Wave in Caribbean

[tailgater]

Yes I also noticed that GFS and occasionally Nogaps, on again off again development of something in the southern Caribbean where there is an almost permanent low, then take it northwestward. I guess they still need a little more tweaking

[thetruesms]

Actually, it appears to be something else that the GFS is developing. I tracked the low-level vorticity from the wave approaching the Caribbean (circled on the image below) and the GFS develops something out ahead of it, apparently out of thin air. The wave does reach the GFS low on Monday and it appears to enhance it, though. I have been saying to watch out around the 13th of the month as wind shear drops off in the western Caribbean. So we'll have to keep an eye on this one.

The good news is that both the GFS and ECMWF have a ridge centered over south Louisiana for the next week. That should steer anything that develops westward across the Yucatan (or Central America) and into southern Mexico.

[img]http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/gfs.gif[img]

Well geez, now don't I feel dumb. I didn't even notice that until you mentioned it. But you're absolutely right - what it's developing does start happening before the targeted wave gets there. It kind of looks to me like it's dragging the wave TPC analyzed at 79W 11N this morning to the northwest and developing it from that.

[wxman57]

Actually, it appears to be something else that the GFS is developing. I tracked the low-level vorticity from the wave approaching the Caribbean (circled on the image below) and the GFS develops something out ahead of it, apparently out of thin air. The wave does reach the GFS low on Monday and it appears to enhance it, though. I have been saying to watch out around the 13th of the month as wind shear drops off in the western Caribbean. So we'll have to keep an eye on this one.

The good news is that both the GFS and ECMWF have a ridge centered over south Louisiana for the next week. That should steer anything that develops westward across the Yucatan (or Central America) and into southern Mexico.

[img]http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/gfs.gif[img]

Well geez, now don't I feel dumb. I didn't even notice that until you mentioned it. But you're absolutely right - what it's developing does start happening before the targeted wave gets there. It kind of looks to me like it's dragging the wave TPC analyzed at 79W 11N this morning to the northwest and developing it from that.

It was actually hard to tell what it was developing without the ability to plot it in GARP and animate high-res low-level vorticity and surface pressure in 1/2 millibar increments. The wave energy eventually gets entrained into the GFS low.

[cycloneye]

I found in another board this quote from Joe Bastardi about the wave as I am not subscribed to his premimun thing.

The tropical wave approaching the islands is the first one from the African wave train that has started growing before reaching the islands. This may have a relatively far south southern track, but it still may get into the Gulf next week. Waves following should track a bit farther north as the month progresses.

Joe B

[Ivanhater]

12z GFS develops this wave in the western Caribbean and moves it into the BOC..stays pretty close to land though so that might hinder development, though looking at the upper heights, they don't seem that strong over the gulf. In fact, steering patterns in the Gulf change shortly after this storm moves into the BOC, so timing will be an issue with this one.

[Macrocane]

I wouldn't be surpised if something develops in the Caribbean next week, that scenario is becoming more likely, let's see if there is support and consistency in the models on the next few days.

[Ivanhater]

Nogaps wraps up this wave in the Western Caribbean

[tailgater]

At 8 days away you can be pretty sure this won't occur.

[cycloneye]

Up to 10%.

ABNT20 KNHC 091732
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT WED JUN 9 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS ASSOCIATED
WITH A TROPICAL WAVE. SURFACE PRESSURES REMAIN HIGH AND UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS ARE NOT CURRENTLY FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA/LANDSEA

[Ivanhater]

10 percent is pretty good imo for the next 48 hours. This wave will not develop until it reaches the Western Caribbean, so raising the percentage now s a positive sign of development. I suspect this will become an invest in a day or so.

[Brent]

10 percent is pretty good imo for the next 48 hours. This wave will not develop until it reaches the Western Caribbean, so raising the percentage now s a positive sign of development. I suspect this will become an invest in a day or so.

Agree. I think this is a strong candidate for the first storm, but not for a few days.

[wxman57]

10 percent is pretty good imo for the next 48 hours. This wave will not develop until it reaches the Western Caribbean, so raising the percentage now s a positive sign of development. I suspect this will become an invest in a day or so.

I'm wondering if the morning forecaster made a procedural error in identifying a yellow region and not forecasting any development potential? Maybe they should not have identified the wave as a feature on the TDO unless there was at least a 10% chance of development? Remember, this is a new procedure for 2010. Previously, the percent chance of development over then next 48 hours was not given.

