2019 Indicators: SST'S / Sal / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability (See updated graphics at first post)

[tarheelprogrammer]

So a few weak model runs and the season cancellers come back?

It is almost September and conditions are struggling to improve. Most systems are underperforming. It is getting to a point where it is time to admit that a below average season is a strong possibility. Am I completely ruling out the possibility of an uptick in activity? No, but this is a place to talk about current and future conditions. Currently, the Atlantic is struggling and so are all the other basins. It happens. 2013 has shown us it is possible.

Can we stop bringing up the 2013 comparisons everytime we get a lull in activity? 2013, like 2005, is a very rare event, and the conditions that made 2013 happen are not the conditions we have now. Yes, we can have a below average season, but there are several seasons that started off slow and ramped up quickly in September and October. 2001 is a very good example of a season like this, and conditions are more similar to 2001 than they are to 2013 - because 2001 is a "normal" season while 2013 is an extreme anomaly. Even in 2016, the season started off very weak but ended with a bang in October. There are way more years where conditions caused a season to be backloaded than years where an unexpected weakening of the thermohaline circulation cause major atmospheric disruptions and a suppression of cyclogenesis (aka 2013, the season that every season is compared to).

Comparing every single season to 2013 whenever there is a weak model run is like comparing the season to 2005 whenever there is an uptick in activity. But every single year since 2013 (including 2017, which is on a level with 2005) has been compared to 2013 in some form during the season. If there is evidence that suggests that the Atlantic will remain dead in September, it would be greatly appreciated. But simply using a few model runs to claim that the Atlantic will stay dead in September is not helpful (it certainly didn't help in August).

We have had ONE WEAK TS in August so far and we could possibly have a few more storms. However, if those do not pan out by the end of the month then you are looking at a VERY SLOW August which is quite rare. Comparisons are fair game here since we use analogs to determine things which is also a comparison. Am I saying it is exactly 2013 all over again? No, I am not. The reason people bring up 2013 is because it is recent. It is not, however, the only quiet season. There have been other examples given by many others. It is a convenient comparison.

[DioBrando]

It is almost September and conditions are struggling to improve. Most systems are underperforming. It is getting to a point where it is time to admit that a below average season is a strong possibility. Am I completely ruling out the possibility of an uptick in activity? No, but this is a place to talk about current and future conditions. Currently, the Atlantic is struggling and so are all the other basins. It happens. 2013 has shown us it is possible.

Can we stop bringing up the 2013 comparisons everytime we get a lull in activity? 2013, like 2005, is a very rare event, and the conditions that made 2013 happen are not the conditions we have now. Yes, we can have a below average season, but there are several seasons that started off slow and ramped up quickly in September and October. 2001 is a very good example of a season like this, and conditions are more similar to 2001 than they are to 2013 - because 2001 is a "normal" season while 2013 is an extreme anomaly. Even in 2016, the season started off very weak but ended with a bang in October. There are way more years where conditions caused a season to be backloaded than years where an unexpected weakening of the thermohaline circulation cause major atmospheric disruptions and a suppression of cyclogenesis (aka 2013, the season that every season is compared to).

Comparing every single season to 2013 whenever there is a weak model run is like comparing the season to 2005 whenever there is an uptick in activity. But every single year since 2013 (including 2017, which is on a level with 2005) has been compared to 2013 in some form during the season. If there is evidence that suggests that the Atlantic will remain dead in September, it would be greatly appreciated. But simply using a few model runs to claim that the Atlantic will stay dead in September is not helpful (it certainly didn't help in August).

We have had ONE WEAK TS in August so far and we could possibly have a few more storms. However, if those do not pan out by the end of the month then you are looking at a VERY SLOW August which is quite rare. Comparisons are fair game here since we use analogs to determine things which is also a comparison. Am I saying it is exactly 2013 all over again? No, I am not. The reason people bring up 2013 is because it is recent. It is not, however, the only quiet season. There have been other examples given by many others. It is a convenient comparison.

