2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[Blown Away]

GEFS still EPAC heavy with the rogue Cat 2/3 into TX.

[skyline385]

0Z EPS with more MDR activity, let's see if this one holds after busting twice this season. GEFS & GEPS however still aren’t showing any MDR activity at all, including on the 35-day long range GEFS. So someone will bust, probably the GEFS at this point simply based on climo.

[jlauderdal]

0Z EPS with more MDR activity, let's see if this one holds after busting twice this season.https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220803/310ed25d9ab21e7cecd5f06d4f0c68ce.jpg

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90% of hurricanes happen after Aug. 1; climatology says this one sticks. My way too loud generator that was purchased after Wilma has been retired, Champion had some great deals last weekend on Amazon, too good to pass up, let's hope I don't need it.

[Blown Away]

00z GEFS... Noticing in the GEFS & long range CFS the BH in the W Atlantic is not to strong and nearly all members that develop recurve. CFS long range has shown most systems moving N of the Caribbean and well E of the CONUS for weeks.

[DorkyMcDorkface]

Last night's CMC run showed signs of life in the long range with a TD in the MDR. Perhaps it's the same thing the EPS likes but it's hard to know for sure.

[Blown Away]

Last night's CMC run showed signs of life in the long range with a TD in the MDR. Perhaps it's the same thing the EPS likes but it's hard to know for sure.
https://i.ibb.co/C5Q8zTx/gem-z850-vort-eatl-fh180-240.gif

Yep, GEM/CMC hinting at something in the long range in the Central Atlantic...

[skyline385]

Last night's CMC run showed signs of life in the long range with a TD in the MDR. Perhaps it's the same thing the EPS likes but it's hard to know for sure.
https://i.ibb.co/C5Q8zTx/gem-z850-vort-eatl-fh180-240.gif

Yep, GEM/CMC hinting at something in the long range in the Central Atlantic...

That low latitude though, it looks like it’s still embedded in the ITCZ.

[Blown Away]

12z ICON... Hinting at a low with a big slug of moisture in the long range...

[crownweather]

12Z GFS now showing signs of life with both a low latitude system in the MDR AND a system right along the US Southeast Coast late next week/next weekend.

[cycloneye]

GFS is waking up.

[cycloneye]

And MDR.

[Teban54]

That Gulf Stream rider on 12z GFS reminds me of Alex 2004, just a bit weaker.

[skyline385]

That MDR system gets showed into the Carribean and starts weakening just from its speed.

[Blown Away]

12z GFS... Finger on switch...

[LarryWx]

The 12Z EPS out to August 13th looks to me to be a good bit more active than the the 0Z EPS with both an MDR wave and a low just off the SE US coast. This suggests there could be two NS within 10 days. Nothing quiet at all about this run.

[Blown Away]

12z EURO has a large TW moving off Africa in @6 days moving fast across Atlantic near NE Caribbean in 10 days...

[skyline385]

12Z EPS increasing in activity

[Blown Away]

Many category 1/2 hurricanes moving towards the Northeast Caribbean

[cycloneye]

18z GEFS ensembles show a few more spread out in the basin and mainly in MDR.

[Blown Away]

06 GFS... Amazing, EPAC just keeps pumping hurricanes out one after another. I count 4 hurricanes and 1 TS this run.