[wxman57]

12Z GFS is much like the 00Z and the 00Z ECMWF in building a large ridge over the north-central Gulf early next week. That would steer anything in the western Caribbean nearly due west either across northern Central America or southern Mexico or across the southern BoC into southern Mexico. This system shouldn't cause any problems for the cleanup operation.

[Aquawind]

10 percent is pretty good imo for the next 48 hours. This wave will not develop until it reaches the Western Caribbean, so raising the percentage now s a positive sign of development. I suspect this will become an invest in a day or so.

I'm wondering if the morning forecaster made a procedural error in identifying a yellow region and not forecasting any development potential? Maybe they should not have identified the wave as a feature on the TDO unless there was at least a 10% chance of development? Remember, this is a new procedure for 2010. Previously, the percent chance of development over then next 48 hours was not given.

Well Said.. there are alot of 0% areas out there..lol There should be a chance if it's even in the outlook..

[Ivanhater]

12Z GFS is much like the 00Z and the 00Z ECMWF in building a large ridge over the north-central Gulf early next week. That would steer anything in the western Caribbean nearly due west either across northern Central America or southern Mexico or across the southern BoC into southern Mexico. This system shouldn't cause any problems for the cleanup operation.

Makes sense. God knows we don't need a storm in this area anytime soon. Saw the tar balls on Pensacola beach the other day and to see that on the pristine white beaches is a heart breaker.

You mention the steering patterns that would steer this storms due west is interesting. This being a week out, this pattern could change some which is important with this storm being so close to land. If the high in the Gulf is not as strong as forecast, then this system could have more time over water. Our first real system to watch at least.

[thetruesms]

10 percent is pretty good imo for the next 48 hours. This wave will not develop until it reaches the Western Caribbean, so raising the percentage now s a positive sign of development. I suspect this will become an invest in a day or so.

I'm wondering if the morning forecaster made a procedural error in identifying a yellow region and not forecasting any development potential? Maybe they should not have identified the wave as a feature on the TDO unless there was at least a 10% chance of development? Remember, this is a new procedure for 2010. Previously, the percent chance of development over then next 48 hours was not given.

I think it was real, since the text said "near 0%", rather than "0%". 90L also had a couple "near 0%" TWOs issued as well. It seems like perhaps they might use near 0 as a way to highlight a weakening feature that no longer has development potential or a feature that indicates no short-term development potential, but may have some beyond 48 hours ?

[KWT]

12Z GFS is much like the 00Z and the 00Z ECMWF in building a large ridge over the north-central Gulf early next week. That would steer anything in the western Caribbean nearly due west either across northern Central America or southern Mexico or across the southern BoC into southern Mexico. This system shouldn't cause any problems for the cleanup operation.

Yeah that sounds about right, the system could well be worth watching once it gets into the W.Caribbean and if the system can get into the region of much lower shear that is predicted by the models, it'll certainly get a good chance of developing into a weak system before it hits CA, or possibly even into the BoC, like we saw in 05 with Bret.

[clfenwi]

10 percent is pretty good imo for the next 48 hours. This wave will not develop until it reaches the Western Caribbean, so raising the percentage now s a positive sign of development. I suspect this will become an invest in a day or so.

I'm wondering if the morning forecaster made a procedural error in identifying a yellow region and not forecasting any development potential? Maybe they should not have identified the wave as a feature on the TDO unless there was at least a 10% chance of development? Remember, this is a new procedure for 2010. Previously, the percent chance of development over then next 48 hours was not given.

I think it was real, since the text said "near 0%", rather than "0%". 90L also had a couple "near 0%" TWOs issued as well. It seems like perhaps they might use near 0 as a way to highlight a weakening feature that no longer has development potential or a feature that indicates no short-term development potential, but may have some beyond 48 hours ?

thetruesms points out the same thing I was going to say wrt "near 0%" and 90L. Seems like thats the NHC's new way of summoning Bones or saying "DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR"

One note with what wxman57 said: This is the first year of giving development probability to the nearest 10%, but giving % ranges of probabilities were used in 2009.

I must say that I like seeing the explicit indication of what they think the probability is (and how their outlook accordingly changes) rather than the past practice of scrutinizing every last change of wording and trying to guess whether the change was meaningful.

[Hurricane Andrew]

Hi! good thing goin' on there. I think it has a chance when it reaches those 85-90 degree carribean waters, what do you think!

[KWT]

It looks like the ECM takes this wave into the BoC eventually, so the system may well end up getting two windows to develop if it can get far enough north.