ABNT20 KNHC 241515
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT SAT JUN 24 2006
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED JUST NORTHEAST OF GREAT
ABACO ISLAND IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED
SHOWER ACTIVITY ARE POORLY ORGANIZED AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...THIS
SYSTEM STILL HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL
DEPRESSION WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 10 MPH. THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT SCHEDULED FOR TODAY HAS BEEN CANCELED. ANOTHER
AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM ON SUNDAY...IF
NECESSARY.
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A NON-TROPICAL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT
900 MILES EAST OF BERMUDA. SOME ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ABOUT 10 MPH.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
SUNDAY.
$$
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000
AXNT20 KNHC 241758
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SAT JUN 24 2006
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A 1012 MB BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED NEAR 27N77W OR
JUST NORTHEAST OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
AND EAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED
SHOWER ACTIVITY ARE POORLY ORGANIZED AT THIS TIME. THIS SYSTEM
STILL HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL
DEPRESSION WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT DRIFTS TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 10 MPH.
A 1021 MB AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED NEAR 34N49W OR ABOUT
900 MILES EAST OF BERMUDA. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT
SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS
FEATURE...COVERING FROM 32N-36N BETWEEN 47W-52W. SOME ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO
AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ABOUT 10 MPH.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 31W SOUTH OF 13N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15
KT. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS CAN BE ATTRIBUTED TO JUST THIS
WAVE. MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS RELATED TO THE ITCZ.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 69W/70W SOUTH OF 20N MOVING WEST 10 TO
15 KT. MOISTURE JUST BEHIND THE WAVE IS GENERATING CLUSTERS OF
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE
EASTERN PORTION OF DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND
GUSTY WINDS WILL OCCUR OVER PARTS OF THAT ISLANDS THIS AFTERNOON.
THE WAVE IS ALSO PROBABLY ENHANCING THE SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY
OVER WESTERN VENEZUELA...INCLUDING LAKE MARACAIBO. MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROPICAL WAVE WILL REACH EASTERN CUBA AND
JAMAICA ON SUNDAY.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA ALONG 89W/90W
SOUTH OF 20N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS CONTINUE TO AFFECT BELIZE AND THE GULF OF HONDURAS.
...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N15W 7N30W 7N33W 6N45W 6N53W.
CLUSTERS OF MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN
AROUND 100 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS EAST OF 24W. SCATTERED
MODERATE SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS ARE FOUND FROM 3N TO 10N BETWEEN
34W-42W.
...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A HIGH LOCATED OVER NORTHERN MEXICO
ACROSS TEXAS...THE N GULF COAST AND THE SE PORTION OF U.S. THE
BROAD UPPER HIGH OVER THE CARIBBEAN STILL DOMINATES SOUTH
MEXICO...THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. MIDDLE
TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS OVER THE GULF EAST OF 86W. UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE FROM THE UPPER LOW LOCATED IN THE BAHAMAS IS SPREADING
ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. AT THE SURFACE...WEAK RIDGE
DOMINATES THE N GULF. AS OF 1500 UTC...A 1018 MB SURFACE HIGH IS
NEAR 27N93W. MAINLY LIGHT WINDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OVER
THE ENTIRE GULF.
THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN ENHANCING
THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER PARTS OF PUERTO RICO AND DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC. A CLUSTER OF MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED
OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 10N-12N BETWEEN 80N-82W. OTHER
SHOWERS ARE OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS. BROAD UPPER RIDGE IS
ANCHORED OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN NEAR 12.5N83W AND COVERS
CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE WEST/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WHILE AN UPPER
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LOW OVER THE BAHAMAS ACROSS HISPANIOLA
AND THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. UPPER DRY AIR IS SEEN OVER CUBA WHILE
ABUNDANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE COVERS MOST OF THE BASIN...
INCLUDING PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA. MODERATE TO STRONG TRADE
WINDS ARE JUST OFF THE VENEZUELA/COLOMBIA COAST WITH MODERATE
TRADES OF 10-15 KT OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. THE
ATLANTIC HIGH PRES IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN MON THROUGH WED
INCREASING THE WINDS TO 20-25 KT...MAINLY SOUTH OF 15N.
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS OVER THE NORTHERN
BAHAMAS AND THE STATE OF FLORIDA CONTINUES IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES FOR DETAILS. A
LARGE AREA OF BROKEN CLOUDS WITH SHOWERS AND TSTMS IS FROM
20N-26N BETWEEN 50W-70W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS ACTIVITY AND SEVERAL COMPUTER MODELS DEVELOP AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE IN THIS ZONE. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN IS
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A 1037 MB HIGH LOCATED WELL N OF THE
REGION. TYPICAL STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS COVERS THE ATLANTIC EAST OF
45W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...MIDDLE/UPPER LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL
BAHAMAS NEAR 25N76W WITH ONE TROUGH OVER HISPANIOLA AND THE E
CARIBBEAN SEA AND ANOTHER ONE EXTENDING WWD ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA
AND THE SE GULF. UPPER RIDGE AXIS IS IN BETWEEN THIS LOW AND THE
LARGE UPPER LOW THAT HAS BEEN LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC
DURING THE LAST FEW DAYS. SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THIS UPPER FEATURE THIS MORNING. THE UPPER LOW
CENTER IS NEAR 33N50W. AN UPPER RIDGE ALONG 28W COVERS THE
REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN ATLC.
$$
GR
AXNT20 KNHC 241758
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SAT JUN 24 2006
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A 1012 MB BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED NEAR 27N77W OR
JUST NORTHEAST OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
AND EAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED
SHOWER ACTIVITY ARE POORLY ORGANIZED AT THIS TIME. THIS SYSTEM
STILL HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL
DEPRESSION WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT DRIFTS TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 10 MPH.
A 1021 MB AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED NEAR 34N49W OR ABOUT
900 MILES EAST OF BERMUDA. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT
SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS
FEATURE...COVERING FROM 32N-36N BETWEEN 47W-52W. SOME ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO
AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ABOUT 10 MPH.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 31W SOUTH OF 13N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15
KT. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS CAN BE ATTRIBUTED TO JUST THIS
WAVE. MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS RELATED TO THE ITCZ.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 69W/70W SOUTH OF 20N MOVING WEST 10 TO
15 KT. MOISTURE JUST BEHIND THE WAVE IS GENERATING CLUSTERS OF
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE
EASTERN PORTION OF DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND
GUSTY WINDS WILL OCCUR OVER PARTS OF THAT ISLANDS THIS AFTERNOON.
THE WAVE IS ALSO PROBABLY ENHANCING THE SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY
OVER WESTERN VENEZUELA...INCLUDING LAKE MARACAIBO. MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROPICAL WAVE WILL REACH EASTERN CUBA AND
JAMAICA ON SUNDAY.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA ALONG 89W/90W
SOUTH OF 20N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS CONTINUE TO AFFECT BELIZE AND THE GULF OF HONDURAS.
...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N15W 7N30W 7N33W 6N45W 6N53W.
CLUSTERS OF MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN
AROUND 100 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS EAST OF 24W. SCATTERED
MODERATE SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS ARE FOUND FROM 3N TO 10N BETWEEN
34W-42W.
...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A HIGH LOCATED OVER NORTHERN MEXICO
ACROSS TEXAS...THE N GULF COAST AND THE SE PORTION OF U.S. THE
BROAD UPPER HIGH OVER THE CARIBBEAN STILL DOMINATES SOUTH
MEXICO...THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. MIDDLE
TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS OVER THE GULF EAST OF 86W. UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE FROM THE UPPER LOW LOCATED IN THE BAHAMAS IS SPREADING
ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. AT THE SURFACE...WEAK RIDGE
DOMINATES THE N GULF. AS OF 1500 UTC...A 1018 MB SURFACE HIGH IS
NEAR 27N93W. MAINLY LIGHT WINDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OVER
THE ENTIRE GULF.
THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN ENHANCING
THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER PARTS OF PUERTO RICO AND DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC. A CLUSTER OF MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED
OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 10N-12N BETWEEN 80N-82W. OTHER
SHOWERS ARE OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS. BROAD UPPER RIDGE IS
ANCHORED OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN NEAR 12.5N83W AND COVERS
CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE WEST/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WHILE AN UPPER
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LOW OVER THE BAHAMAS ACROSS HISPANIOLA
AND THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. UPPER DRY AIR IS SEEN OVER CUBA WHILE
ABUNDANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE COVERS MOST OF THE BASIN...
INCLUDING PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA. MODERATE TO STRONG TRADE
WINDS ARE JUST OFF THE VENEZUELA/COLOMBIA COAST WITH MODERATE
TRADES OF 10-15 KT OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. THE
ATLANTIC HIGH PRES IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN MON THROUGH WED
INCREASING THE WINDS TO 20-25 KT...MAINLY SOUTH OF 15N.
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS OVER THE NORTHERN
BAHAMAS AND THE STATE OF FLORIDA CONTINUES IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES FOR DETAILS. A
LARGE AREA OF BROKEN CLOUDS WITH SHOWERS AND TSTMS IS FROM
20N-26N BETWEEN 50W-70W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS ACTIVITY AND SEVERAL COMPUTER MODELS DEVELOP AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE IN THIS ZONE. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN IS
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A 1037 MB HIGH LOCATED WELL N OF THE
REGION. TYPICAL STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS COVERS THE ATLANTIC EAST OF
45W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...MIDDLE/UPPER LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL
BAHAMAS NEAR 25N76W WITH ONE TROUGH OVER HISPANIOLA AND THE E
CARIBBEAN SEA AND ANOTHER ONE EXTENDING WWD ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA
AND THE SE GULF. UPPER RIDGE AXIS IS IN BETWEEN THIS LOW AND THE
LARGE UPPER LOW THAT HAS BEEN LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC
DURING THE LAST FEW DAYS. SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THIS UPPER FEATURE THIS MORNING. THE UPPER LOW
CENTER IS NEAR 33N50W. AN UPPER RIDGE ALONG 28W COVERS THE
REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN ATLC.
$$
GR
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 146196
- Age: 69
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
335
ABNT20 KNHC 242113
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT SAT JUN 24 2006
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HAS CONTINUED TO DRIFT TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST AND IS NOW CENTERED ABOUT 275 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
GEORGIA/SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. SHOWER ACTIVITY REMAINS POORLY
ORGANIZED AND THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION AT
THIS TIME. HOWEVER...THIS SYSTEM STILL HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME
A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS
IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES
COAST. AN AIR FORCE PLANE IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM ON
SUNDAY...IF NECESSARY.
A SMALL NON-TROPICAL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 825
MILES EAST OF BERMUDA IS MOVING WESTWARD ABOUT 10 TO 15 MPH.
DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY..WILL BE SLOW TO OCCUR.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
SUNDAY.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
ABNT20 KNHC 242113
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT SAT JUN 24 2006
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HAS CONTINUED TO DRIFT TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST AND IS NOW CENTERED ABOUT 275 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
GEORGIA/SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. SHOWER ACTIVITY REMAINS POORLY
ORGANIZED AND THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION AT
THIS TIME. HOWEVER...THIS SYSTEM STILL HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME
A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS
IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES
COAST. AN AIR FORCE PLANE IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM ON
SUNDAY...IF NECESSARY.
A SMALL NON-TROPICAL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 825
MILES EAST OF BERMUDA IS MOVING WESTWARD ABOUT 10 TO 15 MPH.
DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY..WILL BE SLOW TO OCCUR.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
SUNDAY.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
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dixiebreeze
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 5140
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Tropical weather discussion
NWS TPC/National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 PM EDT Sat Jun 24 2006
Tropical weather discussion for North America...Central
America...the Gulf of Mexico...the Caribbean Sea...northeastern
sections of South America...and the Atlantic Ocean to the
African coast from the Equator to 32n. The following information
is based on satellite imagery...weather observations...radar...
and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.
...Special features...
a 1012 mb broad area of low pressure is centered near 28n77w or
just north of Great Abaco Island in the northwestern Bahamas
and east of the Florida Peninsula. Satellite imagery and
surface observations indicate that the low and its associated
shower activity are poorly organized at this time. This system
still has the potential to become a tropical or subtropical
depression within the next day or so as it drifts toward the
west-northwest at about 10 mph.
A 1022 mb area of low pressure is centered near 34n50w or about
750 miles east of Bermuda. Satellite imagery indicates that
shower activity has increased in association with this
feature...from 33n-35n between 48w-52w. Some additional
development of this system is possible over the next day or so
as it moves west-northwestward about 10 mph.
...Tropical waves...
a tropical wave is along 33w south of 13n moving west 10 to 15
kt. Isolated moderate convection is from 7n-12n between 30w-36w.
A tropical wave is along 71w south of 20n moving west 10 to 15
kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is over
Hispaniola from 16n-21n between 67w-72w. The wave is also
enhancing the shower/tstm activity over western Venezuela...
including Lake Maracaibo. Moisture associated with this tropical
wave will reach eastern Cuba and Jamaica on Sunday.
