Central Atlantic Wave,Midway Between Africa and L Antilles

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Thunder44
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#101 Postby Thunder44 » Tue Aug 29, 2006 4:15 am

Tropical Weather Outlook

Statement as of 5:30 am EDT on August 29, 2006


For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico...
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Ernesto...located about 20 miles north of Camaguey Cuba.

A westward-moving tropical wave located about 625 miles southwest of
the Cape Verde Islands is producing a concentrated area of showers
and thunderstorms. This system is showing signs of organization
...And some additional development is possible during the next
couple of days.

Elsewhere...tropical storm formation is not expected through
Wednesday.
$$
Forecaster Stewart
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HurricaneMaster_PR
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#102 Postby HurricaneMaster_PR » Tue Aug 29, 2006 6:27 am

TAFB showing possible area of low pressure moving to the west in the next 48 hours...

48 hours
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atl48_latestBW.gif

72 hours
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atl72_latestBW.gif
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#103 Postby cycloneye » Tue Aug 29, 2006 7:07 am

A LOW AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 27W/28W S OF 15N...MOVING
W NEAR 15 KT. THIS WAVE IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE AS IT IS
SUPERIMPOSED ON THE MONSOON TROUGH. HOWEVER...BROAD CYCLONIC
CURVATURE IS EVIDENT IN NEARBY SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND LOW TO
MID CLOUD MOTIONS ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. A NEW BURST OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED FROM 11N-13N
BETWEEN 25W-29W. A SMALLER CLUSTER IS NOTED NEAR 8N28W.


8 AM Discussion.
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#104 Postby cycloneye » Tue Aug 29, 2006 7:42 am

Image

Folks,dont be fooled as you see that convection at 35w because is not the area we have to watch.The area of interest is in the wave axis around 28w where you see convection at the extreme right part of the pic.
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Scorpion

#105 Postby Scorpion » Tue Aug 29, 2006 7:46 am

Sure looks pretty though.
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#106 Postby Bane » Tue Aug 29, 2006 7:51 am

isn't this the one the gfs has been developing and taking towards the east coast ?
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#107 Postby SouthFloridawx » Tue Aug 29, 2006 8:19 am

Looks like we'll have our next invest if this continues through tomorrow.
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cycloneye
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#108 Postby cycloneye » Tue Aug 29, 2006 8:25 am

Bane wrote:isn't this the one the gfs has been developing and taking towards the east coast ?


Yes,look at the 6z run loop.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml
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#109 Postby skufful » Tue Aug 29, 2006 8:30 am

cycloneye wrote:
Bane wrote:isn't this the one the gfs has been developing and taking towards the east coast ?


Yes,look at the 6z run loop.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml


The last couple of frames are kind of nutty - strange leaps.
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#110 Postby Thunder44 » Tue Aug 29, 2006 8:30 am

Nice close-up visible thanks to google:

Image
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O Town
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#111 Postby O Town » Tue Aug 29, 2006 8:33 am

cycloneye wrote:Folks,dont be fooled as you see that convection at 35w because is not the area we have to watch.The area of interest is in the wave axis around 28w where you see convection at the extreme right part of the pic.

So are you saying its the blob I circled and NOT the wave in front? Because the wave in front doesn't look so bad either.
Image
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#112 Postby cycloneye » Tue Aug 29, 2006 8:33 am

Thunder44 wrote:Nice close-up visible thanks to google:

Image


Again to clarify to the members about where is the area of interest.In this pic what you see at the left is ITCZ,monsoon related convection,What you see at the right getting out of the black area is the area to watch as it's in the wave axis. Thanks Thunder44 for posting the google pic. :)
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#113 Postby cycloneye » Tue Aug 29, 2006 8:35 am

The circuled one is it O Town. :)
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#114 Postby O Town » Tue Aug 29, 2006 8:36 am

Thanks Luis.
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#115 Postby Thunder44 » Tue Aug 29, 2006 8:36 am

Infrared image:

Image
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#116 Postby cycloneye » Tue Aug 29, 2006 8:38 am

Again,thanks Thunder44 for those google pics.Great closeup of the area of interest.
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#117 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Aug 29, 2006 8:47 am

Image

http://i40.photobucket.com/albums/e244/zdtadmin/TDA.jpg
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#118 Postby cjrciadt » Tue Aug 29, 2006 8:48 am

^One of your more interesting creations yet Hurakan :D
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Scorpion

#119 Postby Scorpion » Tue Aug 29, 2006 8:50 am

Perhaps the lead convection will help moisten up the air a bit.
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#120 Postby cinlfla » Tue Aug 29, 2006 8:51 am

Do you guys think this will be an invest today?
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