Another GOM Disturbance

[gatorcane]

I like RGB at night. Saved loop below. You can see the vorticity with a small blob of convection that has blown up near it:

[weathaguyry]

Wow, it's hard to think that the next storm name would be Franklin, due to all of the season cancel posts.

[stormhunter7]

looks like shear has won the battle the last few hrs. tops are being blown to the south

[weathaguyry]

looks like shear has won the battle the last few hrs. tops are being blown to the south

It looks like storms are blowing up right on the center and to the south, but since the convection is so new, and the feature is so small it's hard to say exactly what is going on, just my guess though since I'm not 100% what shear is like over there

[northjaxpro]

Yeah, I thought this vortex was invest worthy during the late afternoon. However. with the current trends noted by some of you and what I am seeing, I think this system will get designated as an invest fairly soon.

[gatorcane]

looks like shear has won the battle the last few hrs. tops are being blown to the south

It looks like storms are blowing up right on the center and to the south, but since the convection is so new, and the feature is so small it's hard to say exactly what is going on, just my guess though since I'm not 100% what shear is like over there

Shear is on the decrease:

[stormhunter7]

looks like shear has won the battle the last few hrs. tops are being blown to the south

It looks like storms are blowing up right on the center and to the south, but since the convection is so new, and the feature is so small it's hard to say exactly what is going on, just my guess though since I'm not 100% what shear is like over there

Looking at GOES-16 data.. theres about 30-50kts upper level winds coming in from the north about to be over the vortext. Clearly the sunset storms from earlier are blowing off to the south, and i think i can see low level in IR shortwave moving NE. aka, shear is winning current battle, i believe.

[weathaguyry]

If trends continue, I would think something like 30/30 at 2AM and 99L sometime tomorrow morning

[northjaxpro]

Is it just me, or does it appear on RGB imagery that convection is beginning to curl in toward the LLC?

[BobHarlem]

The storms are popping up around there, but being blown off fairly quickly, easier to see on the Goes 16 loop http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=gulf-13-48-1
It's persistent though (use the 200 frame loop if your connection is good)

[weathaguyry]

looks like shear has won the battle the last few hrs. tops are being blown to the south

It looks like storms are blowing up right on the center and to the south, but since the convection is so new, and the feature is so small it's hard to say exactly what is going on, just my guess though since I'm not 100% what shear is like over there

Looking at GOES-16 data.. theres about 30-50kts upper level winds coming in from the north about to be over the vortext. Clearly the sunset storms from earlier are blowing off to the south, and i think i can see low level in IR shortwave moving NE. aka, shear is winning current battle, i believe.

Yes, I think I was looking at an old loop, I see that clouds are getting pushed to the south

[Nimbus]

Looks like the LLC is running back out from under that healthy convection burst we saw earlier.
The pattern should repeat until this gets inland or the shear lets up.
NHC seems to think this may stay under shear all the way up till landfall around Thursday.

[stormhunter7]

new storms going up on the SE side of COC... but coc is not under any storms as of right now.

Side note... Emily appears to have stalled... which i think may cause this low to go more north than east i think?

[weathaguyry]

I'm pretty sure that if storms wrap in to the COC it will be better for the storm than a blob of storms over the COC

[northjaxpro]

new storms going up on the SE side of COC... but coc is not under any storms as of right now.

Side note... Emily appears to have stalled... which i think may cause this low to go more north than east i think?

Emily now post-tropical. It is a badly sheared system. Also is moving northeast at 9 mph according to NHC. It is time to bring Bones out for his proclamation concerning Emily. I don't see wxman 57 on the forum late tonight though.

[SFLcane]

Not seeing much here but more rain for Florida.

[Sciencerocks]

Wow, it's hard to think that the next storm name would be Franklin, due to all of the season cancel posts.

Season reminds me of 2013..Lots of weak systems that deal with a lot of shear. http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /index.php

Maybe we'll see a few short lived hurricanes later in the season like we had in 2013 too.

[TheStormExpert]

Wow, it's hard to think that the next storm name would be Franklin, due to all of the season cancel posts.

Season reminds me of 2013..Lots of weak systems that deal with a lot of shear. http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /index.php

Maybe we'll see a few short lived hurricanes later in the season like we had in 2013 too.

Wouldn't surprise me if we make an attempt at one of the latest forming 1st hurricanes of the season.

[Steve]

Wow, it's hard to think that the next storm name would be Franklin, due to all of the season cancel posts.

Season reminds me of 2013..Lots of weak systems that deal with a lot of shear. http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /index.php

Maybe we'll see a few short lived hurricanes later in the season like we had in 2013 too.

Troll job maybe, but would you like to put a wager on that?

[AxaltaRacing24]

Wow, it's hard to think that the next storm name would be Franklin, due to all of the season cancel posts.

Season reminds me of 2013..Lots of weak systems that deal with a lot of shear. http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /index.php

Maybe we'll see a few short lived hurricanes later in the season like we had in 2013 too.

Troll job maybe, but would you like to put a wager on that?

I cannot tell if some people are just joking to mock others on this site or if they are serious anymore