A tropical wave is inland over Central America along 91w south
of 19n moving west 10 to 15 kt. Scattered showers and tstms
continue to affect Guatemala.
...The ITCZ...
ITCZ axis is centered along 10n15w 8n20w 6n40w 6n53w. Scattered
moderate to strong convection is just inland over W Africa from
13n-16n between 13w-17w. Scattered moderate convection is from
3n-7n between 19w-24w. Isolated moderate convection is from
4n-9n between 38w-43w.
...Discussion...
the Gulf of Mexico...
a 1018 mb high is centered S of Louisiana near 27n93w. Light
anticyclonic winds and fair weather are over most of the Gulf of
Mexico. Prefrontal activity is producing patches of widely
scattered moderate convection inland over Louisiana...
Mississippi...and Alabama from 30n-32n between 85w-95w. A
tropical wave is producing scattered moderate convection inland
over Guatemala and the Yucatan Peninsula. Scattered moderate
convection is over central and S Florida from 25n-29n between
80w-83w due to the 1012 mb low over the Bahamas. In the upper
levels... a tiny cyclonic circulation is over NE Mexico near
23n98w. Cyclonic flow is within 180 nm radius of the center.
Another tiny cyclonic circulation of the same size is off the
coast of Louisiana near 28n88w. Further S... upper level wly
flow is over the S Gulf S of 20n. Strong subsidence is N of 20n
while abundant moisture is S of 20n. Expect... active prefrontal
thunderstorm activity inland over the se United States tonight
and tomorrow. Also expect thunderstorm activity over N Florida
tomorrow from the approaching low over the Bahamas.
The Caribbean Sea...
see tropical wave section above. In addition... patches of
scattered moderate to strong convection is over the SW Caribbean
...Panama...Costa Rica...Nicaragua...and Honduras from 7n-15n
between 79w-88w. Scattered moderate convection is inland over
Cuba from 20n-22n between 74w-80w. In the upper levels... an
anticyclonic circulation is centered over the Central America
near 14n85w. Abundant upper level moisture is being advected
across Central America and the W Caribbean W of 75w. Expect
the tropical waves to continue to enhance convection over the
Caribbean and Central America over the next 24 hours.
The Atlantic Ocean...
see special features and tropical wave sections above. In
addition...a surface trough is N of the Leeward Islands from
30n50w to 26n60w 20n67w. Widely scattered moderate convection
is from 20n-23n between 57w-67w. A strong 1035 mb high is over
the central Atlantic near 44n37w dominating the remainder of the
subtropical Atlantic N of 20n. Visible satellite imagery and
the Saharan air layer from CIMSS are still showing a broad area
of African dust between the Lesser Antilles and the coast of
Africa. In the upper levels... a cyclonic circulation is
centered over the Bahamas near 26n75w. Cyclonic flow is from
20n-32n between 70w-80w. A ridge is further E...N of 20n
between 60w-70w. A large cyclonic circulation is centered near
34n50w. Cyclonic flow is N of 25n between 30w-60w. A ridge is
N of 20n between 20w-30w.
$$
Formosa
NWS TPC/National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 PM EDT Sat Jun 24 2006
Tropical weather discussion for North America...Central
America...the Gulf of Mexico...the Caribbean Sea...northeastern
sections of South America...and the Atlantic Ocean to the
African coast from the Equator to 32n. The following information
is based on satellite imagery...weather observations...radar...
and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.
...Special features...
a 1012 mb broad area of low pressure is centered near 28n77w or
just north of Great Abaco Island in the northwestern Bahamas
and east of the Florida Peninsula. Satellite imagery and
surface observations indicate that the low and its associated
shower activity are poorly organized at this time. This system
still has the potential to become a tropical or subtropical
depression within the next day or so as it drifts toward the
west-northwest at about 10 mph.
A 1022 mb area of low pressure is centered near 34n50w or about
750 miles east of Bermuda. Satellite imagery indicates that
shower activity has increased in association with this
feature...from 33n-35n between 48w-52w. Some additional
development of this system is possible over the next day or so
as it moves west-northwestward about 10 mph.
...Tropical waves...
a tropical wave is along 33w south of 13n moving west 10 to 15
kt. Isolated moderate convection is from 7n-12n between 30w-36w.
A tropical wave is along 71w south of 20n moving west 10 to 15
kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is over
Hispaniola from 16n-21n between 67w-72w. The wave is also
enhancing the shower/tstm activity over western Venezuela...
including Lake Maracaibo. Moisture associated with this tropical
wave will reach eastern Cuba and Jamaica on Sunday.
A tropical wave is inland over Central America along 91w south
of 19n moving west 10 to 15 kt. Scattered showers and tstms
continue to affect Guatemala.
...The ITCZ...
ITCZ axis is centered along 10n15w 8n20w 6n40w 6n53w. Scattered
moderate to strong convection is just inland over W Africa from
13n-16n between 13w-17w. Scattered moderate convection is from
3n-7n between 19w-24w. Isolated moderate convection is from
4n-9n between 38w-43w.
...Discussion...
the Gulf of Mexico...
a 1018 mb high is centered S of Louisiana near 27n93w. Light
anticyclonic winds and fair weather are over most of the Gulf of
Mexico. Prefrontal activity is producing patches of widely
scattered moderate convection inland over Louisiana...
Mississippi...and Alabama from 30n-32n between 85w-95w. A
tropical wave is producing scattered moderate convection inland
over Guatemala and the Yucatan Peninsula. Scattered moderate
convection is over central and S Florida from 25n-29n between
80w-83w due to the 1012 mb low over the Bahamas. In the upper
levels... a tiny cyclonic circulation is over NE Mexico near
23n98w. Cyclonic flow is within 180 nm radius of the center.
Another tiny cyclonic circulation of the same size is off the
coast of Louisiana near 28n88w. Further S... upper level wly
flow is over the S Gulf S of 20n. Strong subsidence is N of 20n
while abundant moisture is S of 20n. Expect... active prefrontal
thunderstorm activity inland over the se United States tonight
and tomorrow. Also expect thunderstorm activity over N Florida
tomorrow from the approaching low over the Bahamas.
The Caribbean Sea...
see tropical wave section above. In addition... patches of
scattered moderate to strong convection is over the SW Caribbean
...Panama...Costa Rica...Nicaragua...and Honduras from 7n-15n
between 79w-88w. Scattered moderate convection is inland over
Cuba from 20n-22n between 74w-80w. In the upper levels... an
anticyclonic circulation is centered over the Central America
near 14n85w. Abundant upper level moisture is being advected
across Central America and the W Caribbean W of 75w. Expect
the tropical waves to continue to enhance convection over the
Caribbean and Central America over the next 24 hours.
The Atlantic Ocean...
see special features and tropical wave sections above. In
addition...a surface trough is N of the Leeward Islands from
30n50w to 26n60w 20n67w. Widely scattered moderate convection
is from 20n-23n between 57w-67w. A strong 1035 mb high is over
the central Atlantic near 44n37w dominating the remainder of the
subtropical Atlantic N of 20n. Visible satellite imagery and
the Saharan air layer from CIMSS are still showing a broad area
of African dust between the Lesser Antilles and the coast of
Africa. In the upper levels... a cyclonic circulation is
centered over the Bahamas near 26n75w. Cyclonic flow is from
20n-32n between 70w-80w. A ridge is further E...N of 20n
between 60w-70w. A large cyclonic circulation is centered near
34n50w. Cyclonic flow is N of 25n between 30w-60w. A ridge is
N of 20n between 20w-30w.
$$
Formosa
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 146196
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- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
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ABNT20 KNHC 250211
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 PM EDT SAT JUN 24 2006
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE JUST EAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
HAS BECOME LESS ORGANIZED AND THE POTENTIAL FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION HAS DIMINISHED. NEVERTHELESS...THIS WEATHER SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED AND...IF NECESSARY...AN AIR FORCE
PLANE WILL INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM ON SUNDAY. CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL LIKELY SPREAD OVER PORTIONS OF
FLORIDA ON SUNDAY.
A SMALL NON-TROPICAL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 775
MILES EAST OF BERMUDA IS MOVING WESTWARD ABOUT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE
ARE NO SIGNS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION AND FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY..WILL BE SLOW TO OCCUR.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
MONDAY.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 PM EDT SAT JUN 24 2006
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE JUST EAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
HAS BECOME LESS ORGANIZED AND THE POTENTIAL FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION HAS DIMINISHED. NEVERTHELESS...THIS WEATHER SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED AND...IF NECESSARY...AN AIR FORCE
PLANE WILL INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM ON SUNDAY. CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL LIKELY SPREAD OVER PORTIONS OF
FLORIDA ON SUNDAY.
A SMALL NON-TROPICAL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 775
MILES EAST OF BERMUDA IS MOVING WESTWARD ABOUT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE
ARE NO SIGNS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION AND FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY..WILL BE SLOW TO OCCUR.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
MONDAY.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
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and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
687
AXNT20 KNHC 250605
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SUN JUN 25 2006
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 28N78W...FORECAST TO MOVE
OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER AS ITS SUPPORT IS NEAR 26N76W. MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IN THE WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY
COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO/THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN/THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 19N TO 32N BETWEEN 70W AND 84W.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FINALLY HAVE REACHED THE MAINLAND
U.S.A. WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN
WARMING IN THE AREA OF EARLIER PRECIPITATION FROM 24N TO 28N
BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS AND FLORIDA. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO
LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ELSEWHERE IN PARTS OF THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC OCEAN AND THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO ARE FOUND FROM
24N TO 30N BETWEEN 77W AND 85W...AND FROM 30N TO 32N BETWEEN
72W AND 82W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WATERS. THE BROAD AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE JUST EAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA HAS BECOME LESS
ORGANIZED AND THE POTENTIAL FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION HAS
DIMINISHED. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS SYSTEM CLOSELY...
AND...IF NECESSARY...AN AIR FORCE PLANE WILL INVESTIGATE THE
SYSTEM ON SUNDAY. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
INDICATE THAT THE LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY ARE
POORLY ORGANIZED AT THIS TIME. THIS SYSTEM STILL HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION
WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT DRIFTS TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST ABOUT 10 MPH.
A 1021 MB AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 34N51W...ABOUT
775 MILES EAST OF BERMUDA...MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. THERE ARE
NO SIGNS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION...AND ANY KIND OF FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE SLOW TO OCCUR. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO
ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM 28N TO 36N BETWEEN
45W AND 57W.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 34W/35W SOUTH OF 12N
MOVING WEST 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM 9N TO 12N BETWEEN 32W AND 36W...AND
FROM 8N TO 9N BETWEEN 35W AND 38W.
A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 71W/72W SOUTH OF 20N
MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL HAITI ABOUT 10 KT. NO PRECIPITATION
CAN BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE DIRECTLY. UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY
WINDS ARE CUTTING ACROSS THE AREA OF THIS WAVE.
...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ 11N15W 7N22W 7N33W 7N36W 6N54W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS/LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EAST OF 10W...WITHIN 180 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 8N13W 6N24W
9N34W 6N42W...AND SOUTH OF 10N BETWEEN 42W AND 54W.
...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
IT LOOKS LIKE A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER IS TRYING TO
FORM NEAR 28N88W IN THE NORTHEASTERN PART OF THE AREA. A SECOND
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER IS NEAR 22N97W JUST OFF THE
MEXICO COAST NEAR TAMPICO. CYCLONIC FLOW IN THE WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY COVERS THE GULF WATERS FROM 20N TO 26N BETWEEN 92W AND
101W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS DIGGING INTO THE AREA
OF NORTHEASTERN TEXAS/NORTHWESTERN LOUISIANA. SOME LINGERING
PRECIPITATION MAY REMAIN IN SOUTHERN COASTAL LOUISIANA...BUT
MUCH OF IT FROM 4 TO 6 HOURS AGO HAS DISAPPEARED. THE NORTHERN
PART OF A 92W/93W TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE ISTHMUS
OF TEHUANTEPEC OF MEXICO. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND LOCALLY
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER LAND BETWEEN THE WESTERN GUATEMALA
BORDER AND 94W. ISOLATED MODERATE THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE
EASTERN GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS FOUND IN
MUCH OF THE REST OF THE AREA.
THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 71W/72W SOUTH OF 20N MOVING THROUGH
CENTRAL HAITI. NO PRECIPITATION CAN BE ASSOCIATED DIRECTLY
WITH THIS WAVE. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES FROM
THE GULF OF HONDURAS TO PANAMA BETWEEN 76W AND 100W. NUMEROUS
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS
ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN NICARAGUA COAST. ISOLATED MODERATE
SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE IN THIS ARE FROM HONDURAS TO PANAMA.