We just got Dorian. Forecast to be AT LEAST a Category 1.

[tarheelprogrammer]

Can we stop bringing up the 2013 comparisons everytime we get a lull in activity? 2013, like 2005, is a very rare event, and the conditions that made 2013 happen are not the conditions we have now. Yes, we can have a below average season, but there are several seasons that started off slow and ramped up quickly in September and October. 2001 is a very good example of a season like this, and conditions are more similar to 2001 than they are to 2013 - because 2001 is a "normal" season while 2013 is an extreme anomaly. Even in 2016, the season started off very weak but ended with a bang in October. There are way more years where conditions caused a season to be backloaded than years where an unexpected weakening of the thermohaline circulation cause major atmospheric disruptions and a suppression of cyclogenesis (aka 2013, the season that every season is compared to).

Comparing every single season to 2013 whenever there is a weak model run is like comparing the season to 2005 whenever there is an uptick in activity. But every single year since 2013 (including 2017, which is on a level with 2005) has been compared to 2013 in some form during the season. If there is evidence that suggests that the Atlantic will remain dead in September, it would be greatly appreciated. But simply using a few model runs to claim that the Atlantic will stay dead in September is not helpful (it certainly didn't help in August).

We have had ONE WEAK TS in August so far and we could possibly have a few more storms. However, if those do not pan out by the end of the month then you are looking at a VERY SLOW August which is quite rare. Comparisons are fair game here since we use analogs to determine things which is also a comparison. Am I saying it is exactly 2013 all over again? No, I am not. The reason people bring up 2013 is because it is recent. It is not, however, the only quiet season. There have been other examples given by many others. It is a convenient comparison.

We just got Dorian. Forecast to be AT LEAST a Category 1.

We shall see if it gets there and that would put us at 2/2/0 for the entire season up until this point. Where is ACE at? What are the typical numbers at this point in the season?

[zhukm29]

It is almost September and conditions are struggling to improve. Most systems are underperforming. It is getting to a point where it is time to admit that a below average season is a strong possibility. Am I completely ruling out the possibility of an uptick in activity? No, but this is a place to talk about current and future conditions. Currently, the Atlantic is struggling and so are all the other basins. It happens. 2013 has shown us it is possible.

Can we stop bringing up the 2013 comparisons everytime we get a lull in activity? 2013, like 2005, is a very rare event, and the conditions that made 2013 happen are not the conditions we have now. Yes, we can have a below average season, but there are several seasons that started off slow and ramped up quickly in September and October. 2001 is a very good example of a season like this, and conditions are more similar to 2001 than they are to 2013 - because 2001 is a "normal" season while 2013 is an extreme anomaly. Even in 2016, the season started off very weak but ended with a bang in October. There are way more years where conditions caused a season to be backloaded than years where an unexpected weakening of the thermohaline circulation cause major atmospheric disruptions and a suppression of cyclogenesis (aka 2013, the season that every season is compared to).

Comparing every single season to 2013 whenever there is a weak model run is like comparing the season to 2005 whenever there is an uptick in activity. But every single year since 2013 (including 2017, which is on a level with 2005) has been compared to 2013 in some form during the season. If there is evidence that suggests that the Atlantic will remain dead in September, it would be greatly appreciated. But simply using a few model runs to claim that the Atlantic will stay dead in September is not helpful (it certainly didn't help in August).

We have had ONE WEAK TS in August so far and we could possibly have a few more storms. However, if those do not pan out by the end of the month then you are looking at a VERY SLOW August which is quite rare. Comparisons are fair game here since we use analogs to determine things which is also a comparison. Am I saying it is exactly 2013 all over again? No, I am not. The reason people bring up 2013 is because it is recent. It is not, however, the only quiet season. There have been other examples given by many others. It is a convenient comparison.

