2019 Indicators: SST'S / Sal / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability (See updated graphics at first post)

[MetroMike]

Surprised nobody has mentioned how there is now little shear over the entire Caribbean. Should just be a matter of time before things really get going. That area of the SW Atlantic is another area where we could see some activity.

Got to think we will see some significant Caribbean system(s) this year with no El Niño. My eyes are looking to the south here in Florida this year and not so much to the east especially with the troughiness pattern:

https://i.postimg.cc/WzYNDYg2/wg8sht.gif

It was mentioned earlier but does not seem to matter. Seems all positive indicators for development are not players this year.

[gatorcane]

So much for that quiet August: #98l, 99l, Chantal, ???

Problem is lead time with the upgraded models this year looks quite low so making long-range forecasts is especially tough.

[NDG]

And just like that the Atlantic has waken up!!!! Many of us were giving up on August already, lol.

[zhukm29]

The bell has indeed rung with the arrival of Chantal (and perfectly on August 20 as well). The map of the Atlantic is no longer empty with Chantal, 98L, and 99L...

If 98L and 99L are both named by the end of the month, then we'd be at the same number of named storms as last year. With the sinking cell responsible for a quiet season so far leaving in September, the rest of the season definitely looks interesting.

[captainbarbossa19]

And just like that the Atlantic has waken up!!!! Many of us were giving up on August already, lol.

After years of watching S2K forums throughout the season, I think that many on this board go through a sequence of changing opinions. While this is not true every season, many seasons often follow this timeline.

1. June 1st: Everyone is excited about the upcoming season. Many are anticipating upcoming action later in the month, but most know that the real action will most likely start in August.
2. July 1st: One or two TCs manage to form in June. Many complain about how weak and disorganized the cyclones are.
3. July 15th: Lots of SAL is present in the Atlantic basin. However, most people are not surprised by this, as they were expecting it.
4. August 1st: Atlantic is still slow. Dry, stable air is present in the tropics. However, models are beginning to suggest things will be changing within a few weeks.
5. August 15th: Models show nothing in the near-future. Many are becoming skeptical about the season amounting to anything significant.
6. August 23rd: There are multiple invests in the Atlantic and conditions are rapidly beginning to change. The models begin to show cyclogenesis. Many quickly change their minds about a quieter season.
7. August 31st: There is now at least one active TC. There is a potential that at least one TC could become a hurricane. Many people appear shocked by the increased activity.
8. September 30th: Several TCs have already formed and dissipated. A few who suggested that the season would be quiet now state that they always knew the Atlantic would spring to life.
9. November 30th: The last storm probably has dissipated by this point. Many look back at the season and state that they are surprised with the outcome.

[toad strangler]

And just like that the Atlantic has waken up!!!! Many of us were giving up on August already, lol.

After years of watching S2K forums throughout the season, I think that many on this board go through a sequence of changing opinions. While this is not true every season, many seasons often follow this timeline.

1. June 1st: Everyone is excited about the upcoming season. Many are anticipating upcoming action later in the month, but most know that the real action will most likely start in August.
2. July 1st: One or two TCs manage to form in June. Many complain about how weak and disorganized the cyclones are.
3. July 15th: Lots of SAL is present in the Atlantic basin. However, most people are not surprised by this, as they were expecting it.
4. August 1st: Atlantic is still slow. Dry, stable air is present in the tropics. However, models are beginning to suggest things will be changing within a few weeks.
5. August 15th: Models show nothing in the near-future. Many are becoming skeptical about the season amounting to anything significant.
6. August 23rd: There are multiple invests in the Atlantic and conditions are rapidly beginning to change. The models begin to show cyclogenesis. Many quickly change their minds about a quieter season.
7. August 31st: There is now at least one active TC. There is a potential that at least one TC could become a hurricane. Many people appear shocked by the increased activity.
8. September 30th: Several TCs have already formed and dissipated. A few who suggested that the season would be quiet now state that they always knew the Atlantic would spring to life.
9. November 30th: The last storm probably has dissipated by this point. Many look back at the season and state that they are surprised with the outcome

#5 is so true and the most annoying. Those people know who they are.

[CyclonicFury]

After all the talk of August possibly having no named storms, we will likely finish with two or three. The tropics can turn on in an instant in late August. I suspect we'll be tracking several systems between now and the end of October.

[BYG Jacob]

And just like that the Atlantic has waken up!!!! Many of us were giving up on August already, lol.

Tune in next year for more of the same!

[Hammy]

Given the increase in activity earlier than expected, averaging the recent CFS runs (with last night's run likely responding to the more favorable conditions) and my still expecting late September through the end of October to be the peak, the rest of the season should certainly be interesting to say the least.

[Steve]

And just like that the Atlantic has waken up!!!! Many of us were giving up on August already, lol.

Tune in next year for more of the same!

lol. It's kind of unfortunate that you usually see the same posters every year doing the same thing. Some of them are good posters too but have no patience and feel like they have to say something.