THIS PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO THRIVE IN THE AREA OF THE UPPER
LEVEL HIGH AND POSSIBLE UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW. UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDS STREAM FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...ACROSS JAMAICA...AND
CURVE TO 14N70W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RUNS PUERTO RICO TO 25N69W
TO 28N72W. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALIVE AND WELL IN THE
AREA OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND ATLANTIC OCEAN IN UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENT FLOW FROM 16N TO 25N BETWEEN 56W AND 70W.
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH GOES FROM A LOW CENTER NEAR
35N52W TO 32N56W 29N58W 24N64W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS
IMMEDIATELY TO THE SOUTHEAST OF 31N39W 24N50W 21N60W. UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE IS STREAMING TO THE NORTHEAST WITHIN 180 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF 21N63W 24N52W 27N44W 31N38W. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC WATERS NORTH OF THE ITCZ AND THE
34W/35W TROPICAL WAVE BETWEEN AFRICA AND 50W. BROAD UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC WATERS TO THE
EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE.
$$
MT
AXNT20 KNHC 250605
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SUN JUN 25 2006
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 28N78W...FORECAST TO MOVE
OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER AS ITS SUPPORT IS NEAR 26N76W. MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IN THE WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY
COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO/THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN/THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 19N TO 32N BETWEEN 70W AND 84W.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FINALLY HAVE REACHED THE MAINLAND
U.S.A. WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN
WARMING IN THE AREA OF EARLIER PRECIPITATION FROM 24N TO 28N
BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS AND FLORIDA. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO
LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ELSEWHERE IN PARTS OF THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC OCEAN AND THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO ARE FOUND FROM
24N TO 30N BETWEEN 77W AND 85W...AND FROM 30N TO 32N BETWEEN
72W AND 82W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WATERS. THE BROAD AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE JUST EAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA HAS BECOME LESS
ORGANIZED AND THE POTENTIAL FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION HAS
DIMINISHED. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS SYSTEM CLOSELY...
AND...IF NECESSARY...AN AIR FORCE PLANE WILL INVESTIGATE THE
SYSTEM ON SUNDAY. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
INDICATE THAT THE LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY ARE
POORLY ORGANIZED AT THIS TIME. THIS SYSTEM STILL HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION
WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT DRIFTS TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST ABOUT 10 MPH.
A 1021 MB AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 34N51W...ABOUT
775 MILES EAST OF BERMUDA...MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. THERE ARE
NO SIGNS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION...AND ANY KIND OF FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE SLOW TO OCCUR. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO
ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM 28N TO 36N BETWEEN
45W AND 57W.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 34W/35W SOUTH OF 12N
MOVING WEST 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM 9N TO 12N BETWEEN 32W AND 36W...AND
FROM 8N TO 9N BETWEEN 35W AND 38W.
A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 71W/72W SOUTH OF 20N
MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL HAITI ABOUT 10 KT. NO PRECIPITATION
CAN BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE DIRECTLY. UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY
WINDS ARE CUTTING ACROSS THE AREA OF THIS WAVE.
...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ 11N15W 7N22W 7N33W 7N36W 6N54W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS/LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EAST OF 10W...WITHIN 180 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 8N13W 6N24W
9N34W 6N42W...AND SOUTH OF 10N BETWEEN 42W AND 54W.
...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
IT LOOKS LIKE A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER IS TRYING TO
FORM NEAR 28N88W IN THE NORTHEASTERN PART OF THE AREA. A SECOND
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER IS NEAR 22N97W JUST OFF THE
MEXICO COAST NEAR TAMPICO. CYCLONIC FLOW IN THE WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY COVERS THE GULF WATERS FROM 20N TO 26N BETWEEN 92W AND
101W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS DIGGING INTO THE AREA
OF NORTHEASTERN TEXAS/NORTHWESTERN LOUISIANA. SOME LINGERING
PRECIPITATION MAY REMAIN IN SOUTHERN COASTAL LOUISIANA...BUT
MUCH OF IT FROM 4 TO 6 HOURS AGO HAS DISAPPEARED. THE NORTHERN
PART OF A 92W/93W TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE ISTHMUS
OF TEHUANTEPEC OF MEXICO. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND LOCALLY
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER LAND BETWEEN THE WESTERN GUATEMALA
BORDER AND 94W. ISOLATED MODERATE THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE
EASTERN GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS FOUND IN
MUCH OF THE REST OF THE AREA.
THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 71W/72W SOUTH OF 20N MOVING THROUGH
CENTRAL HAITI. NO PRECIPITATION CAN BE ASSOCIATED DIRECTLY
WITH THIS WAVE. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES FROM
THE GULF OF HONDURAS TO PANAMA BETWEEN 76W AND 100W. NUMEROUS
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS
ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN NICARAGUA COAST. ISOLATED MODERATE
SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE IN THIS ARE FROM HONDURAS TO PANAMA.
THIS PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO THRIVE IN THE AREA OF THE UPPER
LEVEL HIGH AND POSSIBLE UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW. UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDS STREAM FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...ACROSS JAMAICA...AND
CURVE TO 14N70W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RUNS PUERTO RICO TO 25N69W
TO 28N72W. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALIVE AND WELL IN THE
AREA OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND ATLANTIC OCEAN IN UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENT FLOW FROM 16N TO 25N BETWEEN 56W AND 70W.
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH GOES FROM A LOW CENTER NEAR
35N52W TO 32N56W 29N58W 24N64W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS
IMMEDIATELY TO THE SOUTHEAST OF 31N39W 24N50W 21N60W. UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE IS STREAMING TO THE NORTHEAST WITHIN 180 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF 21N63W 24N52W 27N44W 31N38W. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC WATERS NORTH OF THE ITCZ AND THE
34W/35W TROPICAL WAVE BETWEEN AFRICA AND 50W. BROAD UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC WATERS TO THE
EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE.
$$
MT
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cycloneye
- Admin
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- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
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AXNT20 KNHC 251055
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SUN JUN 25 2006
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 27.5N 79.5W EAST OF VERO
BEACH AND FORT PIERCE FLORIDA...FORECAST TO MOVE TO THE EASTERN
PART OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER AS ITS SUPPORT IS NEAR 26N77W.
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IN THE WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
IMAGERY COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO/THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN/THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 19N TO 32N BETWEEN 70W AND 84W.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE
WITHIN 60 NM TO 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 23N80W 29N81W 33N78W
29N74W 24N69W...IN CLUSTERS AROUND THE PERIMETER OF THE MIDDLE
TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW WHICH ACCOMPANIES THIS FEATURE. THIS WEATHER
SYSTEM IS DRIFTING WESTWARD WITH NO SIGNS OF DEVELOPMENT.
AN AIR FORCE PLANE WILL INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM LATER TODAY
IF NECESSARY.
A NON-TROPICAL 1022 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 35N52W...
ABOUT 650 NM EAST OF BERMUDA...MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. THERE
ARE NO SIGNS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION...AND ANY KIND OF
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WILL BE SLOW TO OCCUR. SCATTERED MODERATE
SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM 28N TO
36N BETWEEN 45W AND 57W.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 36W SOUTH OF 12N
MOVING WEST 15 KT. SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM
8N TO 11N BETWEEN 35W AND 39W.
A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 72W/73W SOUTH OF 20N
MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL HAITI ABOUT 10 KT. NO PRECIPITATION
CAN BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE DIRECTLY. UPPER LEVEL
WESTERLY WINDS ARE CUTTING ACROSS THE AREA OF THIS WAVE.
...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ 11N14W 8N20W 7N33W 7N37W 6N55W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS/LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ELSEWHERE EAST OF 10W...WITHIN 180 NM TO 240 NM ON EITHER SIDE
OF 7N12W 6N25W 10N36W 6N43W 7N57W.
...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER IS FORMING NEAR 27N88W IN
THE NORTHEASTERN PART OF THE AREA. THE TAMPICO MEXICO LOW CENTER
FROM SIX HOURS AGO HAS BECOME LESS WELL-DEFINED BUT IT STILL
MAINTAINS SOME FORM OF CYCLONIC FLOW IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER
OF THE AREA. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS DIGGING INTO THE
AREA OF THE NORTHWESTERN GULF WATERS NEAR 28N93W. THIS TROUGH IS
SURROUNDED BY MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR AROUND IT. THE
NORTHERN PART OF A 93W/94W TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE
ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF MEXICO. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND
LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER LAND BETWEEN 90W AND 95W.
UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS FOUND IN MUCH OF THE REST OF THE AREA.
THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 72W/73W SOUTH OF 20N MOVING THROUGH
CENTRAL HAITI. NO PRECIPITATION CAN BE ASSOCIATED DIRECTLY
WITH THIS WAVE. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES FROM
THE GULF OF HONDURAS TO PANAMA BETWEEN 76W AND 100W. SCATTERED
MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE
GULF OF HONDURAS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EAST OF NICARAGUA BETWEEN 80W AND THE COAST. THIS PRECIPITATION
CONTINUES TO THRIVE IN THE AREA OF THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH CENTER
AND POSSIBLE UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW. UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS
STREAM FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...ACROSS JAMAICA...AND CURVE
TO 14N70W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RUNS PUERTO RICO TO 24N68W TO
28N73W. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN DIMINISHING IN THE
AREA FROM 16N TO 25N BETWEEN 56W AND 70W DURING THE LAST FOUR
TO SIX HOURS. THE COVERAGE WAS MORE WIDESPREAD AND THE INTENSITY
OF THE PRECIPITATION WAS GREATER FOUR TO SIX HOURS AGO. LINGERING
PRECIPITATION STILL IS FOUND IN THE UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW
IN THIS AREA.
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH GOES FROM A LOW CENTER NEAR
34N54W TO 28N56W 24N63W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS IMMEDIATELY TO
THE SOUTHEAST OF 31N39W 24N50W 21N60W. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS
STREAMING TO THE NORTHEAST WITHIN 180 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF
21N63W 24N52W 27N44W 31N38W. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS
THE ATLANTIC WATERS NORTH OF THE ITCZ AND THE 36W TROPICAL
WAVE BETWEEN AFRICA AND 50W. BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
COVERS THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC WATERS TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST
OF THE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE.
$$
MT
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SUN JUN 25 2006
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 27.5N 79.5W EAST OF VERO
BEACH AND FORT PIERCE FLORIDA...FORECAST TO MOVE TO THE EASTERN
PART OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER AS ITS SUPPORT IS NEAR 26N77W.
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IN THE WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
IMAGERY COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO/THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN/THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 19N TO 32N BETWEEN 70W AND 84W.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE
WITHIN 60 NM TO 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 23N80W 29N81W 33N78W
29N74W 24N69W...IN CLUSTERS AROUND THE PERIMETER OF THE MIDDLE
TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW WHICH ACCOMPANIES THIS FEATURE. THIS WEATHER
SYSTEM IS DRIFTING WESTWARD WITH NO SIGNS OF DEVELOPMENT.
AN AIR FORCE PLANE WILL INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM LATER TODAY
IF NECESSARY.
A NON-TROPICAL 1022 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 35N52W...
ABOUT 650 NM EAST OF BERMUDA...MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. THERE
ARE NO SIGNS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION...AND ANY KIND OF
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WILL BE SLOW TO OCCUR. SCATTERED MODERATE
SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM 28N TO
36N BETWEEN 45W AND 57W.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 36W SOUTH OF 12N
MOVING WEST 15 KT. SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM
8N TO 11N BETWEEN 35W AND 39W.
A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 72W/73W SOUTH OF 20N
MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL HAITI ABOUT 10 KT. NO PRECIPITATION
CAN BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE DIRECTLY. UPPER LEVEL
WESTERLY WINDS ARE CUTTING ACROSS THE AREA OF THIS WAVE.
...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ 11N14W 8N20W 7N33W 7N37W 6N55W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS/LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ELSEWHERE EAST OF 10W...WITHIN 180 NM TO 240 NM ON EITHER SIDE
OF 7N12W 6N25W 10N36W 6N43W 7N57W.
...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER IS FORMING NEAR 27N88W IN
THE NORTHEASTERN PART OF THE AREA. THE TAMPICO MEXICO LOW CENTER
FROM SIX HOURS AGO HAS BECOME LESS WELL-DEFINED BUT IT STILL
MAINTAINS SOME FORM OF CYCLONIC FLOW IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER
OF THE AREA. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS DIGGING INTO THE
AREA OF THE NORTHWESTERN GULF WATERS NEAR 28N93W. THIS TROUGH IS
SURROUNDED BY MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR AROUND IT. THE
NORTHERN PART OF A 93W/94W TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE
ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF MEXICO. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND
LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER LAND BETWEEN 90W AND 95W.
UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS FOUND IN MUCH OF THE REST OF THE AREA.
THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 72W/73W SOUTH OF 20N MOVING THROUGH
CENTRAL HAITI. NO PRECIPITATION CAN BE ASSOCIATED DIRECTLY
WITH THIS WAVE. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES FROM
THE GULF OF HONDURAS TO PANAMA BETWEEN 76W AND 100W. SCATTERED
MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE
GULF OF HONDURAS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EAST OF NICARAGUA BETWEEN 80W AND THE COAST. THIS PRECIPITATION
CONTINUES TO THRIVE IN THE AREA OF THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH CENTER
AND POSSIBLE UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW. UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS
STREAM FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...ACROSS JAMAICA...AND CURVE
TO 14N70W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RUNS PUERTO RICO TO 24N68W TO
28N73W. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN DIMINISHING IN THE
AREA FROM 16N TO 25N BETWEEN 56W AND 70W DURING THE LAST FOUR
TO SIX HOURS. THE COVERAGE WAS MORE WIDESPREAD AND THE INTENSITY
OF THE PRECIPITATION WAS GREATER FOUR TO SIX HOURS AGO. LINGERING
PRECIPITATION STILL IS FOUND IN THE UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW
IN THIS AREA.
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH GOES FROM A LOW CENTER NEAR
34N54W TO 28N56W 24N63W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS IMMEDIATELY TO
THE SOUTHEAST OF 31N39W 24N50W 21N60W. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS
STREAMING TO THE NORTHEAST WITHIN 180 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF
21N63W 24N52W 27N44W 31N38W. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS
THE ATLANTIC WATERS NORTH OF THE ITCZ AND THE 36W TROPICAL
WAVE BETWEEN AFRICA AND 50W. BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
COVERS THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC WATERS TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST
OF THE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE.
$$
MT
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Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
621
ABNT20 KNHC 251510
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT SUN JUN 25 2006
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED NEAR CAPE
CANAVERAL FLORIDA IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH.
ALTHOUGH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY LIMITED...
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
SO. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO
INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM TOMORROW... IF NECESSARY. HOWEVER... EVEN IF
A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DOES NOT DEVELOP... THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL STILL PRODUCE PERIODS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE
FLOODING ACROSS MUCH OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA... SOUTHEASTERN
GEORGIA... AND THE CAROLINAS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
A SMALL NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED ABOUT 625 MILES
EAST-NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR ANY
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM TO OCCUR.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
ABNT20 KNHC 251510
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT SUN JUN 25 2006
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED NEAR CAPE
CANAVERAL FLORIDA IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH.
ALTHOUGH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY LIMITED...
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
SO. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO
INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM TOMORROW... IF NECESSARY. HOWEVER... EVEN IF
A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DOES NOT DEVELOP... THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL STILL PRODUCE PERIODS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE
FLOODING ACROSS MUCH OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA... SOUTHEASTERN
GEORGIA... AND THE CAROLINAS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
A SMALL NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED ABOUT 625 MILES
EAST-NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR ANY
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM TO OCCUR.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
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This the afternoon discussion from TPC. The time is wrong on top.
265
AXNT20 KNHC 251718
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SUN JUN 25 2006
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1645 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE COVERS THE AREA FROM THE STRAITS
OF FLORIDA TO THE CAROLINAS WITH A 1010 MB LOW CENTERED ALONG
THE COAST OF FLORIDA BETWEEN WEST PALM AND VERO BEACH NEAR
27N80W AND A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM NEAR THE SOUTH
CAROLINA/GEORGIA BORDER THROUGH THE LOW ACROSS S FLORIDA TO THE
FLORIDA KEYS. THE ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. EVEN
IF A TROPICAL SYSTEM DOES NOT DEVELOP...IT IS EXPECTED TO BRING
HEAVY SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA AND THE COASTAL AREAS THROUGH NORTH CAROLINA.
CURRENTLY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 23N-36N BETWEEN
78W-85W WITH THE HEAVIEST THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS.
THE 1022 MB LOW CENTERED E OF BERMUDA IS NOT EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
INTO A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 37W/38W S OF 14N MOVING W 15 KT. BROAD
LOW/MID LEVEL SIGNATURE CURVATURE IS OBSERVED ON INFRARED AND
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
8N-12N BETWEEN 35W-40W.
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 75W S OF 20N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WEAK WAVE
SIGNATURE CURVATURE IS OBSERVED ON INFRARED AND VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY. WAVE IS BENEATH A BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
CARIBBEAN...LIMITING MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE. THUS NO
ASSOCIATED CONVECTION.
...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N13W 7N24W 9N36W 4N53W. SCATTERED
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION DOT THE AREA WITHIN
250/300 NM OF THE AXIS ACROSS THE ENTIRE ATLC.
...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
MAIN WEATHER MAKER TODAY OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO IS THE 1010 MB
LOW OFF THE FLORIDA E COAST DESCRIBED IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES
ABOVE. AN UPPER RIDGE OVER MEXICO ANCHORED IN THE E PACIFIC
REGION EXTENDS OVER THE W GULF W OF 92W. AN UPPER LOW/TROUGH
OVER THE BAHAMAS COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF FROM
23N-29N BETWEEN 85W-94W.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE E PACIFIC REGION ACROSS
CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN ALONG 13N TO 68W. LOW LEVEL
EASTERLY FLOW COMBINED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW AND
THE PRESENCE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE IS GENERATING AN AREA OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ALONG THE COAST OF
NICARAGUA FROM 11N-15N BETWEEN 80W-85W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING S OF 11N W OF 76W TO INLAND OVER
CENTRAL AMERICA DUE TO THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE ITCZ AXIS IN
THE E PACIFIC REGION. AN UPPER TROUGH THAT DIPS FROM THE W ATLC
TO OVER HISPANIOLA IS GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM ALONG THE S
COAST OF HISPANIOLA. THE E CARIBBEAN IS MOSTLY CLOUD AND SHOWER
FREE.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE FOCUS OF TODAYS WEATHER IS THE 1010 MB LOW ALONG THE E COAST
OF FLORIDA IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. A BROAD UPPER
LOW/TROUGH EXTENDS FROM HISPANIOLA NE TO THE CAROLINAS ANCHORED
OVER THE BAHAMAS NEAR 25N77W. IN ADDITION TO THE ACTIVITY
MENTIONED ABOVE...SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE 19N68W-29N74W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER
THE REMAINDER OF THE BAHAMAS. A NARROW UPPER RIDGE IS TO THE E
SEPARATING THE TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC FROM THE DEEP LAYERED
TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC. THIS UPPER TROUGH IS N OF 21N FROM
46W-65W WITH AN UPPER LOW NEAR 31N55W. A WEAK 1022 MB LOW IS
CENTERED NEAR 34N53W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING SSW TO
23N59W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 26N
FROM 46W-55W AND WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE 26N51W-21N60W. AN UPPER
HIGH IN THE E TROPICAL ATLC IS LOCATED NEAR 13N33W WITH AN UPPER
RIDGE COVERING THE AREA S OF 23N E OF 50W GIVING THE REMAINDER
OF THE NE ATLC NEAR ZONAL FLOW.
$$
WALLACE
265
AXNT20 KNHC 251718
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SUN JUN 25 2006
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1645 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE COVERS THE AREA FROM THE STRAITS
OF FLORIDA TO THE CAROLINAS WITH A 1010 MB LOW CENTERED ALONG
THE COAST OF FLORIDA BETWEEN WEST PALM AND VERO BEACH NEAR
27N80W AND A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM NEAR THE SOUTH
CAROLINA/GEORGIA BORDER THROUGH THE LOW ACROSS S FLORIDA TO THE
FLORIDA KEYS. THE ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. EVEN
IF A TROPICAL SYSTEM DOES NOT DEVELOP...IT IS EXPECTED TO BRING
HEAVY SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA AND THE COASTAL AREAS THROUGH NORTH CAROLINA.
CURRENTLY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 23N-36N BETWEEN
78W-85W WITH THE HEAVIEST THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS.
THE 1022 MB LOW CENTERED E OF BERMUDA IS NOT EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
INTO A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 37W/38W S OF 14N MOVING W 15 KT. BROAD
LOW/MID LEVEL SIGNATURE CURVATURE IS OBSERVED ON INFRARED AND
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
8N-12N BETWEEN 35W-40W.
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 75W S OF 20N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WEAK WAVE
SIGNATURE CURVATURE IS OBSERVED ON INFRARED AND VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY. WAVE IS BENEATH A BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
CARIBBEAN...LIMITING MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE. THUS NO
ASSOCIATED CONVECTION.
...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N13W 7N24W 9N36W 4N53W. SCATTERED
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION DOT THE AREA WITHIN
250/300 NM OF THE AXIS ACROSS THE ENTIRE ATLC.
...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
MAIN WEATHER MAKER TODAY OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO IS THE 1010 MB
LOW OFF THE FLORIDA E COAST DESCRIBED IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES
ABOVE. AN UPPER RIDGE OVER MEXICO ANCHORED IN THE E PACIFIC
REGION EXTENDS OVER THE W GULF W OF 92W. AN UPPER LOW/TROUGH
OVER THE BAHAMAS COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF FROM
23N-29N BETWEEN 85W-94W.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE E PACIFIC REGION ACROSS
CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN ALONG 13N TO 68W. LOW LEVEL
EASTERLY FLOW COMBINED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW AND
THE PRESENCE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE IS GENERATING AN AREA OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ALONG THE COAST OF
NICARAGUA FROM 11N-15N BETWEEN 80W-85W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING S OF 11N W OF 76W TO INLAND OVER
CENTRAL AMERICA DUE TO THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE ITCZ AXIS IN
THE E PACIFIC REGION. AN UPPER TROUGH THAT DIPS FROM THE W ATLC
TO OVER HISPANIOLA IS GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM ALONG THE S
COAST OF HISPANIOLA. THE E CARIBBEAN IS MOSTLY CLOUD AND SHOWER
FREE.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE FOCUS OF TODAYS WEATHER IS THE 1010 MB LOW ALONG THE E COAST
OF FLORIDA IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. A BROAD UPPER
LOW/TROUGH EXTENDS FROM HISPANIOLA NE TO THE CAROLINAS ANCHORED
OVER THE BAHAMAS NEAR 25N77W. IN ADDITION TO THE ACTIVITY
MENTIONED ABOVE...SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE 19N68W-29N74W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER
THE REMAINDER OF THE BAHAMAS. A NARROW UPPER RIDGE IS TO THE E
SEPARATING THE TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC FROM THE DEEP LAYERED
TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC. THIS UPPER TROUGH IS N OF 21N FROM
46W-65W WITH AN UPPER LOW NEAR 31N55W. A WEAK 1022 MB LOW IS
CENTERED NEAR 34N53W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING SSW TO
23N59W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 26N
FROM 46W-55W AND WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE 26N51W-21N60W. AN UPPER
HIGH IN THE E TROPICAL ATLC IS LOCATED NEAR 13N33W WITH AN UPPER
RIDGE COVERING THE AREA S OF 23N E OF 50W GIVING THE REMAINDER
OF THE NE ATLC NEAR ZONAL FLOW.
$$
WALLACE
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756
ABNT20 KNHC 252104
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT SUN JUN 25 2006
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED INLAND OVER THE CENTRAL
FLORIDA PENINSULA. THIS SYSTEM...COUPLED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW
OVER THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...IS ENHANCING SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND ADJACENT
WATERS. THE SHOWER ACTIVITY REMAINS DISORGANIZED AND SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS NOT LIKELY WHILE THE CENTER REMAINS
OVER LAND.
A NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...CENTERED ABOUT 600 MILES
EAST-NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA...IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED.
A SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED ABOUT 1200 MILES
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS. THERE IS LITTLE
SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WESTWARD-MOVING SYSTEM AND
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
ABNT20 KNHC 252104
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT SUN JUN 25 2006
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED INLAND OVER THE CENTRAL
FLORIDA PENINSULA. THIS SYSTEM...COUPLED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW
OVER THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...IS ENHANCING SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND ADJACENT
WATERS. THE SHOWER ACTIVITY REMAINS DISORGANIZED AND SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS NOT LIKELY WHILE THE CENTER REMAINS
OVER LAND.
A NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...CENTERED ABOUT 600 MILES
EAST-NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA...IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED.
A SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED ABOUT 1200 MILES
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS. THERE IS LITTLE
SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WESTWARD-MOVING SYSTEM AND
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
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000
AXNT20 KNHC 260001
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SUN JUN 25 2006
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE COVERS THE AREA FROM THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA TO S GEORGIA WITH A 1010 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR COCOA
FLORIDA AT 28N81W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM S GEORGIA TO
THE SURFACE LOW TO THE FLORIDA KEYS ALONG 31M82W 28N81W 24N82W.
THE ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. EVEN IF A TROPICAL
SYSTEM DOES NOT DEVELOP...IT IS EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY SHOWERS
AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE
COASTAL AREAS THROUGH NORTH CAROLINA. CURRENTLY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 25N-30N BETWEEN 81W-83W.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 39W S OF 14N MOVING W 15 KT. WELL
DEFINED CYCLONIC TURNING IS N OF THE ITCZ. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 9N-14N BETWEEN 35W-43W.