Again, if you have evidence that September will be dead other than model runs, which have done very poorly so far on cyclogenesis, please provide them before you make a claim like this. I'm not saying that 2019 isn't going to be a quiet season, because it very well might be. But making claims that the season will be dead based on a few bad model runs does not help the discussion nor anyone in the thread. The activity of a season is determined by the environmental conditions involved, not how many storms formed in August.

Also, analogs are helpful if the environmental conditions are similar. If you want to mention how SSTs or wind shear patterns are similar to a quiet season and how that might mean a quieter 2019, go ahead. But bringing up an analog to another season just because it is quiet so far isn't very useful. Yes, 2013 was quiet up to August 24. But guess which other seasons were quiet up to August 24? 2001 and 2016, just to name a few. These seasons were certainly not quiet at the end. With the exception of Chris, the bulk of 2018 didn't even begin until Florence formed at the beginning of September.

I have nothing against "season cancel" posts if they are backed up with evidence. But posts that make a judgment based on a few model runs and "2013 was like this so 2019 will also be like this" do not move the discussion forward in my opinion. Sometimes you get it right, but other times you get burned like in the case of 2017.

[AnnularCane]

Slow August or not, this month has certainly gotten more active than I would have thought not even a week ago.

[CyclonicFury]

We have had ONE WEAK TS in August so far and we could possibly have a few more storms. However, if those do not pan out by the end of the month then you are looking at a VERY SLOW August which is quite rare. Comparisons are fair game here since we use analogs to determine things which is also a comparison. Am I saying it is exactly 2013 all over again? No, I am not. The reason people bring up 2013 is because it is recent. It is not, however, the only quiet season. There have been other examples given by many others. It is a convenient comparison.

We just got Dorian. Forecast to be AT LEAST a Category 1.

We shall see if it gets there and that would put us at 2/2/0 for the entire season up until this point. Where is ACE at? What are the typical numbers at this point in the season?

So far we are at 4/1/0 (average is 4/1.6/0.5) with 4.1 ACE (average is 20.4).

[tarheelprogrammer]

We just got Dorian. Forecast to be AT LEAST a Category 1.

We shall see if it gets there and that would put us at 2/2/0 for the entire season up until this point. Where is ACE at? What are the typical numbers at this point in the season?

So far we are at 4/1/0 (average is 4/1.6/0.5) with 4.1 ACE (average is 20.4).

Had a typo and meant 4 TS. Okay, so numbers are there, but ACE is off. How do these numbers compare to the same time in 2013?

[CyclonicFury]

We shall see if it gets there and that would put us at 2/2/0 for the entire season up until this point. Where is ACE at? What are the typical numbers at this point in the season?

So far we are at 4/1/0 (average is 4/1.6/0.5) with 4.1 ACE (average is 20.4).

Had a typo and meant 4 TS. Okay, so numbers are there, but ACE is off. How do these numbers compare to the same time in 2013?

2013 was at 4/0/0 at this time with similar ACE to 2019 and finished 14/2/0 with 36 ACE. However 2001 was also 4/0/0 and ended 15/9/4 with 110 ACE.

[tarheelprogrammer]

Can we stop bringing up the 2013 comparisons everytime we get a lull in activity? 2013, like 2005, is a very rare event, and the conditions that made 2013 happen are not the conditions we have now. Yes, we can have a below average season, but there are several seasons that started off slow and ramped up quickly in September and October. 2001 is a very good example of a season like this, and conditions are more similar to 2001 than they are to 2013 - because 2001 is a "normal" season while 2013 is an extreme anomaly. Even in 2016, the season started off very weak but ended with a bang in October. There are way more years where conditions caused a season to be backloaded than years where an unexpected weakening of the thermohaline circulation cause major atmospheric disruptions and a suppression of cyclogenesis (aka 2013, the season that every season is compared to).

Comparing every single season to 2013 whenever there is a weak model run is like comparing the season to 2005 whenever there is an uptick in activity. But every single year since 2013 (including 2017, which is on a level with 2005) has been compared to 2013 in some form during the season. If there is evidence that suggests that the Atlantic will remain dead in September, it would be greatly appreciated. But simply using a few model runs to claim that the Atlantic will stay dead in September is not helpful (it certainly didn't help in August).

