T.S Florence,Analysis,Sat Pics,Models Thread #3

#102 Postby **Noah** » Mon Sep 04, 2006 8:02 pm

Noah wrote::oops: Im so very confused with all these systems.

Which one should florida be watching? I guess that narrows it down for me.

Can anyone enlighten me??

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #103 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Mon Sep 04, 2006 8:04 pm

This one florida should be watching...The nhc is taking it westward or west-northwestward. In if theres enough ridging it could make it there. One trough could change that.

#104 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Mon Sep 04, 2006 8:05 pm

WXMAN are you talking about this general area here. I want to see if I'm looking in the right place.

Sanibel · #105 Postby **Sanibel** » Mon Sep 04, 2006 8:07 pm

Confusing system The LLC appears to be out ahead of the thick convection to its ENE.

Is the center that rapidly turning area circled above? It must be. If it is, the track is mostly west. (Slot ridge)

Trugunzn · #106 Postby **Trugunzn** » Mon Sep 04, 2006 8:07 pm

My first early guess right now Is Carolina landfall.

#107 Postby **Noah** » Mon Sep 04, 2006 8:08 pm

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:This one florida should be watching...The nhc is taking it westward or west-northwestward. In if theres enough ridging it could make it there. One trough could change that.

Ok Thank you matt.. so many systems out there, I am now just watching the amount of members online again to let me know something is brewing.

beachbum_al · #108 Postby **beachbum_al** » Mon Sep 04, 2006 8:09 pm

Tropical Depression Six reorganizing
Posted by: JeffMasters, 8:58 PM EDT on September 04, 2006
Tropical Depression Six is having trouble making up its mind where its center should be. The center it organized around is getting competition from another center of circulation about 400 miles to the southwest, as seen in the latest QuikSCAT image posted at 8:30pm EDT tonight (Figure 1). The large area of thunderstorms about 400 miles southwest of TD 6, formerly designated "Invest 98L", is still there, and is causing major difficulties for TD 6, which can't make up its mind which center to consolidate around. Until the depression resolves this conflict, you can throw all the model runs out the window--they will not be able to resolve the double circulation centers. TD 6 may well decide to organize around the old Invest 98L center to the southwest, which would pull the forecast tracks further south towards the Lesser Antilles Islands. Another wind card is the presence of the new tropical wave to the east of TD 6, near the Cape Verde Islands. This wave is close enough to TD 6 that it may be stealing some energy from the depression and inhibiting its intensification. Again, the models will not be able to deal with this interaction with another circulation nearby.

Despite this conflict, TD 6 has grown stronger since this morning--there are many more red 40 mph wind vectors visible in the evening QuikSCAT pass (Figure 1) compared to the morning pass (Figure 2). It will be interesting to see if NHC upgrades the system to Tropical Storm Florence at 11pm, or decides to wait to see which center TD 6 forms around.

I just read this from Jeff Masters blog on wunderground.com. Interesting.

#109 Postby **windycity** » Mon Sep 04, 2006 8:10 pm

Its dying, wait, its alive! At 11 it should be downgraded,no, upgraded!! Just our luck, another bipolar tropical system!!! Please pro mets, we really need you during these confusing times!!! :hmm:

:

ROCK · #110 Postby **ROCK** » Mon Sep 04, 2006 8:13 pm

Sanibel wrote:Confusing system The LLC appears to be out ahead of the thick convection to its ENE.

Is the center that rapidly turning area circled above? It must be. If it is, the track is mostly west. (Slot ridge)

TD6's LLC is supposely in that area you circled, right on the edge of that new convection but it has to be noticed that the low to the SW at around 13N 47W is still around and firing convection also tonight....

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #111 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Mon Sep 04, 2006 8:13 pm

The LLC is centered near where Southfloridawx circled it. The buoy to the south has a west wind. See the convection is firing from northeast to southwest over the last few hours. In about ready to fire over the LLC. Once doing so then the system should start organizing.

Nimbus · #112 Postby **Nimbus** » Mon Sep 04, 2006 8:14 pm

Sanibel:

Night time IR can be deceivign but those low level clouds racing in around the northwestern quadrant sure look like they mark the center. I agree there must be some westerly steering at he lower levels.

BensonTCwatcher · #113 Postby **BensonTCwatcher** » Mon Sep 04, 2006 8:15 pm

I think we will be looking at this system exploiting another weakness in the ridge late next week. I had hoped earlier today that the relative speeds of the features (including TD6) woudl stay as forecast. The thing is now the weakness forecast may actually pull the system north and be blocked by a high pressure dropping in over the upper midwest late in the runs. This would be due the lack of development and increase in fwd speed rather than as the globals had this earlier.

I think the FL folks and the NC folks will get thier money's worth out of this system either way. Still way too early to look at intensities and landfall areas

Weatherfreak14 · #114 Postby **Weatherfreak14** » Mon Sep 04, 2006 8:16 pm

Trugunzn wrote:My first early guess right now Is Carolina landfall.

Well for right now lets say Flordia all the way to bermuda should keep a strained eye on this.

Trugunzn · #115 Postby **Trugunzn** » Mon Sep 04, 2006 8:16 pm

good discussion about TD6 from Dr jeff masters

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/show.html

Zardoz · #116 Postby **Zardoz** » Mon Sep 04, 2006 8:18 pm

Okay, it looks like old Ex98L really is truly dead this time:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-avn.html

HurricaneMaster_PR · #117 Postby **HurricaneMaster_PR** » Mon Sep 04, 2006 8:18 pm

wxman57...What are the chances for TD 6 organizing around X98L circulation as Jeff Masters said could occur...That will put us in the islands under risk...

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #118 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Mon Sep 04, 2006 8:19 pm

Yes there is westly steering with a high to its north forming at 850 millibars...But as you go up to 500 theres a weakness between highs/trough. At 45 west-30 north...So the high is starting to build to its north.

Derek Ortt · #119 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Mon Sep 04, 2006 8:19 pm

if thats the primary surface center at 45W

Models went with 44.3, which was my starting point as well, near the new convection, agreeing with the SSM/I S

#120 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Sep 04, 2006 8:22 pm

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41041

wxman57,here is a true surface observation,this from a bouy around 14.6n 46.0w.What does those wind directions there tell you about where the LLC is?

T.S Florence,Analysis,Sat Pics,Models Thread #3

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