Potential development over the Western Caribbean Sea (Is Invest 99L)

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
700 AM EST Tue Nov 12 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Central and Western Caribbean Sea:
A tropical wave over the central Caribbean Sea is producing an area
of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for development, and a tropical
depression is likely to form by the end of the week as the system
moves slowly westward into the western Caribbean Sea. Afterward,
the disturbance is expected to meander over the western Caribbean
Sea through the weekend and begin moving slowly, generally
northwestward, by early next week. Interests across the western
Caribbean Sea should monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...Medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.


Forecaster Roberts

[xironman]

Thinking we may get an invest soon. It looks trackable and it would be nice to have the hurricane models.

[underthwx]

Sara could seriously be bad Juju for Florida or Cuba. After the region has seen hurricanes, tornadoes, and major earthquakes.....what's next, an asteroid?

I wonder who covers asteroids? The last one took out the dinosaurs. But seriously, this next system from what yall are discussing may affect Florida? The NHC outlook mentions a meandering system, which tells me whatever forms, will have ample time to strengthen.

[xironman]

Sara could seriously be bad Juju for Florida or Cuba. After the region has seen hurricanes, tornadoes, and major earthquakes.....what's next, an asteroid?

I wonder who covers asteroids? The last one took out the dinosaurs.

SpaceWeather has listings of near earth asteroids https://spaceweather.com/ along with tons of stuff on solar activity

[underthwx]

Sara could seriously be bad Juju for Florida or Cuba. After the region has seen hurricanes, tornadoes, and major earthquakes.....what's next, an asteroid?

I wonder who covers asteroids? The last one took out the dinosaurs.

SpaceWeather has listings of near earth asteroids https://spaceweather.com/ along with tons of stuff on solar activity

I was just joking, but thanks, I will check it out!

[GCANE]

Looks like dry air may have some effect on this.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 206&fh=204

This effect will likely be trumped by the period it is over the Loop Current where it will likely strengthen under an anticyclone.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 206&fh=174
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 206&fh=174

Once it moves east away from the Loop Current, waters are cooler and dry air will likely cause it to weaken on approach to landfall.
https://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/dhos/alt ... ents%20are

[underthwx]

NWS Tampa beginning to mention the disturbance in the Carribean in its 2am forecast discussion:

"By the end of the forecast period, all eyes may
have to begin looking south as a tropical wave currently over the
central Caribbean is likely to develop into a tropical system, and
move into the western Caribbean.'

Its a familiar theme this hurricane season unfortunately.

[Cachondo23]

80% chance and still no invest?

[gatorcane]

Invest should be declared soon on this area. I expect one today. The models are rather concerning. Let’s see what the hurricane models do with it.

[underthwx]

80% chance and still no invest?

Ought to be an invest later today is my guess. Not much to look at on satellite atm tho. Maybe an invest tomorrow? I dunno. I think gatorcane is right tho. (And Kevin)

[kevin]

Even if it might not look 100% invest-worthy, I do expect NHC to call it an invest later today so they can get the hurricane model runs started.

[gatorcane]

Saved 06Z GFS loop:

[gatorcane]

GFS trend last 5 runs:

[WaveBreaking]

GFS trend last 5 runs:

https://i.postimg.cc/DZrK6fgb/gfs-mslp-pcpn-watl-fh198-trend.gif

Also peep the subtropical cyclone the GFS consistently shows in the top right

[Category5Kaiju]

If that last GFS run verified, then we'd be looking at a season that features the earliest AND the latest Category 5 on record. Insanity.

I am getting increasingly concerned about the possibility of a significant hurricane. Really hope this is the last "hurrah" of this phenomenal hurricane season.

[gatorcane]

00z NAVGEM

[tolakram]

00z NAVGEM

https://i.postimg.cc/5NYWKmnV/navgem-mslp-pcpn-watl-fh72-180.gif

So it's not going to Florida then (joke).

I can't find any good parallels to a storm forming in the Caribbean and then moving toward the US coast in November.

Mitch formed in late October and had it avoided landfall it would probably be the closest parallel. Right now only the Euro AI, which does not have a good track record, is showing a similar solution. The Euro does show a back and forth motion which might evolve into a landfall somewhere in Honduras / Nicaragua before moving north. Regardless, crazy we're even looking at this on November 12th!

[chris_fit]

Hopefully Wxman57 has not signed off for the season yet. Curious on his thoughts.

[tolakram]

5 day shear history


source: https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=atlantic&sat=wg8&prod=shr&zoom=Z&time=

[HurricaneBelle]

Finally had the debris on my block from Milton picked up yesterday, so at least I've got that going for me.