We have had ONE WEAK TS in August so far and we could possibly have a few more storms. However, if those do not pan out by the end of the month then you are looking at a VERY SLOW August which is quite rare. Comparisons are fair game here since we use analogs to determine things which is also a comparison. Am I saying it is exactly 2013 all over again? No, I am not. The reason people bring up 2013 is because it is recent. It is not, however, the only quiet season. There have been other examples given by many others. It is a convenient comparison.

Again, if you have evidence that September will be dead other than model runs, which have done very poorly so far on cyclogenesis, please provide them before you make a claim like this. I'm not saying that 2019 isn't going to be a quiet season, because it very well might be. But making claims that the season will be dead based on a few bad model runs does not help the discussion nor anyone in the thread. The activity of a season is determined by the environmental conditions involved, not how many storms formed in August.

Also, analogs are helpful if the environmental conditions are similar. If you want to mention how SSTs or wind shear patterns are similar to a quiet season and how that might mean a quieter 2019, go ahead. But bringing up an analog to another season just because it is quiet so far isn't very useful. Yes, 2013 was quiet up to August 24. But guess which other seasons were quiet up to August 24? 2001 and 2016, just to name a few. These seasons were certainly not quiet at the end. With the exception of Chris, the bulk of 2018 didn't even begin until Florence formed at the beginning of September.

I have nothing against "season cancel" posts if they are backed up with evidence. But posts that make a judgment based on a few model runs and "2013 was like this so 2019 will also be like this" do not move the discussion forward in my opinion. Sometimes you get it right, but other times you get burned like in the case of 2017.

Is this a place to only talk after the season is done when it is a quiet season? The evidence is that SO FAR the Atlantic has been very quiet. That could soon change. People calling out people for calling for a quiet season or hinting at it being a possibility seems to be counter productive. Would I call out someone who thinks the season is going to be extremely active when we have had 6/4/2 by the end of August? Nope. Then why call out people for questioning a season that has so far under performed? Time will always tell in these cases. My science to back things up SO FAR is that the season has been much quieter than usual going into the peak of the season.

[CyclonicFury]

We have had ONE WEAK TS in August so far and we could possibly have a few more storms. However, if those do not pan out by the end of the month then you are looking at a VERY SLOW August which is quite rare. Comparisons are fair game here since we use analogs to determine things which is also a comparison. Am I saying it is exactly 2013 all over again? No, I am not. The reason people bring up 2013 is because it is recent. It is not, however, the only quiet season. There have been other examples given by many others. It is a convenient comparison.

Again, if you have evidence that September will be dead other than model runs, which have done very poorly so far on cyclogenesis, please provide them before you make a claim like this. I'm not saying that 2019 isn't going to be a quiet season, because it very well might be. But making claims that the season will be dead based on a few bad model runs does not help the discussion nor anyone in the thread. The activity of a season is determined by the environmental conditions involved, not how many storms formed in August.

Also, analogs are helpful if the environmental conditions are similar. If you want to mention how SSTs or wind shear patterns are similar to a quiet season and how that might mean a quieter 2019, go ahead. But bringing up an analog to another season just because it is quiet so far isn't very useful. Yes, 2013 was quiet up to August 24. But guess which other seasons were quiet up to August 24? 2001 and 2016, just to name a few. These seasons were certainly not quiet at the end. With the exception of Chris, the bulk of 2018 didn't even begin until Florence formed at the beginning of September.

I have nothing against "season cancel" posts if they are backed up with evidence. But posts that make a judgment based on a few model runs and "2013 was like this so 2019 will also be like this" do not move the discussion forward in my opinion. Sometimes you get it right, but other times you get burned like in the case of 2017.