A 1012 MB LOW IS LOCATED ON THE ITCZ NEAR 7N43W. WELL DEFINED
CYCLONIC TURNING IS NOTED. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 6N-9N BETWEEN 43W-45W.
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 76W S OF 20N MOVING W 10-15 KT. SLIGHT
LOW LEVEL TURNING IS NOTED. THE WAVE IS BENEATH A MOIST UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN...LIMITING SATELLITE LOW LEVEL
SIGNATURE. PATCHES OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER
HISPANIOLA...JAMAICA...AND E CUBA FROM 17N-21N BETWEEN 68W-78W.
...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N13W 8N20W 9N40W 6N50W 6N60W.
SCATTERED CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM
3N-6N BETWEEN 25W-35W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 1N-6N BETWEEN 41W-45W.
...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE OVER THE AREA IS THE 1010 MB LOW OVER
CENTRAL FLORIDA DESCRIBED IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. 10 KT
CYCLONIC TURNING WITH FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE E GULF W OF
FLORIDA BETWEEN 83W-90W. 10 KT NLY FLOW WITH FAIR WEATHER IS
OVER THE W GULF W OF 90W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A TINY
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS OVER THE E GULF NEAR 26N87W. CYCLONIC
FLOW IS WITHIN 180 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER. SUBSIDENCE
DOMINATES THE MAJORITY OF THE GULF. EXPECT... ACTIVE
PREFRONTAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY INLAND OVER THE SE UNITED
STATES TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. ALSO EXPECT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
OVER FLORIDA TOMORROW DUE TO THE SURFACE LOW OVER CENTRAL
FLORIDA.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
SEE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION ABOVE. IN ADDITION... PATCHES OF
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN
AND CENTRAL AMERICA W OF 80W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL AMERICA NEAR
14N83W. ABUNDANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS BEING ADVECTED ACROSS
CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 75W. EXPECT THE
TROPICAL WAVE TO CONTINUE TO ENHANCE CONVECTION OVER THE
CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
SEE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION ABOVE. IN ADDITION...A
SURFACE TROUGH IS N OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS FROM 30N54W TO 25N60W
22N66W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS FROM 20N-22N BETWEEN 63W-70W. A STRONG 1037 MB
HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 43N36W DOMINATING THE
REMAINDER OF THE SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC N OF 20N. VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND THE SAHARAN AIR LAYER FROM CIMSS ARE STILL
SHOWING A BROAD AREA OF AFRICAN DUST BETWEEN THE LESSER ANTILLES
AND THE COAST OF AFRICA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER THE BAHAMAS NEAR 26N77W. CYCLONIC
FLOW IS FROM 20N-32N BETWEEN 70W-80W. A RIDGE IS FURTHER E...N
OF 20N BETWEEN 60W-70W. A LARGE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS
CENTERED NEAR 30N54W. CYCLONIC FLOW IS N OF 25N BETWEEN
40W-60W. A RIDGE IS N OF 20N BETWEEN 20W-40W.
$$
FORMOSA
AXNT20 KNHC 260001
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SUN JUN 25 2006
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE COVERS THE AREA FROM THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA TO S GEORGIA WITH A 1010 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR COCOA
FLORIDA AT 28N81W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM S GEORGIA TO
THE SURFACE LOW TO THE FLORIDA KEYS ALONG 31M82W 28N81W 24N82W.
THE ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. EVEN IF A TROPICAL
SYSTEM DOES NOT DEVELOP...IT IS EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY SHOWERS
AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE
COASTAL AREAS THROUGH NORTH CAROLINA. CURRENTLY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 25N-30N BETWEEN 81W-83W.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 39W S OF 14N MOVING W 15 KT. WELL
DEFINED CYCLONIC TURNING IS N OF THE ITCZ. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 9N-14N BETWEEN 35W-43W.
A 1012 MB LOW IS LOCATED ON THE ITCZ NEAR 7N43W. WELL DEFINED
CYCLONIC TURNING IS NOTED. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 6N-9N BETWEEN 43W-45W.
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 76W S OF 20N MOVING W 10-15 KT. SLIGHT
LOW LEVEL TURNING IS NOTED. THE WAVE IS BENEATH A MOIST UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN...LIMITING SATELLITE LOW LEVEL
SIGNATURE. PATCHES OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER
HISPANIOLA...JAMAICA...AND E CUBA FROM 17N-21N BETWEEN 68W-78W.
...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N13W 8N20W 9N40W 6N50W 6N60W.
SCATTERED CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM
3N-6N BETWEEN 25W-35W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 1N-6N BETWEEN 41W-45W.
...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE OVER THE AREA IS THE 1010 MB LOW OVER
CENTRAL FLORIDA DESCRIBED IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. 10 KT
CYCLONIC TURNING WITH FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE E GULF W OF
FLORIDA BETWEEN 83W-90W. 10 KT NLY FLOW WITH FAIR WEATHER IS
OVER THE W GULF W OF 90W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A TINY
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS OVER THE E GULF NEAR 26N87W. CYCLONIC
FLOW IS WITHIN 180 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER. SUBSIDENCE
DOMINATES THE MAJORITY OF THE GULF. EXPECT... ACTIVE
PREFRONTAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY INLAND OVER THE SE UNITED
STATES TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. ALSO EXPECT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
OVER FLORIDA TOMORROW DUE TO THE SURFACE LOW OVER CENTRAL
FLORIDA.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
SEE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION ABOVE. IN ADDITION... PATCHES OF
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN
AND CENTRAL AMERICA W OF 80W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL AMERICA NEAR
14N83W. ABUNDANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS BEING ADVECTED ACROSS
CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 75W. EXPECT THE
TROPICAL WAVE TO CONTINUE TO ENHANCE CONVECTION OVER THE
CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
SEE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION ABOVE. IN ADDITION...A
SURFACE TROUGH IS N OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS FROM 30N54W TO 25N60W
22N66W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS FROM 20N-22N BETWEEN 63W-70W. A STRONG 1037 MB
HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 43N36W DOMINATING THE
REMAINDER OF THE SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC N OF 20N. VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND THE SAHARAN AIR LAYER FROM CIMSS ARE STILL
SHOWING A BROAD AREA OF AFRICAN DUST BETWEEN THE LESSER ANTILLES
AND THE COAST OF AFRICA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER THE BAHAMAS NEAR 26N77W. CYCLONIC
FLOW IS FROM 20N-32N BETWEEN 70W-80W. A RIDGE IS FURTHER E...N
OF 20N BETWEEN 60W-70W. A LARGE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS
CENTERED NEAR 30N54W. CYCLONIC FLOW IS N OF 25N BETWEEN
40W-60W. A RIDGE IS N OF 20N BETWEEN 20W-40W.
$$
FORMOSA
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TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 PM EDT SUN JUN 25 2006
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD AND DIFFUSE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDS OVER THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA. THIS SYSTEM...COUPLED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...IS ENHANCING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE ADJACENT WATERS. THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY REMAINS DISORGANIZED AND DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM...IF ANY...IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES GENERALLY NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. FOR
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE CONSULT
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NWS FORECAST OFFICE.
A SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED ABOUT 1150 MILES EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS. THERE IS LITTLE
SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WESTWARD-MOVING DISTURBANCE AND
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
TUESDAY.
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 PM EDT SUN JUN 25 2006
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD AND DIFFUSE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDS OVER THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA. THIS SYSTEM...COUPLED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...IS ENHANCING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE ADJACENT WATERS. THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY REMAINS DISORGANIZED AND DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM...IF ANY...IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES GENERALLY NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. FOR
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE CONSULT
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NWS FORECAST OFFICE.
A SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED ABOUT 1150 MILES EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS. THERE IS LITTLE
SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WESTWARD-MOVING DISTURBANCE AND
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
TUESDAY.
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
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000
AXNT20 KNHC 260610
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT MON JUN 26 2006
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0545 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 28N81W INLAND OVER
EAST-CENTRAL FLORIDA. BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE APPEARS
TO BE CLOSING ITSELF OFF TOWARD THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER
OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. ONE CYCLONIC SWIRL ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY IS CENTERED NEAR 28N77W AND ANOTHER ONE IS NEAR
27N77W. BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS IN THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 20N TO 32N BETWEEN 68W AND THE
FLORIDA/GEORGIA COASTS. ANOTHER MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW
CENTER IS IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 26N87W. BROAD
CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO EAST OF 90W. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IN GENERAL ARE MORE ON THE FLORIDA WEST COAST
THAN ON THE EAST COAST. SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND
FROM THE SOUTHERN TIP OF FLORIDA TO THE SURROUNDING FLORIDA KEYS
NORTH OF 24.5N. AREAS OF DEVELOPING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE A LITTLE BIT NORTHWEST OF TAMPA FLORIDA. THE CLOUD TOP
TEMPERATURES ARE WARMING IN AREAS OF PRECIPITATION IN
SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA AND THE NEARBY FLORIDA PANHANDLE. NUMEROUS
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 23N TO 24N AT THE SOUTHERN
PART OF ANDROS ISLAND BETWEEN 76.5W AND 78.5W. LINGERING BUT
WEAKENING PRECIPITATION IS OVER THE WATERS IN BETWEEN THE CAICOS
ISLANDS AND THE ISLAND OF MAYAGUANA. OTHER ISOLATED MODERATE
SHOWERS ARE FOUND IN THE BAHAMAS FROM 24N TO GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND
BETWEEN 73W AND 80W...AND WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 25N68W
29N73W BEYOND 32N77W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED BETWEEN SOUTHEASTERN CUBA AND HAITI
ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE CYCLONIC FLOW.
A 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC
OCEAN ITCZ NEAR 6N45W...ABOUT 975 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS. SCATTERED
MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IN THE ITCZ
ARE FOUND FROM 2N TO 8N BETWEEN 42W AND 47W.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 40W/41W SOUTH OF 15N
MOVING WEST 15 KT. SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 10N
TO 12N BETWEEN 41W AND 42W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE IN
A LINE FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 36W AND 40W.
A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS PASSING OVER JAMAICA ALONG
77W/78W SOUTH OF 20N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. NO PRECIPITATION
CAN BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE DIRECTLY. UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY
WINDS ARE CUTTING ACROSS THE AREA OF THIS WAVE...AS THE WAVE
MOVES TOWARD BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IN THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA.
...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ 10N14W 8N20W 9N39W 6N48W 6N57W. SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 3N TO 6N BETWEEN 30W AND 36W...AND FROM
7N TO 9N BETWEEN 49W AND 51W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS
TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 6N TO 10N BETWEEN 30W AND
40W...AND ELSEWHERE SOUTH OF 10N WEST OF 30W. ISOLATED MODERATE
SHOWERS ARE FOUND EAST OF 10W...AND FROM 4N TO 10N BETWEEN 10W
AND 30W.
...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE SOUTHERN POINT OF A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH IS
MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE U.S.A. REACHES
CENTRAL LOUISIANA. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE
GULF WATERS WEST OF 90W. THE EASTERN SECTION IS DOMINATED BY
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER NEAR 26N87W. BROAD CYCLONIC
FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO EAST OF 90W.
THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS PASSING OVER JAMAICA ALONG 77W/78W SOUTH OF
20N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. NO PRECIPITATION CAN BE ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS WAVE DIRECTLY. UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS ARE CUTTING
ACROSS THE AREA OF THIS WAVE...AS THE WAVE MOVES TOWARD BROAD
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.
THE PART EAST OF 66W IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE 30N52W-TO-
GUADELOUPE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE NORTH CENTRAL
SECTION IS ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE BAHAMA ISLANDS EAST OF FLORIDA AND
COVERING MOST OF THE GREATER ANTILLES. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW CONTINUES IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA WEST OF 70W. BROKEN TO
OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO
LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE WEST OF 80W.
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH GOES FROM A LOW CENTER NEAR
30N52W TO 22N57W TO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR GUADELOUPE.
BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FOUND FROM 27N TO 38N BETWEEN
44W AND 57W. UPPER LEVEL HIGH CLOUDS ARE WITHIN 120 NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF 22N53W 29N42W. A 1023 MB SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS
NEAR 35N55W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 13N39W 25N41W 33N43W.
