Low pressure developing over the western Caribbean Sea (Is Invest 97L)

[Steve]

You have to ignore the intensity on the NAMs. The 3km is worse and often drops storms below 900. Haha. This is for 500mb pattern.

[TampaWxLurker]

Checking back in. Nothing yet? Can't say I'm surprised. Though it is disappointing, if only from a "it'd be nice to know so I can adequately plan out my week" perspective. Models still having a tough go of it, too.

Its probably going to stay a big disorganized blob for another day or 2. But once it organizes, it'll basically be on top of wherever its going. 2, 3 days max time warning for the general populace that doesn't pay as close attention as we do. The stores around the general vicinity of its final destination are going to be a madhouse.

Once again I reiterate, I hate CAG-originating storms.

[Steve]

Here we go - NAM 12km 12z 78 hours has the cutoff low. Low cuts off early morning hours Wednesday so I was being impatient. It has it in a similar place as the ICON 06z OK/AR border and a little south of the 06 GFS. The 12z is running now.

If this holds, look for the mobile to Destin (give or take) landfall becoming more likely.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 2212&fh=78

That’s good news for us in Tampa Bay area. *breathing sigh of relief*

For sure Dave. But it’s only one model. ICON should be close to showing what it thinks since we don’t need the whole run to load. It’s only out to 6 hours on Levi’s site so far.

[ThomasW]

It does look bad, a bit inland, but this was 3 hours ago

https://i.imgur.com/cVl5t14.gif

From what I know, these charts are largely model-based, hence the unrealistically low vorticity on budding Invest 96E. So if the models whiff, these become useless.

The product is based on satellite, the model is just the background structure where there is insufficient cloud data. There are currently lots of clouds there.

Atmospheric Motion Vector (AMV) Gridded Analysis

Background: Analyses are calculated utilizing gridded output from the auto editing process of the satellite atmospheric motion vector (AMV) fields. The AMV data are fit to a one degree grid at the following heights (100, 150, 200, 250, 300, 350, 400, 500, 600, 700, 775, 850, and 925 hPa), with data sparse regions at each height filled with numerical model output. Grids consist of u and v wind components.

The background model used is United States NOAA's GFS model.

More info on AMV https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/misc/winds ... ds.ir.html

Atmospheric Motion Vectors are derived using a sequence of three images. Features are targeted in the second image (cirrus cloud edges, gradients in water vapor, small cumulus clouds, etc.) are tracked within the first and third images yielding two displacement vectors. These vectors are averaged to derive the final wind vector.

Vector heights are assigned in a two-step process. The first utilizes the measured radiances of the target and is based on the spectral response function of the individual satellite and channel being sampled. The brightness temperature of the target is derived from this radiance measurement. Once determined, the brightness temperature is compared with a collocated numerical model guess temperature profile, from which an initial height is estimated. The final vector height is derived in the post-processing of the vector field.

Thanks for the information! You learn something new every day.

[idaknowman]

You must be in central or northern Florida. Here in Cutler Bay (10 miles or so south of Miami), a friend who lives one block away was quoted $15k yearly. That's on a typical 3/2 home built in the 60s.

Any severe hit on Florida will accelerate the insurance crisis and real estate collapse. My insurance was 800 a year three years ago. It is 2700 now with estimates of heading to 7-10K per year. We are in big big trouble!

[hurricanehunter69]

MIMIC-TPW clearly showing the flow of unstable air from the EPAC into the W Carib.
https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/ ... anim=html5

Also, the east to west low-level winds pile up along the shore of Nicaragua creating an area of LL convergence.
Likely area of development will be the somewhere around th e Hon/Nic border.

man, This has the look of a possible beast getting ready to spin up in the NW Carib. As for track, definitely looks due north..( short term ).

[StormPyrate]

You must be in central or northern Florida. Here in Cutler Bay (10 miles or so south of Miami), a friend who lives one block away was quoted $15k yearly. That's on a typical 3/2 home built in the 60s.

Any severe hit on Florida will accelerate the insurance crisis and real estate collapse. My insurance was 800 a year three years ago. It is 2700 now with estimates of heading to 7-10K per year. We are in big big trouble!

