98L,TD may be forming

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Post Reply
Message
Author
User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 148502
Age: 69
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

#101 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jul 10, 2005 6:30 am

HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (AL982005) ON 20050710 0600 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050710 0600 050710 1800 050711 0600 050711 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 10.9N 40.4W 11.3N 42.9W 11.4N 45.4W 11.4N 47.9W
BAMM 10.9N 40.4W 11.3N 42.6W 11.3N 44.9W 11.4N 47.3W
A98E 10.9N 40.4W 11.4N 43.1W 11.8N 45.7W 12.1N 48.4W
LBAR 10.9N 40.4W 11.5N 42.9W 12.2N 45.5W 13.1N 48.4W
SHIP 20KTS 24KTS 30KTS 37KTS
DSHP 20KTS 24KTS 30KTS 37KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050712 0600 050713 0600 050714 0600 050715 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 11.3N 50.6W 11.3N 56.1W 11.8N 61.7W 13.0N 66.9W
BAMM 11.4N 49.8W 11.7N 54.3W 12.4N 58.4W 13.7N 62.3W
A98E 12.0N 50.9W 12.8N 55.7W 13.3N 60.3W 13.8N 65.1W
LBAR 13.7N 51.2W 15.1N 56.8W 16.1N 62.0W 13.0N 65.4W
SHIP 46KTS 58KTS 65KTS 67KTS
DSHP 46KTS 58KTS 65KTS 67KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 10.9N LONCUR = 40.4W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 13KT
LATM12 = 10.7N LONM12 = 37.9W DIRM12 = 282DEG SPDM12 = 12KT
LATM24 = 10.2N LONM24 = 35.8W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1011MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

Image

Image

Looks better this morning than on yesterday.

Image
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
HURAKAN
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 46086
Age: 38
Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
Location: Key West, FL
Contact:
Contact HURAKAN

#102 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Jul 10, 2005 6:45 am

The tropical wave (98L) is looking much better organized than 24 hours ago, and continues showing signs of development with a possible circulation. Thereafter, tropical cyclone formation is possible in the next 48 hours. Of course, after Dennis is set and done!
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
jabber
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 688
Joined: Mon Mar 24, 2003 5:36 pm
Location: Raleigh, NC (former Boynton Beach, Fl)

#103 Postby jabber » Sun Jul 10, 2005 6:55 am

She does look pretty good today. I bet for a depression later today.
0 likes   
Top
Matt-hurricanewatcher

#104 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Sun Jul 10, 2005 6:58 am

If it was not for Dennis this would be a depression. The quickscats say it has a LLC. Wahoo lets add another name.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 148502
Age: 69
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

#105 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jul 10, 2005 7:07 am

Image

Impressive quickScat of 98.
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
Top
User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 148502
Age: 69
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

#106 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jul 10, 2005 7:20 am

10/1145 UTC 10.7N 40.9W TOO WEAK 98 -- Atlantic Ocean

The first SSD Sat Estimate for 98.
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
Top
User avatar
HURAKAN
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 46086
Age: 38
Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
Location: Key West, FL
Contact:
Contact HURAKAN

#107 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Jul 10, 2005 7:26 am

If this organization trend continues and Dennis goes away, TD 5 will be here shortly!
0 likes   
Top
Matt-hurricanewatcher

#108 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Sun Jul 10, 2005 7:27 am

I'v seen worst be upgraded. I think it has enough oreganizion with that clear LLC on quickscat.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Stratusxpeye
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 686
Joined: Tue Jun 07, 2005 10:40 am
Location: Tampa, Florida
Contact:
Contact Stratusxpeye

#109 Postby Stratusxpeye » Sun Jul 10, 2005 7:31 am

HURAKAN wrote:If this organization trend continues and Dennis goes away, TD 5 will be here shortly!


May I ask why dennis would have to go away in order to make this a TD? Is this bc NHC is wayyyy too busy with dennis?
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
HURAKAN
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 46086
Age: 38
Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
Location: Key West, FL
Contact:
Contact HURAKAN

#110 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Jul 10, 2005 7:31 am

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:I'v seen worst be upgraded. I think it has enough oreganizion with that clear LLC on quickscat.