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG 23N25W BEYOND THE CANARY
ISLANDS COVERS THE REST OF THE EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
NORTH OF THE ITCZ AND THE TROPICAL WAVES. BROAD SURFACE
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NORTH OF THE ITCZ
AND TROPICAL WAVES BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE BAHAMA ISLANDS.
$$
MT
AXNT20 KNHC 260610
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT MON JUN 26 2006
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0545 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 28N81W INLAND OVER
EAST-CENTRAL FLORIDA. BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE APPEARS
TO BE CLOSING ITSELF OFF TOWARD THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER
OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. ONE CYCLONIC SWIRL ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY IS CENTERED NEAR 28N77W AND ANOTHER ONE IS NEAR
27N77W. BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS IN THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 20N TO 32N BETWEEN 68W AND THE
FLORIDA/GEORGIA COASTS. ANOTHER MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW
CENTER IS IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 26N87W. BROAD
CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO EAST OF 90W. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IN GENERAL ARE MORE ON THE FLORIDA WEST COAST
THAN ON THE EAST COAST. SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND
FROM THE SOUTHERN TIP OF FLORIDA TO THE SURROUNDING FLORIDA KEYS
NORTH OF 24.5N. AREAS OF DEVELOPING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE A LITTLE BIT NORTHWEST OF TAMPA FLORIDA. THE CLOUD TOP
TEMPERATURES ARE WARMING IN AREAS OF PRECIPITATION IN
SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA AND THE NEARBY FLORIDA PANHANDLE. NUMEROUS
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 23N TO 24N AT THE SOUTHERN
PART OF ANDROS ISLAND BETWEEN 76.5W AND 78.5W. LINGERING BUT
WEAKENING PRECIPITATION IS OVER THE WATERS IN BETWEEN THE CAICOS
ISLANDS AND THE ISLAND OF MAYAGUANA. OTHER ISOLATED MODERATE
SHOWERS ARE FOUND IN THE BAHAMAS FROM 24N TO GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND
BETWEEN 73W AND 80W...AND WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 25N68W
29N73W BEYOND 32N77W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED BETWEEN SOUTHEASTERN CUBA AND HAITI
ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE CYCLONIC FLOW.
A 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC
OCEAN ITCZ NEAR 6N45W...ABOUT 975 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS. SCATTERED
MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IN THE ITCZ
ARE FOUND FROM 2N TO 8N BETWEEN 42W AND 47W.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 40W/41W SOUTH OF 15N
MOVING WEST 15 KT. SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 10N
TO 12N BETWEEN 41W AND 42W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE IN
A LINE FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 36W AND 40W.
A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS PASSING OVER JAMAICA ALONG
77W/78W SOUTH OF 20N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. NO PRECIPITATION
CAN BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE DIRECTLY. UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY
WINDS ARE CUTTING ACROSS THE AREA OF THIS WAVE...AS THE WAVE
MOVES TOWARD BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IN THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA.
...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ 10N14W 8N20W 9N39W 6N48W 6N57W. SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 3N TO 6N BETWEEN 30W AND 36W...AND FROM
7N TO 9N BETWEEN 49W AND 51W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS
TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 6N TO 10N BETWEEN 30W AND
40W...AND ELSEWHERE SOUTH OF 10N WEST OF 30W. ISOLATED MODERATE
SHOWERS ARE FOUND EAST OF 10W...AND FROM 4N TO 10N BETWEEN 10W
AND 30W.
...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE SOUTHERN POINT OF A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH IS
MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE U.S.A. REACHES
CENTRAL LOUISIANA. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE
GULF WATERS WEST OF 90W. THE EASTERN SECTION IS DOMINATED BY
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER NEAR 26N87W. BROAD CYCLONIC
FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO EAST OF 90W.
THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS PASSING OVER JAMAICA ALONG 77W/78W SOUTH OF
20N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. NO PRECIPITATION CAN BE ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS WAVE DIRECTLY. UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS ARE CUTTING
ACROSS THE AREA OF THIS WAVE...AS THE WAVE MOVES TOWARD BROAD
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.
THE PART EAST OF 66W IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE 30N52W-TO-
GUADELOUPE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE NORTH CENTRAL
SECTION IS ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE BAHAMA ISLANDS EAST OF FLORIDA AND
COVERING MOST OF THE GREATER ANTILLES. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW CONTINUES IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA WEST OF 70W. BROKEN TO
OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO
LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE WEST OF 80W.
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH GOES FROM A LOW CENTER NEAR
30N52W TO 22N57W TO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR GUADELOUPE.
BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FOUND FROM 27N TO 38N BETWEEN
44W AND 57W. UPPER LEVEL HIGH CLOUDS ARE WITHIN 120 NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF 22N53W 29N42W. A 1023 MB SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS
NEAR 35N55W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 13N39W 25N41W 33N43W.
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG 23N25W BEYOND THE CANARY
ISLANDS COVERS THE REST OF THE EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
NORTH OF THE ITCZ AND THE TROPICAL WAVES. BROAD SURFACE
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NORTH OF THE ITCZ
AND TROPICAL WAVES BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE BAHAMA ISLANDS.
$$
MT
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000
ABNT20 KNHC 260916
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 AM EDT MON JUN 26 2006
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD AND DIFFUSE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDS OVER THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA. THIS SYSTEM...COUPLED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...IS ENHANCING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY OVER PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE ADJACENT
WATERS. THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BE ASSOCIATED WITH GUSTY WINDS AND
CONTINUED HEAVY RAINS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES
GENERALLY NORTHWARD. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR
AREA...PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NWS FORECAST
OFFICE.
A SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED ABOUT 1075 MILES EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS. SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT
OF THIS SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
TUESDAY.
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
ABNT20 KNHC 260916
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 AM EDT MON JUN 26 2006
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD AND DIFFUSE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDS OVER THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA. THIS SYSTEM...COUPLED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...IS ENHANCING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY OVER PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE ADJACENT
WATERS. THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BE ASSOCIATED WITH GUSTY WINDS AND
CONTINUED HEAVY RAINS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES
GENERALLY NORTHWARD. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR
AREA...PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NWS FORECAST
OFFICE.
A SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED ABOUT 1075 MILES EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS. SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT
OF THIS SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
TUESDAY.
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
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000
AXNT20 KNHC 261109
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON JUN 26 2006
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1045 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 29N84W IN THE NORTHEASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO. BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE HAS CLOSED ITSELF OFF
TOWARD THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. ONE
CYCLONIC SWIRL ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS CENTERED NEAR 28N76W
AND ANOTHER ONE IS NEAR 29N79W. BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONIC FLOW IS IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 20N TO 32N
BETWEEN 68W AND THE FLORIDA/GEORGIA COASTS. ANOTHER MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER IS IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO NEAR
26N87W. BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO EAST OF
90W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
COVER THE ENTIRE FLORIDA WEST COAST EAST OF THE FLORIDA BIG
BEND. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM
26N TO 30N BETWEEN 85W AND 89W. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
BEEN DEVELOPING AND DISSIPATING...AND VICE VERSA...OVER MANY
PARTS OF THE BAHAMA ISLANDS. THE LATEST STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FOUND FROM 22N TO 24N BETWEEN 75W AND 77W IN THE CENTRAL
BAHAMAS. OTHER ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS COVER THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN WATERS FROM 20N TO 30N BETWEEN 74W AND THE SOUTHEASTERN
U.S.A. COAST. STILL MORE ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF 23N69W 26N70W 29N72W BEYOND 32N75W. GUSTY WINDS AND
CONTINUED HEAVY RAINS ARE LIKELY DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS
THIS WHOLE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHWARD. PLEASE CONSULT
FORECASTS AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NWS FORECAST
OFFICE FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA.
A 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC
OCEAN ITCZ NEAR 7N45W...ABOUT 925 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS. STRONG SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN A FEW CELLS FROM 6.5N TO 8N BETWEEN
45W AND 47W...AND FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 42W AND 44W. OTHER
NEARBY PRECIPITATION ALSO IS IN THE ITCZ. SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 42W SOUTH OF 15N
MOVING WEST 15 KT. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN
A FEW CELLS FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 42W AND 44W.
A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE JUST HAS CLEARED JAMAICA ALONG
78W/79W SOUTH OF 20N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. NO PRECIPITATION
CAN BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE DIRECTLY. UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY
WINDS ARE CUTTING ACROSS THE AREA OF THIS WAVE...AS THE WAVE
MOVES TOWARD BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IN THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA.
...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ 11N14W 8N30W 8N40W 6N47W 5N56W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS
TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM 2N TO 10N
BETWEEN 30W AND 40W...AND ELSEWHERE SOUTH OF 10N WEST OF 43W.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND
FROM 4N TO 10N BETWEEN 20W AND 30W...AND FROM 2N TO 4N EAST OF
10W.
...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE SOUTHERN POINT OF A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH IS
MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE U.S.A. REACHES
CENTRAL LOUISIANA. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE
GULF WATERS WEST OF 90W. THE EASTERN SECTION IS DOMINATED
BY THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER NEAR 26N87W.
BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO EAST OF 90W.
THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TROPICAL WAVE JUST CLEARED JAMAICA ALONG 78W/79W SOUTH OF 20N
MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. NO PRECIPITATION CAN BE ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS WAVE DIRECTLY. UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS ARE CUTTING
ACROSS THE AREA OF THIS WAVE...AS THE WAVE MOVES TOWARD BROAD
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.
THE PART EAST OF 66W IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
30N52W-TO-GUADELOUPE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE NORTH
CENTRAL SECTION IS ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE BROAD MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE BAHAMA ISLANDS EAST OF
FLORIDA AND COVERING MOST OF THE GREATER ANTILLES. UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA WEST OF 70W.
NUMEROUS STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE EAST OF NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA
AND EASTERN HONDURAS...AND IN NORTHERN COLOMBIA...SPILLING INTO
THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN WATERS.
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH GOES FROM A LOW CENTER NEAR
30N52W TO 22N57W TO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR GUADELOUPE.
BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FOUND FROM 25N TO 38N BETWEEN
44W AND 57W. UPPER LEVEL HIGH CLOUDS ARE WITHIN 120 NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF 22N53W 29N42W. A 1023 MB SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS
NEAR 36N57W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 13N39W 25N41W 33N43W.
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG 23N25W BEYOND THE CANARY
ISLANDS COVERS THE REST OF THE EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
NORTH OF THE ITCZ AND THE TROPICAL WAVES. BROAD SURFACE
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NORTH OF THE ITCZ
AND TROPICAL WAVES BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE BAHAMA ISLANDS.
$$
MT
AXNT20 KNHC 261109
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON JUN 26 2006
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1045 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 29N84W IN THE NORTHEASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO. BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE HAS CLOSED ITSELF OFF
TOWARD THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. ONE
CYCLONIC SWIRL ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS CENTERED NEAR 28N76W
AND ANOTHER ONE IS NEAR 29N79W. BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONIC FLOW IS IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 20N TO 32N
BETWEEN 68W AND THE FLORIDA/GEORGIA COASTS. ANOTHER MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER IS IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO NEAR
26N87W. BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO EAST OF
90W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
COVER THE ENTIRE FLORIDA WEST COAST EAST OF THE FLORIDA BIG
BEND. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM
26N TO 30N BETWEEN 85W AND 89W. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
BEEN DEVELOPING AND DISSIPATING...AND VICE VERSA...OVER MANY
PARTS OF THE BAHAMA ISLANDS. THE LATEST STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FOUND FROM 22N TO 24N BETWEEN 75W AND 77W IN THE CENTRAL
BAHAMAS. OTHER ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS COVER THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN WATERS FROM 20N TO 30N BETWEEN 74W AND THE SOUTHEASTERN
U.S.A. COAST. STILL MORE ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF 23N69W 26N70W 29N72W BEYOND 32N75W. GUSTY WINDS AND
CONTINUED HEAVY RAINS ARE LIKELY DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS
THIS WHOLE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHWARD. PLEASE CONSULT
FORECASTS AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NWS FORECAST
OFFICE FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA.
A 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC
OCEAN ITCZ NEAR 7N45W...ABOUT 925 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS. STRONG SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN A FEW CELLS FROM 6.5N TO 8N BETWEEN
45W AND 47W...AND FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 42W AND 44W. OTHER
NEARBY PRECIPITATION ALSO IS IN THE ITCZ. SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 42W SOUTH OF 15N
MOVING WEST 15 KT. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN
A FEW CELLS FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 42W AND 44W.
A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE JUST HAS CLEARED JAMAICA ALONG
78W/79W SOUTH OF 20N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. NO PRECIPITATION
CAN BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE DIRECTLY. UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY
WINDS ARE CUTTING ACROSS THE AREA OF THIS WAVE...AS THE WAVE
MOVES TOWARD BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IN THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA.
...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ 11N14W 8N30W 8N40W 6N47W 5N56W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS
TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM 2N TO 10N
BETWEEN 30W AND 40W...AND ELSEWHERE SOUTH OF 10N WEST OF 43W.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND
FROM 4N TO 10N BETWEEN 20W AND 30W...AND FROM 2N TO 4N EAST OF
10W.
...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE SOUTHERN POINT OF A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH IS
MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE U.S.A. REACHES
CENTRAL LOUISIANA. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE
GULF WATERS WEST OF 90W. THE EASTERN SECTION IS DOMINATED
BY THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER NEAR 26N87W.
BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO EAST OF 90W.
THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TROPICAL WAVE JUST CLEARED JAMAICA ALONG 78W/79W SOUTH OF 20N
MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. NO PRECIPITATION CAN BE ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS WAVE DIRECTLY. UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS ARE CUTTING
ACROSS THE AREA OF THIS WAVE...AS THE WAVE MOVES TOWARD BROAD
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.
