hurricanetrack wrote:So how many of you think there is "considerable uncertainty" for the time period after May, 2007? To put it another way, now that we are LEAVING an El Nino, what are the odds that El Nino conditions would return by July or August? I think it is interesting that we were in a La Nina this time last year and we went right in to a healthy El Nino in just a few months. Now, we are leaving El Nino, quite rapidly, and heading towards neutral conditions. Has there ever been a case when we left El Nino and then went right back to El Nino within the same calendar year? If not, then one could reasonably assume there is almost no chance of an El Nino being in place during THIS hurricane season.
I just wonder what the considerable uncertainty is all about.....
Yeah, I think a Nina's in the works for later this year. However, there has been a case where a strong Nino has weakened to neutral, and then rose back to strong Nino, all within one year. Not the same calender year but within one year.
92-93
Data starts from Dec-Jan 1992, ends at Nov-Dec 1993, left to right and then down.
MEI data. >0.5 is weak Nino, >1 is mdt, >1.5 is strong
1.714 1.849 2.004 2.248 2.107 1.798 1.025 0.605 0.485 0.591 0.518 0.619
0.638 0.926 0.954 1.377 1.98 1.57 1.136 1.064 1.022 1.051 0.835 0.601