lot of the model discussions has been less than from past years. That said, my curiosity is becoming a bit more peaked with the low anticipated to move up from the Yucatan region in a few days. Consecutive model runs by the EURO, along with other model support is leading me to think that there will in fact be some form of low to develop. Like others have said, I would not anticipate a particularly strong storm and one likely to be battling shear for most of its existence.

What I'm very suspect about however, is the idea that the EURO is depicting a storm that gets caught under a eastward migrating southern plains 500mb high which then drives the storm west or SW'ward and into the BOC. Though weaker, I noticed that the 12Z GFS more or less has the same idea in mind. My take on likely scenario's would be for one of the following to occur:

1) My most likely guess would be for a low to slowly move northward, perhaps become stationary for 24 hours as some consolidation occurs and then develop into a large and sloppy Tropical Depression that generally moves to the Northeast while phasing in with a progressive trough pattern over the Eastern Conus. This might pose some coastal flooding issues to the N. and E. Gulf, but its greater impact might be to cause a significant rain event for parts of Florida. Georgia, and Carolina's as the sheared depression (or weak T.S.?) moves inland somewhere around the Ceder Key, Fl. area, and then exiting off of the Georgia or S. Carolina coastline. Such would then usher south the first noticeable cool front into S. Georgia and Northern half of Florida. OR,
2) a system that might peak as a strong depression or weak T.S. in the Central Gulf, then simply becomes severely sheared apart by strong westerlies aloft, while attempting to move to the WSW towards the BOC under mid/lower level steering.

Though I rather doubt it, I wouldn't rule out the possibility of some last moment intensification perhaps just prior to NE Gulf landfall and/or perhaps after emerging off the N. Florida or Georgia coastline, but that may be due to its having moved under somewhat less volatile upper air conditions at the time, or simply to due to baroclinic forcing.

Finally, if recent history proves accurate I"m gong to guess that both the EURO and GFS will eventually both drop tropical development but not before tomorrow's or Wednesday's EURO runs start depicting a more delayed and weaker low to develop and then show its energy being pulled up to the Northeast in phase with the approaching shortwave at that time. Oddly, I'd also expect one or two runs of the GFS to start depicting a tighter and somewhat stronger low developing further east, and deepening while moving Northeast'ward toward the E. Fla. Panhandle... all before finally backing off the solution of real tropical development.

[Steve]

Steve, storm surge heights on the beach at my house in Biloxi... As best I can recall at the moment, Katrina - 26 feet, Camille - 20 feet, Betsy - 14 feet, Gustav - 11 feet, Isadore - 9 feet, Lili - 8 feet, Elena - 8 feet.... Plus or minus a foot or so for all...

Right on Frank. So that would be #3 because Lili, Katrina and Gustav came later. Damn, I think this site was founded in 2002 (or the next generation of it) so we must have been discussing Isidore on CFHC back then. I haven't been over there in ages, but I hope all those guys are doing well.