THE PART EAST OF 66W IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
30N52W-TO-GUADELOUPE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE NORTH
CENTRAL SECTION IS ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE BROAD MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE BAHAMA ISLANDS EAST OF
FLORIDA AND COVERING MOST OF THE GREATER ANTILLES. UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA WEST OF 70W.
NUMEROUS STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE EAST OF NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA
AND EASTERN HONDURAS...AND IN NORTHERN COLOMBIA...SPILLING INTO
THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN WATERS.
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH GOES FROM A LOW CENTER NEAR
30N52W TO 22N57W TO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR GUADELOUPE.
BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FOUND FROM 25N TO 38N BETWEEN
44W AND 57W. UPPER LEVEL HIGH CLOUDS ARE WITHIN 120 NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF 22N53W 29N42W. A 1023 MB SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS
NEAR 36N57W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 13N39W 25N41W 33N43W.
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG 23N25W BEYOND THE CANARY
ISLANDS COVERS THE REST OF THE EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
NORTH OF THE ITCZ AND THE TROPICAL WAVES. BROAD SURFACE
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NORTH OF THE ITCZ
AND TROPICAL WAVES BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE BAHAMA ISLANDS.
$$
MT
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ABNT20 KNHC 261502
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT MON JUN 26 2006
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD AND DIFFUSE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING OVER THE ENTIRE
FLORIDA PENINSULA... AND ADJACENT GULF OF MEXICO AND ATLANTIC
WATERS... IS MOVING NORTHWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH. SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BECOME MORE CONCENTRATED OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...THE FLORIDA STRAITS...AND OFF THE FLORIDA
EAST COAST... AND A SUSTAINED WIND OF 33 MPH WITH A GUST TO 42 MPH
WAS REPORTED ON GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND EARLIER TODAY. THERE ARE SOME
INDICATIONS THAT A SMALL LOW PRESSURE AREA COULD FORM OFF THE
FLORIDA EAST COAST TONIGHT OR TUESDAY MORNING... AND MOVE NORTHWARD
ALONG THE GULFSTREAM TOWARD THE CAROLINAS. HOWEVER... WHETHER OR NOT
ANY FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM OCCURS... THE THREAT FOR
HEAVY RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL CONTINUE OVER
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TODAY AND GRADUALLY SPREAD NORTHWARD INTO
GEORGIA AND THE CAROLINAS TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA... PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL NWS FORECAST OFFICE.
A LARGE TROPICAL WAVE ACCOMPANIED BY A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA IS
LOCATED ABOUT 1000 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD
ISLANDS. SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED AS
IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
TUESDAY.
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
ABNT20 KNHC 261502
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT MON JUN 26 2006
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD AND DIFFUSE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING OVER THE ENTIRE
FLORIDA PENINSULA... AND ADJACENT GULF OF MEXICO AND ATLANTIC
WATERS... IS MOVING NORTHWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH. SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BECOME MORE CONCENTRATED OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...THE FLORIDA STRAITS...AND OFF THE FLORIDA
EAST COAST... AND A SUSTAINED WIND OF 33 MPH WITH A GUST TO 42 MPH
WAS REPORTED ON GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND EARLIER TODAY. THERE ARE SOME
INDICATIONS THAT A SMALL LOW PRESSURE AREA COULD FORM OFF THE
FLORIDA EAST COAST TONIGHT OR TUESDAY MORNING... AND MOVE NORTHWARD
ALONG THE GULFSTREAM TOWARD THE CAROLINAS. HOWEVER... WHETHER OR NOT
ANY FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM OCCURS... THE THREAT FOR
HEAVY RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL CONTINUE OVER
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TODAY AND GRADUALLY SPREAD NORTHWARD INTO
GEORGIA AND THE CAROLINAS TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA... PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL NWS FORECAST OFFICE.
A LARGE TROPICAL WAVE ACCOMPANIED BY A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA IS
LOCATED ABOUT 1000 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD
ISLANDS. SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED AS
IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
TUESDAY.
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
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000
AXNT20 KNHC 261752
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...CORRECTION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT MON JUN 26 2006
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A BROAD AND DIFFUSE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDS OVER THE ENTIRE
FLORIDA PENINSULA...AND ADJACENT GULF OF MEXICO AND ATLANTIC
WATERS...WITH A COUPLE OF 1010 MB LOWS CENTERED ONE NEAR
29N84.5W AND THE OTHER ONE NEAR 30N-83.5W. SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BECOME MORE CONCENTRATED OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...THE FLORIDA STRAITS...AND OFF THE FLORIDA
EAST COAST. DOPPLER RADAR SHOWS SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS OVER
THE STATE OF FLORIDA BUT MAINLY NORTH OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE. THERE
ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT A SMALL LOW PRESSURE AREA COULD FORM
OFF THE FLORIDA EAST COAST TONIGHT OR TUESDAY MORNING...AND MOVE
NORTHWARD ALONG THE GULFSTREAM TOWARD THE CAROLINAS. EVEN IF A
TROPICAL SYSTEM DOES NOT DEVELOP...THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL
AND POSSIBLE LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL CONTINUE OVER THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA TODAY AND GRADUALLY SPREAD NORTHWARD INTO GEORGIA AND
THE CAROLINAS TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ADDED TO THE 12 UTC ANALYSIS ALONG 32W/33W
SOUTH OF 12N BASED ON VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY AND EARLIER QUIKSCAT
PASS. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED
ALONG AND BEHIND THE WAVE AXIS FROM 8N-10N BETWEEN 30W-33W.
A LARGE TROPICAL WAVE ACCOMPANIED BY A WEAK 1013 MB LOW PRESSURE
AREA IS ALONG 43W/44W. SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS
NOT EXPECTED AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH. A
CLUSTER OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ON
THE NORTHERN END OF THE WAVE FROM 10N-12N BETWEEN 42W-45W.
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 79W/80W S OF 20N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WEAK
WAVE SIGNATURE CURVATURE IS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. WAVE
IS BENEATH A BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN...LIMITING
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE. THIS WAVE IS PROBABLY
ENHANCING THE SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY OVER PANAMA.
...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N14W 8N32W 8N40W 4N53W. SCATTERED
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION DOT THE AREA WITHIN 100/150 NM OF
THE AXIS BETWEEN 30W-41W AND WEST OF 46W.
...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD AND DIFFUSE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE COVERS THE ENTIRE
FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE ADJACENT GULF OF MEXICO WITH A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDING 29N84W 25N87W 23N90W. THIS TROUGH CONNECTS THE
TWO LOWS MENTIONED IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN AROUND 60 NM ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE TROUGH.
AN UPPER RIDGE OVER MEXICO EXTENDS OVER THE W GULF W OF 90W. AN
UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE EASTERN GULF AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
ALONG 87W/88W. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE GULF
MAINLY FROM 24N-29N BETWEEN 86W-95W. THE BROAD LOW PRES NEAR
OVER THE NE GULF AND N FLORIDA IS FORECAST TO LIFT N OF AREA
THIS AFTERNOON.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE IS STILL DOMINATING CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE
W/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN. LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW COMBINED WITH A
DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT AND THE PRESENCE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE IS
PRODUCING A BIG CLUSTER OF MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ALONG THE
CARIBBEAN PLAINS OF NICARAGUA FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 82W-84W.
OTHER CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
ARE SEEN FROM 13N-18N BETWEEN 80W-84W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS
ALSO OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS. AN UPPER TROUGH THAT DIPS FROM
THE W ATLC TO OVER HISPANIOLA IS GENERATING WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS ALONG THE S COAST OF DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. THE ATLANTIC
HIGH PRESSURE IS STRENGTHENING ACROSS THE BASIN AND WILL PRODUCE
STRONG TRADE WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL AND WEST CARIBBEAN. GALE
FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BLOW OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA
BEGINNING TONIGHT.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A BROAD AND DIFFUSE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING OVER THE
ENTIRE FLORIDA PENINSULA...AND ADJACENT GULF OF MEXICO AND
ATLANTIC WATERS. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES FOR DETAILS. A BROAD UPPER
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN FLORIDA ACROSS THE BAHAMAS TO OVER
HISPANIOLA. SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS ARE OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...OFF THE FLORIDA EAST COAST AND ALONG A
LINE FROM 30N78W TO 22N71W. A NARROW UPPER RIDGE IS IN BETWEEN
THIS TROUGH AND THE DEEP LAYERED TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC
LOCATED N OF 21N FROM 45W-65W WITH AN UPPER LOW NEAR 31N54W. A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM 31N51W TO 21N67W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITH 120-140 NM SE OF THE
SURFACE BETWEEN 55W-64W. AN UPPER HIGH IN THE E TROPICAL ATLC IS
LOCATED NEAR 13N39W WITH AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING NORTH ALONG
38W/39W. AT THE SURFACE...THE BERMUDA-AZORES HIGH WITH A 1040 MB
CENTER IS WELL NORTH OF THE AREA.
$$
GR
AXNT20 KNHC 261752
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...CORRECTION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT MON JUN 26 2006
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A BROAD AND DIFFUSE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDS OVER THE ENTIRE
FLORIDA PENINSULA...AND ADJACENT GULF OF MEXICO AND ATLANTIC
WATERS...WITH A COUPLE OF 1010 MB LOWS CENTERED ONE NEAR
29N84.5W AND THE OTHER ONE NEAR 30N-83.5W. SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BECOME MORE CONCENTRATED OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...THE FLORIDA STRAITS...AND OFF THE FLORIDA
EAST COAST. DOPPLER RADAR SHOWS SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS OVER
THE STATE OF FLORIDA BUT MAINLY NORTH OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE. THERE
ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT A SMALL LOW PRESSURE AREA COULD FORM
OFF THE FLORIDA EAST COAST TONIGHT OR TUESDAY MORNING...AND MOVE
NORTHWARD ALONG THE GULFSTREAM TOWARD THE CAROLINAS. EVEN IF A
TROPICAL SYSTEM DOES NOT DEVELOP...THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL
AND POSSIBLE LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL CONTINUE OVER THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA TODAY AND GRADUALLY SPREAD NORTHWARD INTO GEORGIA AND
THE CAROLINAS TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ADDED TO THE 12 UTC ANALYSIS ALONG 32W/33W
SOUTH OF 12N BASED ON VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY AND EARLIER QUIKSCAT
PASS. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED
ALONG AND BEHIND THE WAVE AXIS FROM 8N-10N BETWEEN 30W-33W.
A LARGE TROPICAL WAVE ACCOMPANIED BY A WEAK 1013 MB LOW PRESSURE
AREA IS ALONG 43W/44W. SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS
NOT EXPECTED AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH. A
CLUSTER OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ON
THE NORTHERN END OF THE WAVE FROM 10N-12N BETWEEN 42W-45W.
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 79W/80W S OF 20N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WEAK
WAVE SIGNATURE CURVATURE IS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. WAVE
IS BENEATH A BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN...LIMITING
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE. THIS WAVE IS PROBABLY
ENHANCING THE SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY OVER PANAMA.
...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N14W 8N32W 8N40W 4N53W. SCATTERED
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION DOT THE AREA WITHIN 100/150 NM OF
THE AXIS BETWEEN 30W-41W AND WEST OF 46W.
...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD AND DIFFUSE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE COVERS THE ENTIRE
FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE ADJACENT GULF OF MEXICO WITH A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDING 29N84W 25N87W 23N90W. THIS TROUGH CONNECTS THE
TWO LOWS MENTIONED IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN AROUND 60 NM ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE TROUGH.
AN UPPER RIDGE OVER MEXICO EXTENDS OVER THE W GULF W OF 90W. AN
UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE EASTERN GULF AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
ALONG 87W/88W. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE GULF
MAINLY FROM 24N-29N BETWEEN 86W-95W. THE BROAD LOW PRES NEAR
OVER THE NE GULF AND N FLORIDA IS FORECAST TO LIFT N OF AREA
THIS AFTERNOON.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE IS STILL DOMINATING CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE
W/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN. LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW COMBINED WITH A
DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT AND THE PRESENCE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE IS
PRODUCING A BIG CLUSTER OF MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ALONG THE
CARIBBEAN PLAINS OF NICARAGUA FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 82W-84W.