[Kingarabian]

And just like that the Atlantic has waken up!!!! Many of us were giving up on August already, lol.

For those that went with 14/15 named storms and average/above average ACE, the current model runs are still not that encouraging. Because 98L looks like it will only have about 36-48 hours as a low end hurricane before becoming Extra-Tropical, and models have 99L peaking as a high end TS before weakening. Maybe these are just appetizers for what's to come in September.

[DioBrando]

And just like that the Atlantic has waken up!!!! Many of us were giving up on August already, lol.

For those that went with 14/15 named storms and average/above average ACE, the current model runs are still not that encouraging. Because 98L looks like it will only have about 36-48 hours as a low end hurricane before becoming Extra-Tropical, and models have 99L peaking as a high end TS before weakening. Maybe these are just appetizers for what's to come in September.

Things aren't looking too good for the EPAC either, with all that wind shear too

[Kingarabian]

And just like that the Atlantic has waken up!!!! Many of us were giving up on August already, lol.

For those that went with 14/15 named storms and average/above average ACE, the current model runs are still not that encouraging. Because 98L looks like it will only have about 36-48 hours as a low end hurricane before becoming Extra-Tropical, and models have 99L peaking as a high end TS before weakening. Maybe these are just appetizers for what's to come in September.

Things aren't looking too good for the EPAC either, with all that wind shear too
[url]http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/eastpac/winds/wg9shr.GIF[/rl]

Yup its a graveyard as well.

[DioBrando]

Shear low for September and October for the Atlantic, with favorable upper-levels and temperatures. The gates have opened.

[NotSparta]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/cfs-mon/2019082300/cfs-mon_01_ashear_atl_1.png
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/cfs-mon/2019082300/cfs-mon_01_ashear_atl_2.png
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/cfs-mon/2019082300/cfs-mon_01_ssta_atl_1.png
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/cfs-mon/2019082300/cfs-mon_01_u200a_atl_1.png
Shear low for September and October for the Atlantic, with favorable upper-levels and temperatures.

Shear was never the problem

[DioBrando]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/cfs-mon/2019082300/cfs-mon_01_ashear_atl_1.png
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/cfs-mon/2019082300/cfs-mon_01_ashear_atl_2.png
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/cfs-mon/2019082300/cfs-mon_01_ssta_atl_1.png
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/cfs-mon/2019082300/cfs-mon_01_u200a_atl_1.png
Shear low for September and October for the Atlantic, with favorable upper-levels and temperatures.

Shear was never the problem

It was the now weakening sinking cell. I mean... 2019 does look to be a globally down year but I'm still sticking with the Atlantic being the dominant basin for the NHEM.

[captainbarbossa19]

Looks like some rather warm SSTs out there. If something were to find favorable conditions, there is plenty of energy out there (especially in the Gulf and near Florida).

[DioBrando]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/cdas-sflux_sst_watl_1.png

Looks like some rather warm SSTs out there. If something were to find favorable conditions, there is plenty of energy out there (especially in the Gulf and near Florida).

That shear feature over the Caribbean would be gone next week according to the CFS models too.

[AnnularCane]

5. August 15th: Models show nothing in the near-future. Many are becoming skeptical about the season amounting to anything significant.

This seems to be about the time when even the experts start cancelling the season. Then they completely change their tune within a week or two.

[Monsoonjr99]

It's almost as if Avila jinxed the Atlantic in his tweet, as the bell has indeed rung on August 20. Looks like season cancel season is over.

Through July I had held on to my preseason numbers of 16-9-4, as ENSO was indeed cooling as I expected and I knew activity normally doesn't pick up that much in the early season. But as August dragged on without much activity and the updated models didn't show squat, even I (a bit bullish lol) started lowering my numbers (also considering the past couple active seasons after this point on the calendar). A few days ago I had even brought it down to a near-average 12-6-3 in my post in the September numbers thread, mainly considering past seasons' numbers after that date but still expecting an uptick in activity mainly later in the season. Now with the lid seeming to come off now rather than sometime in September, I think I may have jumped the gun a bit especially with H and M numbers. Since 2019 is now at 3-1-0, 2018 had 10 NSs after this date (2017 had 9), and perhaps favorable conditions in October could still make this year a bit backloaded like 2001 (more late activity than the past two years?), I'd go with 14 NSs in 2019 (11 after this date). ENSO is cool and WAM remains strong, but the MDR isn't as warm as say 2017 (still warmer than 2018), so I'd go between the past two years after this date for Hs and Ms. 2017 had 8 Hs and 2018 had 6 after August 23, so I'd go with 7 more after Barry. All majors of both the past two years happened after today (Harvey about to blow up) following the expected climo, so I'd split the difference and say 4 majors in 2019 (makes sense given SSTs).

14-8-4 sounds about right for this year as somewhat above average, though perhaps slightly higher if 2019 pulls a 2001. Maybe the ratio could be strong this year.