Low Pressure in the Northwest Caribbean Sea (Is Invest 93L)

[Ianswfl]

12z GFS showing some sort of 850mb vort now.

Looks like trash but tracks all amazing agreements by the models. Probably pasco county on south to naples landfall point. Looks like maybe cat1ish, nothing out of hand

[Kingarabian]

It's not October but these systems can sneak on you. 48 hours over water is a long time for rapid development.

[toad strangler]

12z GFS verbatim shows a strung out mess through 114 hours from the Yucatan to SFL

[Ianswfl]

12z GFS verbatim shows a strung out mess through 114 hours from the Yucatan to SFL

Still a bit better than last run. Go by the ensembles

[Iceresistance]

12z GFS verbatim shows a strung out mess through 114 hours from the Yucatan to SFL

It's because of the ULL on the GFS that GCANE mentioned before.

[chaser1]

The ULL is strengthening and moving from the Yucatan into the BoC

A chance that the GFS may verify?

Watching carefully how it trends next few runs

Upper low clearly moving westward toward the SW GOM leads me to question GFS suggestion of upper low in E. GOM early next week.

Another quick note; the EPAC embryonic disturbance clearly visible on satellite and previously discussed this morning over Central America may not be the sole catalyst for the anticipated new disturbance discussed here. I am seeing on visible satellite what I believe as a far less convective yet potential area of slight mid-level vorticity just offshore the border between Nicaragua and Honduras. Keep an eye on this general area as it continues westward in conjunction with the larger convective disturbance that all eyes are on.

[jfk08c]

12z Canadian slower moving resulting in a western shift and sending it into the Big Bend area. Little stronger on this run which makes sense given the additional time over water

[cycloneye]

12z CMC a little more stronger than 00z.

[LarryWx]

The 0Z UKMET had a TD forming just S of W Cuba that later moves NE over S FL. The 12Z will be out shortly.

0Z UK
NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 96 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 96 : 22.1N 83.2W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 28.08.2023 96 22.1N 83.2W 1004 26
1200UTC 28.08.2023 108 23.6N 82.2W 1005 33
0000UTC 29.08.2023 120 24.9N 81.8W 1005 26
1200UTC 29.08.2023 132 27.2N 80.2W 1007 26
0000UTC 30.08.2023 144 28.2N 80.5W 1005 27
1200UTC 30.08.2023 156 30.3N 78.3W 1007 27
0000UTC 31.08.2023 168 32.1N 76.1W 1006 28

[chaser1]

12z GFS verbatim shows a strung out mess through 114 hours from the Yucatan to SFL

It's because of the ULL on the GFS that GCANE mentioned before.

With GFS still not onboard, it's hard for me to quite yet buy into the Euro/ICON/GEM solutions but it is intriguing. Lets see if the EURO 12Z continues to advertise a TS or hurricane developing in the W. Caribbean or GOM (or if its timing changes)

[LarryWx]

This GOM threat is a tough one to predict. Whereas there's good model agreement for something, I have to go all of the way back to storm #6 of 1880 to find an El Niño with a similar track in either late Aug or early Sep:

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tracks/tracks-at-1880.png

[cycloneye]

LarryWx, 12z UKMET is up.

[GCANE]

GFS 12Z Run, Valid Tues 12Z
The ULL in the east GOM seems to be trending west however 355K PV is stronger.

[ronjon]

12z GFS verbatim shows a strung out mess through 114 hours from the Yucatan to SFL

It's because of the ULL on the GFS that GCANE mentioned before.

With GFS still not onboard, it's hard for me to quite yet buy into the Euro/ICON/GEM solutions but it is intriguing. Lets see if the EURO 12Z continues to advertise a TS or hurricane developing in the W. Caribbean or GOM (or if its timing changes)

The disturbance has GFS ensemble support so think it's only a matter of time before the operational swings toward the suite of other models.

[Stormcenter]

In past seasons the GFS would be all over this and show it as a Cat.5. The fact that it’s not showing much and the other models are at least showing something organized makes me “right now” doubt much will be come of this. Of course things can and will probably change one way or another.

[GCANE]

GFS 12Z Run, Valid Tues 12Z
The ULL in the east GOM seems to be trending west however 355K PV is stronger.

Looks like the whole thing falls apart on Wednesday.
So, if the LL vort slows down by about one day, GFS could show development then.

[LarryWx]

LarryWx, 12z UKMET is up.

https://i.imgur.com/GvCYfu3.jpg

Thanks, Luis. So, the 12Z UKMET (typically overly conservative model with winds) is significantly stronger than the 0Z (partially due to being over water longer) with a TS instead of just a TD. Also, instead of it moving NE across S FL, it moves NE from the FL Big Bend across N FL into the Atlantic.

[Nuno]

Its funny that if the GFS alone shows something but no other model does, we throw it out. But now that every model but GFS shows solid development, some are claiming we need the GFS to come aboard to add validity

Things are trending in the direction of development compared to yesterday. Dont just focus on the operational of one run. Lots of models showing this are aiming towards Big Bend.

[N2FSU]

I would say if anything, the GFS is trending towards the Euro, with increased vorticity that crosses Florida and closes off in the Atlantic.


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[toad strangler]

ATM I sense some Tropical Storm Andrea vibes circa 2013. Albeit that was a early June storm.