OTHER CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
ARE SEEN FROM 13N-18N BETWEEN 80W-84W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS
ALSO OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS. AN UPPER TROUGH THAT DIPS FROM
THE W ATLC TO OVER HISPANIOLA IS GENERATING WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS ALONG THE S COAST OF DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. THE ATLANTIC
HIGH PRESSURE IS STRENGTHENING ACROSS THE BASIN AND WILL PRODUCE
STRONG TRADE WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL AND WEST CARIBBEAN. GALE
FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BLOW OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA
BEGINNING TONIGHT.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A BROAD AND DIFFUSE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING OVER THE
ENTIRE FLORIDA PENINSULA...AND ADJACENT GULF OF MEXICO AND
ATLANTIC WATERS. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES FOR DETAILS. A BROAD UPPER
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN FLORIDA ACROSS THE BAHAMAS TO OVER
HISPANIOLA. SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS ARE OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...OFF THE FLORIDA EAST COAST AND ALONG A
LINE FROM 30N78W TO 22N71W. A NARROW UPPER RIDGE IS IN BETWEEN
THIS TROUGH AND THE DEEP LAYERED TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC
LOCATED N OF 21N FROM 45W-65W WITH AN UPPER LOW NEAR 31N54W. A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM 31N51W TO 21N67W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITH 120-140 NM SE OF THE
SURFACE BETWEEN 55W-64W. AN UPPER HIGH IN THE E TROPICAL ATLC IS
LOCATED NEAR 13N39W WITH AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING NORTH ALONG
38W/39W. AT THE SURFACE...THE BERMUDA-AZORES HIGH WITH A 1040 MB
CENTER IS WELL NORTH OF THE AREA.
$$
GR
0 likes
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GeneratorPower
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 1648
- Age: 45
- Joined: Sun Dec 18, 2005 11:48 pm
- Location: Huntsville, AL
000
ABNT20 KNHC 262119
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT MON JUN 26 2006
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ACCOMPANIED BY OCCASIONAL GUSTY WINDS...
CONTINUE OVER THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA AND EASTWARD INTO THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC FOR A FEW HUNDRED MILES...IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
BROAD AND DIFFUSE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. ALTHOUGH THIS SYSTEM HAS
NOT BECOME ANY BETTER ORGANIZED THIS AFTERNOON...IT IS STILL
EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS NORTHWARD TOWARD
GEORGIA AND THE CAROLINAS OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA... PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL NWS FORECAST OFFICE.
A LARGE TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED ABOUT 900 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF
THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS. SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH THIS SYSTEM
REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED AND DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...IS EXPECTED TO
BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS THE WAVE CONTINUES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO
20 MPH.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
TUESDAY.
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
ABNT20 KNHC 262119
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT MON JUN 26 2006
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ACCOMPANIED BY OCCASIONAL GUSTY WINDS...
CONTINUE OVER THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA AND EASTWARD INTO THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC FOR A FEW HUNDRED MILES...IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
BROAD AND DIFFUSE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. ALTHOUGH THIS SYSTEM HAS
NOT BECOME ANY BETTER ORGANIZED THIS AFTERNOON...IT IS STILL
EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS NORTHWARD TOWARD
GEORGIA AND THE CAROLINAS OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA... PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL NWS FORECAST OFFICE.
A LARGE TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED ABOUT 900 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF
THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS. SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH THIS SYSTEM
REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED AND DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...IS EXPECTED TO
BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS THE WAVE CONTINUES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO
20 MPH.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
TUESDAY.
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
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bvigal
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 2276
- Joined: Sun Jul 24, 2005 8:49 am
- Location: British Virgin Islands
- Contact:
000
AXNT20 KNHC 262330
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT MON JUN 26 2006
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2245 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDS OVER THE NE GULF...THE SE US
INCLUDING MOST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...AND THE W ATLC W OF
80W WITH A 1010 MB LOW OVER S GEORGIA AND A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDING SW INTO THE GULF ALONG 29N84W TO 23N91W. AREA OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION COVERS THE AREA
FROM 26N-30N W OF 78W TO OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. BROAD AREA
OF SHOWERS/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS COVERS THE AREA FROM 24N-30N
BETWEEN 73W-84W AND INLAND OVER GEORGIA THROUGH THE CAROLINAS TO
AS FAR N AS NEW ENGLAND. TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME...HOWEVER HEAVY RAINS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE AREA TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 34W/35W S OF 11N MOVING W 10 KT.
LOW-AMPLITUDE WAVE IS WELL-DEFINED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. SHOWER
OR CONVECTION ACTIVITY IS WITHIN THE ITCZ.
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 46W/47W S OF 13N MOVING W 10-15 KT. BROAD
LOW/MID LEVEL SIGNATURE CURVATURE IS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY WITH EMBEDDED SWIRLS WITHIN THE ITCZ AXIS. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-14N BETWEEN
44W-48W.
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 81W S OF 18N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WEAK LOW
LEVEL SIGNATURE CURVATURE IS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. WAVE
IS BENEATH THE W PORTION OF A BROAD UPPER RIDGE THAT IS OVER THE
CARIBBEAN.THIS IS ADVECTING TROPICAL MOISTURE N OVER CENTRAL
AMERICA GIVING THE APPEARANCE THAT THE CONVECTION IS W OF THE
WAVE AXIS.
...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N12W 6N22W 9N45W 7N60W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 NM OF THE AXIS
FROM 22W-26W AND WITHIN 60/75 NM OF 9N FROM 29W-32W. SCATTERED
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION DOT THE AREA WITHIN
250/300 NM OF THE AXIS FROM 30W-46W.
...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD DEEP LAYERED TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF WHICH THE 1010 MB LOW IN THE
SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. AN UPPER RIDGE OVER MEXICO IS ANCHORED
JUST N OF ACAPULCO EXTENDS OVER THE W GULF W OF 91W. AN UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE W CARIBBEAN EXTENDS INTO THE SE GULF S OF 23N E
OF 88W. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE FAR E GULF
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW/TROUGH IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE W CARIBBEAN WITH THE AXIS ALONG 79W
COVERING THE AREA TO 66W. TROPICAL MOISTURE IS BEING ADVECTED N
OVER CENTRAL AMERICA GENERATING AN AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE/
STRONG CONVECTION S OF 14N W OF 80W AND S OF 11N W OF 78W TO
INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA WITH SHOWERS/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
COVERING A MUCH LARGER AREA W OF 80W. AN UPPER TROUGH THAT
EXTENDS SW FROM THE W ATLC OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE LESSER
ANTILLES IS GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION INLAND OVER CUBA AND HISPANIOLA. THE REMAINDER
OF THE CARIBBEAN IS MOSTLY CLOUD AND SHOWER FREE.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE FOCUS OF TODAYS WEATHER IS THE 1010 MB LOW INLAND OVER S
GEORGIA IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. A UPPER LOW/TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM PUERTO RICO NE TO THE CAROLINAS ANCHORED JUST OFF
THE GEORGIA COAST NEAR 31N80W. A VERY NARROW UPPER RIDGE IS TO
THE E SEPARATING THE TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC FROM THE DEEP
LAYERED TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC. THIS UPPER TROUGH IS N OF
22N FROM 46W-67W WITH AN UPPER LOW NEAR 30N54W. A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM 31N50W ALONG 25N58W TO 20N65W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 200 NM S OF THE TROUGH
FROM 53W-62W AND N OF 27N FROM 46W-54W. AN LARGE UPPER HIGH IN
THE TROPICAL ATLC IS LOCATED NEAR 13N38W WITH AN UPPER RIDGE
COVERING THE AREA FROM 29W-48W. AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE NE
ATLC N OF 23N E OF 29W. AT THE SURFACE...BROAD HIGH PRESSURE
COVERS MOST OF THE ATLC ANCHORED BY 1037 MB HIGH NW OF THE
AZORES.
$$
WALLACE
AXNT20 KNHC 262330
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT MON JUN 26 2006
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2245 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDS OVER THE NE GULF...THE SE US
INCLUDING MOST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...AND THE W ATLC W OF
80W WITH A 1010 MB LOW OVER S GEORGIA AND A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDING SW INTO THE GULF ALONG 29N84W TO 23N91W. AREA OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION COVERS THE AREA
FROM 26N-30N W OF 78W TO OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. BROAD AREA
OF SHOWERS/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS COVERS THE AREA FROM 24N-30N
BETWEEN 73W-84W AND INLAND OVER GEORGIA THROUGH THE CAROLINAS TO
AS FAR N AS NEW ENGLAND. TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME...HOWEVER HEAVY RAINS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE AREA TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 34W/35W S OF 11N MOVING W 10 KT.
LOW-AMPLITUDE WAVE IS WELL-DEFINED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. SHOWER
OR CONVECTION ACTIVITY IS WITHIN THE ITCZ.
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 46W/47W S OF 13N MOVING W 10-15 KT. BROAD
LOW/MID LEVEL SIGNATURE CURVATURE IS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY WITH EMBEDDED SWIRLS WITHIN THE ITCZ AXIS. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-14N BETWEEN
44W-48W.
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 81W S OF 18N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WEAK LOW
LEVEL SIGNATURE CURVATURE IS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. WAVE
IS BENEATH THE W PORTION OF A BROAD UPPER RIDGE THAT IS OVER THE
CARIBBEAN.THIS IS ADVECTING TROPICAL MOISTURE N OVER CENTRAL
AMERICA GIVING THE APPEARANCE THAT THE CONVECTION IS W OF THE
WAVE AXIS.
...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N12W 6N22W 9N45W 7N60W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 NM OF THE AXIS
FROM 22W-26W AND WITHIN 60/75 NM OF 9N FROM 29W-32W. SCATTERED
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION DOT THE AREA WITHIN
250/300 NM OF THE AXIS FROM 30W-46W.
...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD DEEP LAYERED TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF WHICH THE 1010 MB LOW IN THE
SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. AN UPPER RIDGE OVER MEXICO IS ANCHORED
JUST N OF ACAPULCO EXTENDS OVER THE W GULF W OF 91W. AN UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE W CARIBBEAN EXTENDS INTO THE SE GULF S OF 23N E
OF 88W. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE FAR E GULF
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW/TROUGH IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE W CARIBBEAN WITH THE AXIS ALONG 79W
COVERING THE AREA TO 66W. TROPICAL MOISTURE IS BEING ADVECTED N
OVER CENTRAL AMERICA GENERATING AN AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE/
STRONG CONVECTION S OF 14N W OF 80W AND S OF 11N W OF 78W TO
INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA WITH SHOWERS/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
COVERING A MUCH LARGER AREA W OF 80W. AN UPPER TROUGH THAT
EXTENDS SW FROM THE W ATLC OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE LESSER
ANTILLES IS GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION INLAND OVER CUBA AND HISPANIOLA. THE REMAINDER
OF THE CARIBBEAN IS MOSTLY CLOUD AND SHOWER FREE.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE FOCUS OF TODAYS WEATHER IS THE 1010 MB LOW INLAND OVER S
GEORGIA IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. A UPPER LOW/TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM PUERTO RICO NE TO THE CAROLINAS ANCHORED JUST OFF
THE GEORGIA COAST NEAR 31N80W. A VERY NARROW UPPER RIDGE IS TO
THE E SEPARATING THE TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC FROM THE DEEP
LAYERED TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC. THIS UPPER TROUGH IS N OF
22N FROM 46W-67W WITH AN UPPER LOW NEAR 30N54W. A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM 31N50W ALONG 25N58W TO 20N65W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 200 NM S OF THE TROUGH
FROM 53W-62W AND N OF 27N FROM 46W-54W. AN LARGE UPPER HIGH IN
THE TROPICAL ATLC IS LOCATED NEAR 13N38W WITH AN UPPER RIDGE
COVERING THE AREA FROM 29W-48W. AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE NE
ATLC N OF 23N E OF 29W. AT THE SURFACE...BROAD HIGH PRESSURE
COVERS MOST OF THE ATLC ANCHORED BY 1037 MB HIGH NW OF THE
AZORES.
$$
WALLACE
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Weatherfreak000
000
ABNT20 KNHC 270216
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 PM EDT MON JUN 26 2006
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF FLORIDA...
GEORGIA...AND THE ADJACENT ATLANTIC WATERS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
BROAD AND DIFFUSE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. ALTHOUGH THIS SYSTEM IS
SHOWING NO SIGNS OF DEVELOPMENT...IT IS STILL EXPECTED TO BRING
HEAVY RAINS AND OCCASIONAL GUSTY WINDS NORTHWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS
OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO
YOUR AREA... PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NWS
FORECAST OFFICE.
A LARGE TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED ABOUT 850 MILES EAST OF THE
SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS. SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH THIS SYSTEM REMAINS
POORLY ORGANIZED AND DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW
TO OCCUR AS THE WAVE CONTINUES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
ABNT20 KNHC 270216
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 PM EDT MON JUN 26 2006
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF FLORIDA...
GEORGIA...AND THE ADJACENT ATLANTIC WATERS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
BROAD AND DIFFUSE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. ALTHOUGH THIS SYSTEM IS
SHOWING NO SIGNS OF DEVELOPMENT...IT IS STILL EXPECTED TO BRING
HEAVY RAINS AND OCCASIONAL GUSTY WINDS NORTHWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS
OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO
YOUR AREA... PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NWS
FORECAST OFFICE.
A LARGE TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED ABOUT 850 MILES EAST OF THE
SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS. SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH THIS SYSTEM REMAINS
POORLY ORGANIZED AND DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW
TO OCCUR AS THE WAVE CONTINUES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
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