Dennis Advisorys 7 AM,Cat 2 105 mph

[cycloneye]

And Brent they also are issuing position estimates every hour that no advisorys are posted.

[Brent]

And Brent they also are issuing position estimates every hour that no advisorys are posted.

Yeah I know. I saw it.

[mikey mike]

Between all that squabbling about advisory times,did anyone notice Dennis is wobbling more west than north?

[drudd1]

Yep, I did. Same story different day. I want to see what happens over the next 12 hours or so before I get excited about anything. I for one am wobbled out

[soonertwister]

And I need to say one thing more. I believe that the text that I read was this, which is not just a position advisory. This is at wunderground.com.

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/at ... ublic.html

It is titled "Hurricane Dennis Intermediate Advisory Number 17a".

I have no idea where the original text went, but that is in a similar format to an advisory, without the header information.

And in the original post it was referred to as an advisory, not a position statement.

Wow, this is too much. I make one statement about a sticky post saying that all unofficial advisories and other matter that is posted in an official-looking format should be posted with a disclaimer at the top. The original post is pulled, another official text is posted, and I'm suddenly completely wrong.

Why pick on me? Don't you have a hurricane to follow? Where is the original post now?

[gkrangers]

Wunderground usually posts the official advisory on their website before its on the NHC site. So people copy/paste it from there. That was the official NHC advisory....so I don't see what the problem with it was.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Soonertwister the nhc Advisories are posted on there an many other places.

[Innotech]

Between all that squabbling about advisory times,did anyone notice Dennis is wobbling more west than north?

Its more of a trend if the last 8 frames or so are any indication...
NOt a huge trend but definitely west of track.

[Rainband]

Typical with land interaction

[soonertwister]

Of course the official advisories are also posted many other places. I was under the impression that any official-looking text NOT from the NHC (i.e., from anywhere else than nhc.noaa.gov) was supposed to be preceded by a disclaimer.

It would have been better if the original post (now gone) had said "wunderground has posted the text of the official NHC interim advisory, but please refer to the original text at NHC for confirmation."

If I was confused, and I've been on this board for about three years and another weather board before that, what about people who don't visit but when they are threatened by bad weather in their neighborhood?

Maybe I misunderstood the intent of the original sticky about "official-looking" texts that are unofficial. But I personally would be wary of any text that was pasted from a source other than NHC, and which did not have a link to the official NHC text. People are people, we all make mistakes, and some people are more accurate than others.

I'll just leave it there. I had no intention to cause some sort of a row. I take weather as seriously as the next person. I have my own "weather personality" that may differ from others, but that's what makes this place interesting. Be a little forgiving with me. As you can see, I'm not a mega post count kind of person here. I come here for tropical storms, at other times I may drop in for a little while, but not often.

[Lowpressure]

Thank you Rainband, we will have no real idea what heading this thing is on until it enters the Gulf and trends. Everyone should pay attention to this Hurricane. Be careful for what you wish for!!

[Rainband]

Thank you Rainband, we will have no real idea what heading this thing is on until it enters the Gulf and trends. Everyone should pay attention to this Hurricane. Be careful for what you wish for!!

That wins post of the YEAR imho.

[gkrangers]

Nobody is yelling at you or anything...so stop acting like we're being mean.

The NHC transmits the data to weather outlets...then the weather outlets post it on their websites. This is probably done without human interaction. The information is the same and the official NHC product.

The wunderground text is as official as the NHC website.

But thats just my opinion...

[Brent]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE DENNIS INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 17B
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
9 PM EDT FRI JUL 08 2005

...DANGEROUS MAJOR HURRICANE DENNIS APPROACHING HAVANA AND MATANZAS
IN WESTERN CUBA...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR CUBA FOR THE PROVINCES OF LA
HABANA...CIUDAD DE LA HABANA...MATANZAS...VILLA CLARA...
CIENFUEGOS...SANCTI SPIRITUS...CIEGO DE AVILA...CAMAGUEY...LAS
TUNAS...GRANMA...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...HOLGUIN AND GUANTANAMO. A
HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLE OF YOUTH AND THE
PROVINCE OF PINAR DEL RIO. EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE HURRICANE WARNING
AREA WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER TONIGHT.

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS
FROM THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE WESTWARD TO THE DRY TORTUGAS. A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE FLORIDA KEYS...EAST OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE TO
OCEAN REEF AND FLORIDA BAY.

A HURRICANE WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEASTERN
GULF COAST FROM THE STEINHATCHEE RIVER WESTWARD TO THE MOUTH OF THE
PEARL RIVER.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST
FROM ANCLOTE KEY SOUTHWARD...AND ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM
GOLDEN BEACH SOUTHWARD.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST
FROM NORTH OF ANCLOTE KEY NORTHWARD TO EAST OF THE STEINHATCHEE
RIVER.

A HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE OR
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...RESPECTIVELY...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION IN THE HURRICANE
WARNING AREA. A HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT
HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...RESPECTIVELY...ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...FLORIDA...AND THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 9 PM EDT...0100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DENNIS WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 22.8 NORTH... LONGITUDE 81.7 WEST OR ABOUT 45 MILES
... 75 KM... EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HAVANA CUBA AND ABOUT 120 MILES...
195 KM...SOUTH OF KEY WEST FLORIDA.

DENNIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...23 KM/HR. ON
THIS TRACK...THE CENTER SHOULD PASS NEAR HAVANA AND MATANZAS AND
EMERGE INTO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 115 MPH...185
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THIS MAKES DENNIS A CATEGORY 3
HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME FURTHER WEAKENING
IS POSSIBLE WHILE THE CENTER REMAINS OVER CUBA. HOWEVER...DENNIS IS
EXPECTED TO REGAIN MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS AS IT EMERGES OVER THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 65 MILES...100 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 160 MILES...260 KM. WINDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN THE FLORIDA
KEYS...WITH THE NOAA AUTOMATED STATION AT SOMBRERO KEY RECENTLY
REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 59 MPH WITH A GUST TO 67 MPH AT AN
ELEVATION OF 160 FEET.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 957 MB...28.26 INCHES.

DENNIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO
10 INCHES OVER CUBA...WITH LOCAL 15 INCH AMOUNTS. THESE RAINS COULD
PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. RAINFALL OF 4
TO 8 INCHES IS EXPECTED OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 5 TO 10 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...ARE STILL POSSIBLE
IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS ALONG THE SOUTH-CENTRAL COAST OF CUBA.
HIGHER VALUES OF STORM WILL BE POSSIBLE IN BAYS AND INLETS. A
STORM SURGE OF 3 TO 6 FEET IS POSSIBLE IN THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS. A
STORM SURGE OF 4 TO 7 FEET IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF
FLORIDA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.

ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE
SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO SATURDAY.

REPEATING THE 9 PM EDT POSITION...22.8 N... 81.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...115 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 957 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 PM EDT.

FORECASTER BEVEN

[soonertwister]

Nobody is yelling at you or anything...so stop acting like we're being mean.

The NHC transmits the data to weather outlets...then the weather outlets post it on their websites. This is probably done without human interaction. The information is the same and the official NHC product.

The wunderground text is as official as the NHC website.

But thats just my opinion...

Well, several people telling me that it is an official product, and then it is a position estimate, and the original post is changed or disappeared; I guess I shouldn't feel like people are jumping on me.

I wouldn't have a problem if websites had official mirrors of the NHC documents, which would facilitate the more rapid and secure dissemination of their information to the public.

But when someone takes the official product and strips off the header so as to present it as their own flavor of the official NHC product, then I have a serious problem with that. And that is my opinion.

If I was the NHC I would require anyone using the text of my product to use it in its entirety - no editing. And I would require them to link back to the official product, just in case they were hacked and someone said that it was going to strike Miami in 6 hours at a category 5.

Once again, my opinion.

[mf_dolphin]

ADMIN NOTE. I deleted several posts that were entirely off-topic. This is the advisory thread so please post about that and that only. As to the weatherunderground, the advisories/position reports they post come directly from the NHC and therefore does not require a disclaimer. I hope that settles that issue.

[gkrangers]

Nobody is yelling at you or anything...so stop acting like we're being mean.

The NHC transmits the data to weather outlets...then the weather outlets post it on their websites. This is probably done without human interaction. The information is the same and the official NHC product.

The wunderground text is as official as the NHC website.

But thats just my opinion...

Well, several people telling me that it is an official product, and then it is a position estimate, and the original post is changed or disappeared; I guess I shouldn't feel like people are jumping on me.

I wouldn't have a problem if websites had official mirrors of the NHC documents, which would facilitate the more rapid and secure dissemination of their information to the public.

But when someone takes the official product and strips off the header so as to present it as their own flavor of the official NHC product, then I have a serious problem with that. And that is my opinion.

If I was the NHC I would require anyone using the text of my product to use it in its entirety - no editing. And I would require them to link back to the official product, just in case they were hacked and someone said that it was going to strike Miami in 6 hours at a category 5.

Once again, my opinion.

You are entitled to your own feelings on the matter. As far as the advisory and position estimate stuff...at 7PM, an intermediate advisory was issued by the NHC. Just like any other 3 hour advisory, cept its down to 2 hour intervals. Then at 8pm, the NHC issued a position estimate only. These positions estimates will come between the advisories. So there shouldn't be any confusion there.

[cycloneye]

ZCZC MIATCEAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE DENNIS TROPICAL CYCLONE POSITION ESTIMATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 PM EDT FRI JUL 08 2005

AT 10 PM EDT...0200 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DENNIS WAS
ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.9 WEST. THIS IS
ABOUT 30 MILES...50 KM EAST OF HAVANA CUBA AND ABOUT 115 MILES...
185 KM SOUTH OF KEY WEST FLORIDA.

FORECASTER BEVEN

$$
NNNN

[soonertwister]

160 knots is 184 mph.

Take the original in knots, knock off the right-most digit (now 16). Add half of the remaining number (half of 16 is 8, add to 16 to get 24), add the result to the original figure in knots.

160 knots = 184 mph.

It's easy with a little practice.

[manofsteele79]

Or you could just break out the calculator and multiply the wind speed in knots by 1.15 to get mph (approximately).