Is this a place to only talk after the season is done when it is a quiet season? The evidence is that SO FAR the Atlantic has been very quiet. That could soon change. People calling out people for calling for a quiet season or hinting at it being a possibility seems to be counter productive. Would I call out someone who thinks the season is going to be extremely active when we have had 6/4/2 by the end of August? Nope. Then why call out people for questioning a season that has so far under performed? Time will always tell in these cases. My science to back things up SO FAR is that the season has been much quieter than usual going into the peak of the season.

The issue is, every year around this time you seem to always have a "gut feeling" without evidence to back it up that the season will end up like 2013. I think you should look at other seasons than 2013, since 2013 is an anomaly.

[tarheelprogrammer]

Again, if you have evidence that September will be dead other than model runs, which have done very poorly so far on cyclogenesis, please provide them before you make a claim like this. I'm not saying that 2019 isn't going to be a quiet season, because it very well might be. But making claims that the season will be dead based on a few bad model runs does not help the discussion nor anyone in the thread. The activity of a season is determined by the environmental conditions involved, not how many storms formed in August.

Also, analogs are helpful if the environmental conditions are similar. If you want to mention how SSTs or wind shear patterns are similar to a quiet season and how that might mean a quieter 2019, go ahead. But bringing up an analog to another season just because it is quiet so far isn't very useful. Yes, 2013 was quiet up to August 24. But guess which other seasons were quiet up to August 24? 2001 and 2016, just to name a few. These seasons were certainly not quiet at the end. With the exception of Chris, the bulk of 2018 didn't even begin until Florence formed at the beginning of September.

I have nothing against "season cancel" posts if they are backed up with evidence. But posts that make a judgment based on a few model runs and "2013 was like this so 2019 will also be like this" do not move the discussion forward in my opinion. Sometimes you get it right, but other times you get burned like in the case of 2017.

Is this a place to only talk after the season is done when it is a quiet season? The evidence is that SO FAR the Atlantic has been very quiet. That could soon change. People calling out people for calling for a quiet season or hinting at it being a possibility seems to be counter productive. Would I call out someone who thinks the season is going to be extremely active when we have had 6/4/2 by the end of August? Nope. Then why call out people for questioning a season that has so far under performed? Time will always tell in these cases. My science to back things up SO FAR is that the season has been much quieter than usual going into the peak of the season.

The issue is, every year around this time you seem to always have a "gut feeling" without evidence to back it up that the season will end up like 2013. I think you should look at other seasons than 2013, since 2013 is an anomaly.

Every quiet season is an anomaly and every active season is an anomaly. I tend to back up my beliefs, but we all do go on OPINIONS. Since most of us do not work for the NHC or are a MET. It is supposed to be a discussion and I typically call for more active seasons in my numbers pre-season if you check previous polls I have done. Just because someone doesn't think we are getting ready to go through a hyper active season doesn't mean they are wrong. To be honest it means they are likely to be more right than wrong, same vice versa. I will leave it at that.

[BYG Jacob]

Is this a place to only talk after the season is done when it is a quiet season? The evidence is that SO FAR the Atlantic has been very quiet. That could soon change. People calling out people for calling for a quiet season or hinting at it being a possibility seems to be counter productive. Would I call out someone who thinks the season is going to be extremely active when we have had 6/4/2 by the end of August? Nope. Then why call out people for questioning a season that has so far under performed? Time will always tell in these cases. My science to back things up SO FAR is that the season has been much quieter than usual going into the peak of the season.

The issue is, every year around this time you seem to always have a "gut feeling" without evidence to back it up that the season will end up like 2013. I think you should look at other seasons than 2013, since 2013 is an anomaly.

Every quiet season is an anomaly and every active season is an anomaly. I tend to back up my beliefs, but we all do go on OPINIONS. Since most of us do not work for the NHC or are a MET. It is supposed to be a discussion and I typically call for more active seasons in my numbers pre-season if you check previous polls I have done. Just because someone doesn't think we are getting ready to go through a hyper active season doesn't mean they are wrong. To be honest it means they are likely to be more right than wrong, same vice versa. I will leave it at that.