Until the Dvorak numbers don't show TD intensity they will probably not upgrate it.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 148502
Age: 69
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

#111 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jul 10, 2005 7:35 am

Yes T Numbers at least have to be 1.5-2.0 to be a TD.But slowly it will get there.
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
Top
User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 148502
Age: 69
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

#112 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jul 10, 2005 8:14 am

Image

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (AL982005) ON 20050710 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050710 1200 050711 0000 050711 1200 050712 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 10.7N 41.1W 11.0N 43.6W 11.1N 46.2W 11.1N 48.8W
BAMM 10.7N 41.1W 10.9N 43.4W 11.1N 45.9W 11.2N 48.3W
A98E 10.7N 41.1W 11.0N 43.4W 11.4N 45.8W 12.1N 48.3W
LBAR 10.7N 41.1W 11.1N 43.6W 11.9N 46.4W 12.8N 49.3W
SHIP 20KTS 24KTS 30KTS 37KTS
DSHP 20KTS 24KTS 30KTS 37KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050712 1200 050713 1200 050714 1200 050715 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 11.1N 51.5W 11.2N 57.3W 12.2N 62.8W 13.9N 68.0W
BAMM 11.4N 50.8W 11.9N 55.7W 13.4N 59.9W 15.6N 64.3W
A98E 12.6N 50.7W 14.3N 55.7W 16.0N 60.6W 18.0N 65.5W
LBAR 13.3N 52.5W 14.3N 58.7W 15.4N 63.7W 18.2N 66.0W
SHIP 45KTS 57KTS 61KTS 64KTS
DSHP 45KTS 57KTS 61KTS 64KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 10.7N LONCUR = 41.1W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 11KT
LATM12 = 10.5N LONM12 = 38.9W DIRM12 = 275DEG SPDM12 = 11KT
LATM24 = 10.3N LONM24 = 36.7W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1011MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

LBAR and AE98 hits where I am but of course that will change.
0 likes   
Top
Duffy
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 294
Joined: Sat Aug 28, 2004 5:58 pm
Location: Brunswick, Maine, USA

#113 Postby Duffy » Sun Jul 10, 2005 8:50 am

Looks like we got Emily on the Way and maybe something else behind that coming off Africa? Franklin down the road Perhaps?
Wohooooo keep em comin !!!!!!!
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 148502
Age: 69
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

#114 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jul 10, 2005 8:52 am

Image
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
Top
Matt-hurricanewatcher

#115 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Sun Jul 10, 2005 8:52 am

I'm going to start focusing my energy on this one. Wow the one bethind it looks even better.
0 likes   
Top
Scorpion

#116 Postby Scorpion » Sun Jul 10, 2005 8:53 am

Whats that behind 98? Looks very powerful.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
wxwatcher91
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1606
Joined: Wed Jul 06, 2005 2:43 pm
Location: Keene, NH
Contact:
Contact wxwatcher91

#117 Postby wxwatcher91 » Sun Jul 10, 2005 8:58 am

The only thing about the one behind 98 is that I think a lot of the convection is associated with the ITCZ... I dunno we'll see
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
abajan
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 4305
Age: 61
Joined: Sun Sep 07, 2003 5:10 am
Location: Barbados

#118 Postby abajan » Sun Jul 10, 2005 9:02 am

Scorpion wrote:Whats that behind 98? Looks very powerful.

It looks like just an active area of the ITC to me. Pretty normal.

Maybe I'm missing something that others are seeing.
0 likes   
Top
Duffy
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 294
Joined: Sat Aug 28, 2004 5:58 pm
Location: Brunswick, Maine, USA

#119 Postby Duffy » Sun Jul 10, 2005 9:15 am

i read somewhere that Bastardi devolops BOTH Systems
0 likes   
Top
Guest

#120 Postby Guest » Sun Jul 10, 2005 10:09 am

Image
0 likes   
Top
Post Reply

Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: ncforecaster89 and 71 guests