Low Pressure developing in the Southwest Caribbean Sea (Is Invest 97L)

[WaveBreaking]

Canadian very consistent on a large storm

https://i.imgur.com/jgFEbzz.png

Just watched Cantore who said, IF something forms it would be very large and if the high pressure begins to erode it would force the system north to then northwest towards the east coast. Please do not read into this anymore then what it is. It is still 7-10 days away.

A massive East Coast storm in November after mainly Gulf and Caribbean hits would be on brand with this year.

[CourierPR]

Meteorologist Joe Bastardi forecasts the system to develop this weekend and to be a threat after the election.

[SFLcane]

[Hypercane_Kyle]

A pretty clear and consistent trend on the GFS of weaker, further east.

CMC is kind of on its own with a gigantic WCARB monster.

[toad strangler]

A pretty clear and consistent trend on the GFS of weaker, further east.

CMC is kind of on its own with a gigantic WCARB monster.

Weaker and further to the E from a SW Caribbean origin would be near textbook climo heading into NOV.

[Jr0d]

A pretty clear and consistent trend on the GFS of weaker, further east.

CMC is kind of on its own with a gigantic WCARB monster.

While I hope the GFS operational is out the right track, given the GFS Ensembles are all over the place the forecast is subject to higher than normal error. Until there is some sort of consistency, the long range GFS should be ignored.

About a third of the ensembles take it NW instead of northeast....and a significant number of the them also show a hurricane, most take the NW path.

Until we have an actual area of disturbed weather, an invest for the models to lock on to, they are not going to be reliable especially 10 days out..

[toad strangler]

12z CMC is much further East than 0z
Takes a storm into Haiti.

[SconnieCane]

A pretty clear and consistent trend on the GFS of weaker, further east.

CMC is kind of on its own with a gigantic WCARB monster.

While I hope the GFS operational is out the right track, given the GFS Ensembles are all over the place the forecast is subject to higher than normal error. Until there is some sort of consistency, the long range GFS should be ignored.

About a third of the ensembles take it NW instead of northeast....and a significant number of the them also show a hurricane, most take the NW path.

Until we have an actual area of disturbed weather, an invest for the models to lock on to, they are not going to be reliable especially 10 days out..

Yeah, don't forget how pre-Milton downtrended on the models as it got closer until a few days out, then popped back up again with a vengeance.

[kevin]

12z ICON also shows the system, but much further southwest than 12z GFS.

[cycloneye]

Until a low forms, the models will be like a wiper in different directions.

[psyclone]

As we near November it is safe and fair to acknowledge it is very tough...but not impossible...to push a cane toward FL. The cocoon of seasonal favorabilty contracts very rapidly south and west deep into the Caribbean. Michelle 2001 is a great example of a scenario more likely than a risk to FL.

[TomballEd]

As we near November it is safe and fair to acknowledge it is very tough...but not impossible...to push a cane toward FL. The cocoon of seasonal favorabilty contracts very rapidly south and west deep into the Caribbean. Michelle 2001 is a great example of a scenario more likely than a risk to FL.

They run the season through November just for Florida. Different path, but Hurricane Kate had some people eating Thanksgiving dinner in the dark.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Kate_(1985)

[sasha_B]

Still nothing that can be called a trend yet, as far as I can tell, aside from a trend towards some sort of closed low forming from the end of this week into the first week of November - the ICON has picking up on that on recent runs, GFS and Euro ensembles both support it, the CMC has been showing a hurricane for a couple of days now, and the GFS has been very consistent on that for even longer (even if it's windshield-wiping between eastward/westward and weaker/stronger solutions, it's shown a sub-990 hPa system somewhere in the Caribbean with 100% consitency run-to-run). AI-Euro also suggests a broad area of low pressure at least, which given its low resolution is a decent signal for development as well.
The NHC's 0/40 seems like a perfectly reasonable estimate of the probability of TCG, and two of the three models that show development tend to show at minimum a nameable system and on some iterations, a major hurricane. As others have pointed out, track remains up in the air until there's an actual disturbance. If the GFS continues to show weaker storms on the next 3-4 runs and the ensembles drop off, that would be a trend, but right now it just seems to be reflective of the typical forecast uncertainty at this range.

[cycloneye]

Copy and paste from 8 AM. I think they are waiting for the Euro.

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Mon Oct 28 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Southwestern Caribbean Sea:
A broad area of low pressure is likely to develop over the
southwestern Caribbean Sea in a few days. Gradual development is
possible thereafter, and a tropical depression could form late this
week or over the weekend while the system begins to drift northward
or northeastward toward the central Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.


Forecaster Hagen/Adams

[SFLcane]

Healthy signal remains on the eps this afternoon..

[AJC3]

Another quick reminder, gang...

Whenever you see a post that's obvious disinformation or trolling, rather than reply to it, just hit the report button and it'll be taken care of. When a post like that is replied to, it gets quoted, which (1) Gives it more exposure than it deserves; and (2) Makes more work for the mods/admins to remove all mentions if it.

As always, we thank you.

[wxman57]

I've been away from here for the past week as I vacationed in Florida. However, I was monitoring models from there. It does seem that this potential system will not be impacting Florida. It may not even develop. Predicted flow pattern next week would favor either a track west into Central America or northeast, passing well south of Florida. Personally, I'm all for no developing, as I'm in the lead in the office hurricane contest and any development after October 30th, breaks the tie and causes me to lose to a tiebreaker for the second year in a row. I need to pick a later date for the last named storm formation. I have the 28th, my tied coworker has Nov. 2.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

It'll probably develop. Good signal on the CMC/GFS/ICON and ensembles. Euro doesn't have it, but it has a bias against these types of genesis scenarios.

[underthwx]

This is an excerpt from this mornings 540 AM NWS San Juan PR forecast discussion,
which I like to read everyday. It makes mention of the current area of interest in
the SW Carribean. I thought I would share it with y'all.

A wet and unstable period could unfold during the end of the
month/beginning of November as the National Hurricane Center is
monitoring an area of low pressure that is likely to develop over
the southwestern Caribbean Sea. They anticipate a gradual
development late this week or over the weekend as the system
begins to drift northward or northeastward and potentially
approach the forecast area. This area of low pressure now has a 40
percent chance of development in the next 7 days. However, it is
far in the forecast, and we encourage people to stay informed with
each update.

[blp]

18z GFS starting to come around. Now develops the northern vort which was what the other models were showing a few days ago and then at the end develops the southern vort but later in the run. I expect the 00z to line up with the others and develop the southern vort. This should head into the W. Caribbean then we see what it does.