Number of people who have called for a hyperactive 2019: 0

[Hammy]

Is this a place to only talk after the season is done when it is a quiet season? The evidence is that SO FAR the Atlantic has been very quiet. That could soon change. People calling out people for calling for a quiet season or hinting at it being a possibility seems to be counter productive. Would I call out someone who thinks the season is going to be extremely active when we have had 6/4/2 by the end of August? Nope. Then why call out people for questioning a season that has so far under performed? Time will always tell in these cases. My science to back things up SO FAR is that the season has been much quieter than usual going into the peak of the season.

The issue is, every year around this time you seem to always have a "gut feeling" without evidence to back it up that the season will end up like 2013. I think you should look at other seasons than 2013, since 2013 is an anomaly.

Every quiet season is an anomaly and every active season is an anomaly. I tend to back up my beliefs, but we all do go on OPINIONS. Since most of us do not work for the NHC or are a MET. It is supposed to be a discussion and I typically call for more active seasons in my numbers pre-season if you check previous polls I have done. Just because someone doesn't think we are getting ready to go through a hyper active season doesn't mean they are wrong. To be honest it means they are likely to be more right than wrong, same vice versa. I will leave it at that.

2013 was on the extreme end, and went well outside of signals that are normally used, and again there were things happening that year that are not even close to happening this year. For that to even be a valid comparison, you'd have mid-level cutoff lows in the Atlantic (not there), waves failing to exit Africa (not happening), and Barry would've dissipated over the Gulf rather than making it to hurricane intensity.

Also I'm not a mod but wonder if this whole debate should be moved to the 'thoughts on the rest of the season' thread.

[dexterlabio]

I'm sorry but I'm under the impression that the conditions in the Atlantic are starting to improve, thus the emergence of a couple of invest areas and one TS, or am I reading the shear and VI maps wrong?

Just my two cents...we need to avoid being too fixated on analog years. Know that every year has its own unique characteristics than the others. For example, when people say that one year "remind" them of 2017, some would be inclined to think that sometime in late August, a rapidly intensifying Cat 4 should be in NW GOM, then a Cat5 should be approaching the Caribbean by September 3. An analog year can give us an idea of what the current season will end up like, but it shouldn't be regarded as a fixed "schedule of tropical activity" in the present.

[tolakram]

Is this a place to only talk after the season is done when it is a quiet season? The evidence is that SO FAR the Atlantic has been very quiet. That could soon change. People calling out people for calling for a quiet season or hinting at it being a possibility seems to be counter productive. Would I call out someone who thinks the season is going to be extremely active when we have had 6/4/2 by the end of August? Nope. Then why call out people for questioning a season that has so far under performed? Time will always tell in these cases. My science to back things up SO FAR is that the season has been much quieter than usual going into the peak of the season.

There was science here? Where? I must have missed it. None of us know where the season will end up, and there is NO science that backs up seasonal forecasts based on conditions so far. We've had seasons like this years that ended up dead, and we've had seasons that ended up above average. I have failed so many times, at this point in a season, to predict the outcome I don't even try anymore, and I smile when I see other posters attempting to do so. Good luck with that. I predicted a normal season, I still think that's the most likely outcome.

[captainbarbossa19]

Is this a place to only talk after the season is done when it is a quiet season? The evidence is that SO FAR the Atlantic has been very quiet. That could soon change. People calling out people for calling for a quiet season or hinting at it being a possibility seems to be counter productive. Would I call out someone who thinks the season is going to be extremely active when we have had 6/4/2 by the end of August? Nope. Then why call out people for questioning a season that has so far under performed? Time will always tell in these cases. My science to back things up SO FAR is that the season has been much quieter than usual going into the peak of the season.

