Disturbance over the eastern Atantic

[Gustywind]

[Frank2]

Yes, there's a lot of activity out there this morning - just a suggestion, but some here might want to check out the SIGMETS for that area, since that'll give some additional info on what's going on...

Frank

[KWT]

It looks a good deal further south then the GFS expects it to be, it seems to develop a region further north to this region, well away fro mthe ITCZ...hmmm....

Meanwhile the ECM maybe clears the picture up, looks like another Colin type evolution with the large ITCZ mass waits for some extra instablity and eventually develops t othe north of where it currently is.

ECM isn't really at all impressed with this area FWIW....but it didn't close off either Bonnie or Colin, so quite possible it would be a weak TD/TS on the ECM.

[srainhoutx]

Back on Topic folks.

[hurricaneCW]

The more I look at it, the more I think it's just the ITCZ and nothing will come out of it anytime soon. Perhaps the wave near Africa has a better chance. Anything that develops now wouldn't have a chance down the road. I think in 2 weeks we could be dealing with stronger storms or (August 20-25).

[KWT]

It probably is ITCZ based but as we saw with Colin if it gets any help it'll probably have a good shot at developing.

[Portastorm]

Wow ... the eastern Atlantic is really percolating right now! Any slight upward motion via the MJO and it's hard to imagine us not having a sharp uptick in action.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/avn-l.jpg

[ConvergenceZone]

I think the chances of recurve are very high, I mean probably somewhere about 90-95% chance...the only chance it doesn't recurve is if it doesn't develop till about 55-60W.....not impossible but I suspect it will occur before then.

Surprised there isn't no mention just yet but I'm guessing they think its still too attached to the ITCZ.

KWT, How can these waves recurve so easily if they are still attached to the ITCZ? I mean usually you hear about storms recurving because they are too far north. How far south would this have to be in order for it not to recurve?

[KWT]

That is what happens CZ when you've got a fairly deep trough and whatever there is of Colin also heading through that gap as well it becomes quite large.

Now its possible the models are way too quick in developing this region and IF thats the case then a track close to Colin is quite possible it remains to be seen.

The only to prevent it from recurving is probably for it to stay in the ITCZ for a while yet IMO.

[clfenwi]

Windsat overpass from early this morning shows a good amount of convergence IVO 12.5°N 32.5°W.

[Gustywind]

Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Posted by: JeffMasters, 13:54 GMT le 05 août 2010


Elsewhere in the tropics
The GFS model is predicting that a tropical wave that moved off the coast of Africa yesterday will develop into a tropical depression early next week. None of the other models is showing any obvious tropical cyclone development over the coming week. The current phase of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) over the Atlantic favors upward motion and enhanced probabilities of tropical storm formation, so it would not be a surprise to see a new tropical depression form next week between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands.

[HURAKAN]

In the last few images, rotation is visible. May be the beginning!

Link - http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/flash-rgb.html

[BatzVI]

If you look at the loop the last couple of frames, it looks like it has a little eye going on around 13/35...probably just an illusion....

[Gustywind]

[ConvergenceZone]

The wave coming off Africa now looks to be the last for awhile based on that Sat Pic. So this would be it in the eastern
Atlantic probably for a couple of weeks, so either one of these develop or bust........

[clfenwi]

GFS keeps advertising it. 12Z run starts displaying a closed low at the 24h mark. Here's the 48h graphic



Now let's see if the other global models start promoting this specific area as well (00Z CMC and UKMET had development in the (very) general area, but not the same spot as GFS).

120h; bit more subdued in development compared to 00Z run.



(edited to add 120h graphic)

[Weatherfreak000]

Shooting out outflow boundaries everywhere. Not looking so hot today.

[RL3AO]

Bastardi called the area near 38W a "citizens hatched area". He's done waiting for the NHC to tag it.

[clfenwi]

12Z CMC cares far more about the eastern Pacific than anything in the Atlantic.

12Z NOGAPS develops a vorticity max further to the east than what the GFS develops, then carries it west. 120h:

[Sanibel]

Twist near 12N-37W