2015 Global model runs discussion

[Brent]

Can you please post an image. Thanks!

The 12z EURO has whatever going into TX.....at 180hrs none of these models can't be trusted...but analize away..

Granted it is 240 hours away but here it is

[Alyono]

looks like the 0Z EC buries this in the GOM

[ronjon]

Euro brings the system into the central GOM and then shunts in south toward BOC. Seems unlikely. Meanwhile, the CMC brings a hurricane into the NE GOM. GFS also brings a weaker tropical cyclone into the NE GOM.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gem&region=us&pkg=mslp_uv850&runtime=2015092200&fh=192&xpos=0&ypos=328

[Alyono]

new MU FINALLY with a realistic solution of a very weak low

[stormlover2013]

06 gfs is farther west

[NDG]

The GFS keeps showing that the system will get decapitated as it tracks across the GOM, the reason why it shows a weak surface low meandering around, the mid level vorticity gets ripped away towards the north by the shear.

[stormlover2013]

I wouldn't be surprise by Thursday the models show nothing

[blp]

00z UKmet making an appearance with a low in the WGOM. Now within 5 days. So another model added in the mix.

[blp]

The GFS Ensembles have really shifted West since 12z yesterday when you had a strong cluster over the EGOM. Now the cluster is in the WGOM and BOC. Also much weaker from the Ensembles. Let's see if the trend continues. Looks like the WGOM and BOC may be the genesis point if anything forms.

12Z Ensembles


06Z Ensembles

[NDG]

http://i61.tinypic.com/2usec1z.png

GFS shear model maybe something amiss because almost all the GOM is low shear leading into the time frame.

You are going too far in time, this is correct time frame lots of strong UL winds as it enters the GOM, it gets elongated and decapitated as it tracks closer to the northern gulf coast:

[gatorcane]

What is causing the system to get pushed SW in the 00Z run of the ECMWF? Looks like a pretty clear weakness over the EGOM and SE United States coast. Why wouldn't it go NE or even ENE instead?

[stormlover2013]

models will keep jumping until llc is formed, GFS is now back west, I have a feeling nothing is going to develop but we shall see

[NDG]

What is causing the system to get pushed SW in the 00Z run of the ECMWF? Looks like a pretty clear weakness over the EGOM and SE United States coast. Why wouldn't it go NE or even ENE instead?

http://i.imgur.com/0V2Pjxa.png

Probably because it decapitates it also, the mid level vorticity gets pulled to the north while the low level circulation gets left behind and gets pushed back south by a building surface high to the north.

[LarryWx]

models will keep jumping until llc is formed, GFS is now back west, I have a feeling nothing is going to develop but we shall see

Kudos to the JMA if very little or essentially nothing were to happen.

[wxman57]

To answer the question "why does the Euro move the low back to the southwest", here's its forecast for next Wednesday morning. It has a large area of high pressure blocking it to the north and a cold front moving out into the Gulf. The low can't move NE because the high is building eastward into its path. Instead, the low fills as it sinks back to the SW into the BoC. This "storm" continues to look very fishy to me. None of the models is indicating anything strong, just a weak 1000+mb low, by the way. I didn't look at the Canadian - I'm sure it has the storm at Cat 5 strength...

[terstorm1012]

that frontal low looks like a preview of winter!

[gatorcane]

To answer the question "why does the Euro move the low back to the southwest", here's its forecast for next Wednesday morning. It has a large area of high pressure blocking it to the north and a cold front moving out into the Gulf. The low can't move NE because the high is building eastward into its path. Instead, the low fills as it sinks back to the SW into the BoC. This "storm" continues to look very fishy to me. None of the models is indicating anything strong, just a weak 1000+mb low, by the way. I didn't look at the Canadian - I'm sure it has the storm at Cat 5 strength... http://home.comcast.net/~cgh57/00ZEuro.JPG

Thanks for that explanation Wxman, it really helps. I agree the this Euro "storm" seems a bit suspect but let's see what happens over the next several runs. The GFS is shifting more to the west now in the Gulf where the ECMWF has had this system developing for the past several days. The GFS does seem to decapitate the system though instead and the latest 06Z shows nothing but a weak low now.

[Steve]

To answer the question "why does the Euro move the low back to the southwest", here's its forecast for next Wednesday morning. It has a large area of high pressure blocking it to the north and a cold front moving out into the Gulf. The low can't move NE because the high is building eastward into its path. Instead, the low fills as it sinks back to the SW into the BoC. This "storm" continues to look very fishy to me. None of the models is indicating anything strong, just a weak 1000+mb low, by the way. I didn't look at the Canadian - I'm sure it has the storm at Cat 5 strength...

haha. The CMC hits SC with a 1 ring isobar low then forms something else right off Chesapeake Bay which then grazes the big cities on the US East Coast. Ida becomes a bigtime beast out in the middle of nowhere and accounts for what clearly looks like a jack up of ACE. Then the CMC brings the NW Caribbean low across the Yucatan and straight north, intensifying of course, with a new high building in to the north. Implausible, but I think the Ida scenario could possibly work.

[blp]

models will keep jumping until llc is formed, GFS is now back west, I have a feeling nothing is going to develop but we shall see

I agree. We can't trust the models with this setup on point of origin. And point of origin will be very important.

Even with this super charged El Nino, the traditional favorable areas such as BOC and NW Caribbean could provide a conducive environment. The GOM looks hostile for genesis it needs to start further south.

[blp]

MJO signal is stronger again today. I expect the 12z runs to be a little stronger as well.