SFLcane wrote:10 days away so much can and will change.
Track, yes. Intensity, it's becoming clear there will be something coherent near or entering the Caribbean in less than 5 days. I would say odds should be 20/70.
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SFLcane wrote:10 days away so much can and will change.
Kingarabian wrote:wxman57 wrote:The more northern EC ensemble members develop it more quickly and are stronger. I put together a "what-if" track based solely on an interpolation between the 12Z GFS and Euro. The track starts Sunday morning. It's not my forecast, just an interpolation of current operational runs to get an idea of the track & timing. Let's hope it stays weaker and takes the farther south track. We don't need a hurricane moving into the Gulf on July 3.
[url]http://wxman57.com/images/prelim.JPG[url]
Yeah. The way it looks on satellite so far shows that the stronger EPS members and CMC operational solutions have some weight.
wxman57 wrote:The more northern EC ensemble members develop it more quickly and are stronger. I put together a "what-if" track based solely on an interpolation between the 12Z GFS and Euro. The track starts Sunday morning. It's not my forecast, just an interpolation of current operational runs to get an idea of the track & timing. Let's hope it stays weaker and takes the farther south track. We don't need a hurricane moving into the Gulf on July 3.
http://wxman57.com/images/prelim.JPG
SFLcane wrote:10 days away so much can and will change.
zzh wrote:[url]https://i.imgur.com/Cyfk8gn.jpg[url]
EC ensemble 2021 6.23 12Z. it only lasted one run. We will see if that happens again or not this year.
zzh wrote:https://i.imgur.com/Cyfk8gn.jpg
EC ensemble 2021 6.23 12Z. it only lasted one run. We will see if that happens again or not this year.
SoupBone wrote:zzh wrote:https://i.imgur.com/Cyfk8gn.jpg
EC ensemble 2021 6.23 12Z. it only lasted one run. We will see if that happens again or not this year.
Yeah that's not good.
Teban54 wrote:SoupBone wrote:zzh wrote:https://i.imgur.com/Cyfk8gn.jpg
EC ensemble 2021 6.23 12Z. it only lasted one run. We will see if that happens again or not this year.
Yeah that's not good.
This was in 2021 on the same date, btw, in case anyone missed it (I almost did).
Teban54 wrote:SoupBone wrote:zzh wrote:https://i.imgur.com/Cyfk8gn.jpg
EC ensemble 2021 6.23 12Z. it only lasted one run. We will see if that happens again or not this year.
Yeah that's not good.
This was in 2021 on the same date, btw, in case anyone missed it (I almost did).
cycloneye wrote:This is today's 12z.
zzh wrote:https://i.imgur.com/Cyfk8gn.jpg
EC ensemble 2021 6.23 12Z. it only lasted one run. We will see if that happens again or not this year.
AtlanticWind wrote:GFS coming in stronger at 36 hours, 1008 mb
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