T.D. Six - Sat Pics, Comments,Models Thread #2

[miamicanes177]

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX (AL062006) ON 20060904 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060904 0000 060904 1200 060905 0000 060905 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 14.6N 39.9W 16.5N 41.6W 18.1N 43.2W 19.7N 44.8W
BAMM 14.6N 39.9W 16.4N 42.0W 18.1N 44.1W 19.7N 46.3W
A98E 14.6N 39.9W 15.8N 41.6W 17.1N 43.4W 18.6N 45.0W
LBAR 14.6N 39.9W 16.4N 41.6W 18.3N 43.2W 20.0N 44.9W
SHIP 30KTS 39KTS 48KTS 54KTS
DSHP 30KTS 39KTS 48KTS 54KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060906 0000 060907 0000 060908 0000 060909 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 21.3N 46.1W 23.4N 49.2W 24.4N 54.4W 26.3N 60.0W
BAMM 20.7N 48.2W 21.9N 53.0W 22.7N 58.8W 22.9N 64.3W
A98E 20.2N 46.9W 23.2N 51.6W 25.5N 57.2W 28.2N 62.5W
LBAR 21.7N 46.4W 24.7N 49.7W 27.2N 54.8W 29.5N 59.4W
SHIP 61KTS 69KTS 72KTS 75KTS
DSHP 61KTS 69KTS 72KTS 75KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 14.6N LONCUR = 39.9W DIRCUR = 310DEG SPDCUR = 10KT
LATM12 = 13.5N LONM12 = 38.6W DIRM12 = 312DEG SPDM12 = 10KT
LATM24 = 12.1N LONM24 = 36.9W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 75NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1005MB OUTPRS = 1009MB OUTRAD = 175NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[Grease Monkey]

At this point, it's more like choose your fairy tale.

[Trugunzn]

Im worried that THE GFDL is trying to show a cat 4/5 heading west then turns North and speeds up real fast towards Long island and the rest of the NoRTHEAST.

[Rainband]

Im worried that THE GFDL is trying to show a cat 4/5 heading west then turns North and speeds up real fast towards Long island and the rest of the NoRTHEAST.

You have been watching the History Channel I take it.

[Trugunzn]

Im worried that THE GFDL is trying to show a cat 4/5 heading west then turns North and speeds up real fast towards Long island and the rest of the NoRTHEAST.

You have been watching the History Channel I take it.

To tell u the truth i have never watched the History channel. I have over 1000 channels and never bothered looking for history channel

[Bgator]

The GFDL takes it west, and doesnt go any farther...it doesnt go north at any point during it. it only goes out 5 days.. GFS takes it north....But a cat 5 cant really survive in cold wters up north..

[Trugunzn]

The GFDL takes it west, and doesnt go any farther...it doesnt go north at any point during it. it only goes out 5 days.. GFS takes it north....But a cat 5 cant really survive in cold wters up north..

but notice that the High Pressure weakens at that last frame and moves eastward slowly

[Bgator]

Yes, i see that, but for now its 10 days out, and andrew was supposed to go into a weakness, which it didnt, not saying its gonna be an andrew, 10 days out is just to uncertain, though the 00z models did shift north i think...

[cycloneye]

00:00z Graphic.Refresh it to get the very latest tracks.

[Grease Monkey]

Are the models shifting further north?

[Bgator]

No, and though some models shifted north, they are the dont really pay attention to models, like the LBAR, and a98E, Bam's...The GFDL, and globals count more..

[El Nino]

GFDL is very close to the NHC, but last one brings it only on a cat1 cane

[wxman57]

Since we cannot rely on model data this far out from the east U.S. Coast, let's look at climo. I plotted all named storms in August/September that passed within 65 nautical miles of where TD 6 is located this evening. Only 4 storms since 1851 reached the east U.S. Coast, two in the late 1800s, one in the early 1900s, and Fran in 1996. Most named storms that passed near where TD 6 is turned northward between 55W-75W. I suspect that's what TD 6 / Florence will do. But there's a slight chance it could be blocked twice and shoved west to the east U.S. Coast. It's just a matter of timing.

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/climo1.gif

Zoomed-in version:
http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/climo2.gif

[BUD]

I smell a Floyd.

[O Town]

Since we cannot rely on model data this far out from the east U.S. Coast, let's look at climo. I plotted all named storms in August/September that passed within 65 nautical miles of where TD 6 is located this evening. Only 4 storms since 1851 reached the east U.S. Coast, two in the late 1800s, one in the early 1900s, and Fran in 1996. Most named storms that passed near where TD 6 is turned northward between 55W-75W. I suspect that's what TD 6 / Florence will do. But there's a slight chance it could be blocked twice and shoved west to the east U.S. Coast. It's just a matter of timing.

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/climo1.gif

Zoomed-in version:
http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/climo2.gif

Intresting. And the 2 that hit FL came in at almost the exact same spot.

[Emmett_Brown]

Ok... this is starting to look very complex and unclear to me. X 98L seems to be coming back to life... perhaps due to the fact that TD 6 is moving almost N/NW, while X98L is moving W... the increased distance between the 2 allowing X98L to re-fire. Meanwhile, a new disturbance is closing in from the East... closing in on TD 6. The trough seems to be pulling TD 6 N for the time being, and slowing it's overall motion. This is a complex setup... I could see 98L breaking free heading W, while TD 6 and the new disturbance to the east interact.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/avn-l.jpg

[Grease Monkey]

Ok... this is starting to look very complex and unclear to me. X 98L seems to be coming back to life... perhaps due to the fact that TD 6 is moving almost N/NW, while X98L is moving W... the increased distance between the 2 allowing X98L to re-fire. Meanwhile, a new disturbance is closing in from the East... closing in on TD 6. The trough seems to be pulling TD 6 N for the time being, and slowing it's overall motion. This is a complex setup... I could see 98L breaking free heading W, while TD 6 and the new disturbance to the east interact.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/avn-l.jpg

Great scotts!!!. Doc this is getting heavy. I guess anything is possible.

[BensonTCwatcher]

Ham sandwich...lol

I am just getting caught up here. TD has a familiar location and setup, but right now my money would be on climo...which is no east coast lanfall "F" storm. The likelyhood is low of a Fran track. Most storms recurve, but I had better start paying attention I suppose.

We lived on Topsail Island until Fran.....We got smart and moved inland. Fran, Floyd, Hazel and Hugo....Keep them F's and H's out of here.

[Trugunzn]

[wxman57]

Ham sandwich...lol

I am just getting caught up here. TD has a familiar location and setup, but right now my money would be on climo...which is no east coast lanfall "F" storm. The likelyhood is low of a Fran track. Most storms recurve, but I had better start paying attention I suppose.

We lived on Topsail Island until Fran.....We got smart and moved inland. Fran, Floyd, Hazel and Hugo....Keep them F's and H's out of here.

People are probably wondering what you're talking about, as I deleted my post that replied to the "Smells like Floyd" post with a "that's my ham sandwich" post. Trying to keep this from being a chat forum.