There was science here? Where? I must have missed it. None of us know where the season will end up, and there is NO science that backs up seasonal forecasts based on conditions so far. We've had seasons like this years that ended up dead, and we've had seasons that ended up above average. I have failed so many times, at this point in a season, to predict the outcome I don't even try anymore, and I smile when I see other posters attempting to do so. Good luck with that. I predicted a normal season, I still think that's the most likely outcome.

https://i.imgur.com/O0EwO1k.png

According to the graph, we have a long voyage until the season is over. It looks like August 24 normally has between 3-4 named storms with a total of 11. That means in an average season, we have only seen about 27-36% of all named storms. If this is an average season, we have around 65% still to go since we now have 4 storms.

[Hammy]

I will say that this season has been a tad frustrating so far, with no real indicators as to where it's going to go--if we were having another 2013, for example, it would be a bit less irritating because the signs would be there, and likewise seasons where there was already plenty of activity so far, I had a general idea where they'd turn out. The signals are mixed and I have zero confidence saying one way or another. Models aren't helping either, predicting absolutely nothing (even when development is relatively imminent, as in Dorian's case) or conversely, situations like 96L and increasingly likely 98L, where you have high model support, invest, and 70/90% chance from NHC only for it to not develop in the end.

I don't watch sports but I can imagine how fans must feel when they have seasons similar to this, where it's constantly looking one way and then the next play (or game) things go the other direction.

[Stormi]

I will say that this season has been a tad frustrating so far, with no real indicators as to where it's going to go--if we were having another 2013, for example, it would be a bit less irritating because the signs would be there, and likewise seasons where there was already plenty of activity so far, I had a general idea where they'd turn out. The signals are mixed and I have zero confidence saying one way or another. Models aren't helping either, predicting absolutely nothing (even when development is relatively imminent, as in Dorian's case) or conversely, situations like 96L and increasingly likely 98L, where you have high model support, invest, and 70/90% chance from NHC only for it to not develop in the end.

I don't watch sports but I can imagine how fans must feel when they have seasons similar to this, where it's constantly looking one way and then the next play (or game) things go the other direction.

I couldn't agree more...New to this, but researching trends from years past, it's fascinating. Models getting thrown for loops left, right, & center

[toad strangler]

I will say that this season has been a tad frustrating so far, with no real indicators as to where it's going to go--if we were having another 2013, for example, it would be a bit less irritating because the signs would be there, and likewise seasons where there was already plenty of activity so far, I had a general idea where they'd turn out. The signals are mixed and I have zero confidence saying one way or another. Models aren't helping either, predicting absolutely nothing (even when development is relatively imminent, as in Dorian's case) or conversely, situations like 96L and increasingly likely 98L, where you have high model support, invest, and 70/90% chance from NHC only for it to not develop in the end.

I don't watch sports but I can imagine how fans must feel when they have seasons similar to this, where it's constantly looking one way and then the next play (or game) things go the other direction.

I couldn't agree more...New to this, but researching past year's trends, it's fascinating. Models getting thrown for loops left, right, & center

Models are forecasting tools. Not Crystal Balls.

[Stormi]

I will say that this season has been a tad frustrating so far, with no real indicators as to where it's going to go--if we were having another 2013, for example, it would be a bit less irritating because the signs would be there, and likewise seasons where there was already plenty of activity so far, I had a general idea where they'd turn out. The signals are mixed and I have zero confidence saying one way or another. Models aren't helping either, predicting absolutely nothing (even when development is relatively imminent, as in Dorian's case) or conversely, situations like 96L and increasingly likely 98L, where you have high model support, invest, and 70/90% chance from NHC only for it to not develop in the end.

I don't watch sports but I can imagine how fans must feel when they have seasons similar to this, where it's constantly looking one way and then the next play (or game) things go the other direction.

I couldn't agree more...New to this, but researching past year's trends, it's fascinating. Models getting thrown for loops left, right, & center

Models are forecasting tools. Not Crystal Balls.

You couldn't be more correct - but for a novice studying the tropics, models that both failed, and those that came to fruition during certain years or during certain meteorological patterns can help shed some light on what may happen again. I see your point, more now than ever!