Phil Klotzbach/ William Gray April Forecast=17/9/5

[weatherwoman132]

has he ever predicted this much in april before?

[OuterBanker]

Yes JS Tx seems also to be a target, as well as west coast Fl and La. But one good sign is there were a lot of fish too.

Here is updated map with Apr forcast years, all named storms.

[HurricaneHunter914]

What's the percentage of Florida getting hit?

[SouthFloridawx]

PROBABILITIES FOR AT LEAST ONE MAJOR (CATEGORY 3-4-5) HURRICANE LANDFALL ON EACH OF THE FOLLOWING COASTAL AREAS:



1) Entire U.S. coastline - 81% (average for last century is 52%)



2) U.S. East Coast Including Peninsula Florida - 64% (average for last century is 31%)



3) Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle westward to Brownsville - 47% (average for last century is 30%)



4) Above-average major hurricane landfall risk in the Caribbean

[Scorpion]

Seems to me that the Gulf will be significantly less active than in 2004 and 2005. I am doubting that there will be a major landfall there this year.

[hicksta]

Scorpion, you have got to be joking. Im almost posotive there will be. Any hurricane forcaster knows, you start low and work your way up. He will make his forcast numbers grow. Also if yall heard the NOAA Say you can NOT predict wether it will be a NC/SC or another gulf year. You cant do it, all you can do is wait and see.

[MiamiensisWx]

You also can't say it will be a Carolinas year because of La Nina; storms have hit Florida during La Nina years, too.

[Ivanhater]

Seems to me that the Gulf will be significantly less active than in 2004 and 2005. I am doubting that there will be a major landfall there this year.

actually, 47% is as high as I remember seeing it this early for the gulf

[vbhoutex]

Seems to me that the Gulf will be significantly less active than in 2004 and 2005. I am doubting that there will be a major landfall there this year.

What exactly are you basing this statement on? There are quite a few out there that already disagree withyour statement. Please explain furhter.

[HurricaneHunter914]

When Dr.Gray said we're in an active period I'm sure he meant there will be at least more than 2 major hurricane landfalls this year. Keep that in mind Scorpion.

[Brent]

1) Entire U.S. coastline - 81% (average for last century is 52%)

81% chance of a MAJOR hurricane landfall.

[CHRISTY]

It was certainly said of 2005 after 04. But thats why they say its 'statistically' unlikely. Nature couldnt care less about statistics and what they predict. If it's going to be an active season, it will be active regardless of what happened last season.

[wxman57]

I've done considerable research on Gulf of Mexico (and NW Gulf) hurricanes over the past 100+ years. Here's a graphic I made showing the number of Gulf hurricanes and Gulf major hurricanes from 1900-2005 (106 years). Note how much of an anomaly 2005 was.

On average a major hurricane (red lines) moves into or develops over the Gulf of Mexico about once every 2 years. Recent anomalies include 2 major hurricanes in 2002 and 2004 and 5 in 2005. For the most part, though, the number of seasons with more than 1 major hurricane in the Gulf is rare. Even during the very active cycle from the mid 40s through the late 60s, there were only a few years with 2 major hurricanes in the Gulf.

The blue lines represent any hurricane in the Gulf for the past 106 years. Generally, the 5-year average is about 1-2 hurricanes in the Gulf per season.

So don't start thinking that Gulf seasons like 2004-2005 are likely to become the norm, as climatology strongly suggests otherwise. I expect that there may be one major hurricane in the Gulf in 2006, and one possibly threatening FL to the Carolinas. But with the significantly cooler Atlantic SSTs (vs. this time last year) and a stornger Bermuda high, I'm surprised that Phil (& Dr. Gray) didn't lower their projection of 17 named storms.

[greeng13]

wxman 57 i have a question:

would that include hurricanes that were majors before they entered the Gulf...i.e. a Cape Verde that reached major status in the Atlantic and then crossed over into the gulf where it never regained major strength...i.e. the hurricane is still considered to have been a major at one point in time but never in the GOM?

[wxman57]

wxman 57 i have a question:

would that include hurricanes that were majors before they entered the Gulf...i.e. a Cape Verde that reached major status in the Atlantic and then crossed over into the gulf where it never regained major strength...i.e. the hurricane is still considered to have been a major at one point in time but never in the GOM?

Good question. To be included as a major hurricane in the Gulf, the hurricane HAD to be a major hurricane while IN the Gulf. Hurricanes what weakened from a Cat 3-4-5 before entering the Gulf were recorded just as hurricanes (Cat 1-2) in the Gulf (unless they weakened to a TS before reaching the Gulf).

[greeng13]

OK wxman57 and thank you for your response!

[CHRISTY]

wxman 57 i have a question:

would that include hurricanes that were majors before they entered the Gulf...i.e. a Cape Verde that reached major status in the Atlantic and then crossed over into the gulf where it never regained major strength...i.e. the hurricane is still considered to have been a major at one point in time but never in the GOM?

hey wxman 57 with dr grays forcast out today is he says that there might be a strong bermuda high or a weak one?because the years he used as anolog ones ,1996,1996,1999,2003 look like fish seasons to me is he trying to say something?

[CHRISTY]

OuterBanker, DID U GET MY PM?

[brunota2003]

wxman 57 i have a question:

would that include hurricanes that were majors before they entered the Gulf...i.e. a Cape Verde that reached major status in the Atlantic and then crossed over into the gulf where it never regained major strength...i.e. the hurricane is still considered to have been a major at one point in time but never in the GOM?

hey wxman 57 with dr grays forcast out today is he says that there might be a strong bermuda high or a weak one?because the years he used as anolog ones ,1996,1996,1999,2003 look like fish seasons to me is he trying to say something?

please dont say all those were fish seasons...one word for all three of those years...NC...Bertha, Fran (1996) Floyd (1999) Isabel (2003) were definatly NOT fishys...

EDIT: these are the tracking maps for 1996, 1999, and 2003:

1996:

1999:

2003:

This isnt pointed at only Christy, just throwing these out there for reference...

[CHRISTY]

wxman 57 i have a question:

would that include hurricanes that were majors before they entered the Gulf...i.e. a Cape Verde that reached major status in the Atlantic and then crossed over into the gulf where it never regained major strength...i.e. the hurricane is still considered to have been a major at one point in time but never in the GOM?

hey wxman 57 with dr grays forcast out today is he says that there might be a strong bermuda high or a weak one?because the years he used as anolog ones ,1996,1996,1999,2003 look like fish seasons to me is he trying to say something?

please dont say all those were fish seasons...one word for all three of those years...NC...Bertha, Fran (1996) Floyd (1999) Isabel (2003) were definatly NOT fishys...

EDIT: these are the tracking maps for 1996, 1999, and 2003:

1996:

1999:

2003:

This isnt pointed at only Christy, just throwing these out there for reference...

what i meant was that there werent many florida strikes during those seasons!but yes very active for NC.