In clearwater our rates are stabilizing, lots of the recent reforms are kicking in.
You cannot use antecdotal cases to make a true statement of the entire state.
Lots to be done still, but the state cannot survive another major storm just is not true.

[Ubuntwo]

We have beaten Francine's record for the longest "pre-invest" thread.

Not yet, the record is pre-Nicole in 2010 with 1,461 posts and 74 pages. We are fast closing in though, will the invest get tagged first?

[BobHarlem]

It looks like peninsula Florida dodging another storm thanks for the update.

Nope definetly not there yet, range is really MS to Naples.



Also heavy reminder there's nothing even close on the vorticity charts yet to even attempt to latch onto. Storms coming from this area have been some of the worst type of systems for sudden surprises. (Which goes both ways) I would not mess around with this. We'll probably have at best 60-48 hours before we may really have a decent idea beyond that.

[boca]

Here we go - NAM 12km 12z 78 hours has the cutoff low. Low cuts off early morning hours Wednesday so I was being impatient. It has it in a similar place as the ICON 06z OK/AR border and a little south of the 06 GFS. The 12z is running now.

If this holds, look for the mobile to Destin (give or take) landfall becoming more likely.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 2212&fh=78

That’s good news for us in Tampa Bay area. *breathing sigh of relief*

For sure Dave. But it’s only one model. ICON should be close to showing what it thinks since we don’t need the whole run to load. It’s only out to 6 hours on Levi’s site so far.

I was looking at the new info from what Steve posted about the cut off low which lessens the affect to my area of the state if landfall was in fact Destin area.

[pcolaman]

You must be in central or northern Florida. Here in Cutler Bay (10 miles or so south of Miami), a friend who lives one block away was quoted $15k yearly. That's on a typical 3/2 home built in the 60s.

Any severe hit on Florida will accelerate the insurance crisis and real estate collapse. My insurance was 800 a year three years ago. It is 2700 now with estimates of heading to 7-10K per year. We are in big big trouble!

In clearwater our rates are stabilizing, lots of the recent reforms are kicking in.
You cannot use antecdotal cases to make a true statement of the entire state.
Lots to be done still, but the state cannot survive another major storm just is not true.

Just renewed last month and was 3700 here in Pensacola, Went with the lower deductible this time and glad I did!!

[GCANE]

MIMIC-TPW clearly showing the flow of unstable air from the EPAC into the W Carib.
https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/ ... anim=html5

Also, the east to west low-level winds pile up along the shore of Nicaragua creating an area of LL convergence.
Likely area of development will be the somewhere around th e Hon/Nic border.

man, This has the look of a possible beast getting ready to spin up in the NW Carib. As for track, definitely looks due north..( short term ).

Once that front starts moving back north, it'll be go time.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... uct=wv_mid

[BobHarlem]

12z icon is much faster than 0z with a Friday landfall near panama city beach. (0z was Sunday landfall near the Big Bend near alligator point) Still want to call out there's no real system in the W. Carib yet though.

[Steve]

ICON has the cut off low a little farther east than the 12km NAM and its previous run which you’d assume will mean landfall on this run will be closer to Walton and Bay Counties.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 2212&fh=78

[Hypercane_Kyle]

I'd be on high alert right now anywhere from Tampa to New Orleans with this one. Won't know for sure until the LLC forms which state gets the brunt.

[Stormlover70]

12z icon is much faster than 0z with a Friday landfall near panama city beach. (0z was Sunday landfall near the Big Bend near alligator point) Still want to call out there's no real system in the W. Carib yet though.

https://i.imgur.com/INpR8r3.png

I will take 45 mph winds anytime but I really think models will shift east unfortunately. My arthritis is acting up just like before irma.

[StormPyrate]

12z icon is much faster than 0z with a Friday landfall near panama city beach. (0z was Sunday landfall near the Big Bend near alligator point) Still want to call out there's no real system in the W. Carib yet though.

https://i.imgur.com/INpR8r3.png

I will take 45 mph winds anytime but I really think models will shift east unfortunately. My arthritis is acting up just like before irma.

Irma did not form in this part of the basin, would be tough to get that track

[Poonwalker]

Shrimping off Honduras Nicaraguan coast!

[Blown Away]

Let’s just remember all the model runs on Ian 4.5 days out…

[StormPyrate]

When do yall think we will see an invest?
seems a tad overdue