Is The 2008 Hurricane Season Winding Down Quickly?

[jinftl]

I personally hope there is a storm to track soon because that is when the board is at its best....now this is degenerating into tit for tat, ideology and judgments, heathens and saints.....who cares if the season is over or not....how many of us keep up with the board 12 months a year regardless of current activity. There is no way a storm will slip past our mindful eyes. We have all found our way here because of interests and topics we share in common. When this board is 'hot' it is educational, eye-opening, and yes, even controversial. But the science should be the root of debate...not the character of the debaters or anything like that.

Season over or not, we'll still be here....but the season is not over on the board tonight....buzz is starting to build...talk of model runs, followed by dismissals of the models....with a much higher post frequency than we have seen in a while....yellow circles over the nw caribbean and wild model runs....now would you call that a 'season over'?!?!?!

Storm formation is imminent when threads start to build a page or 2 per hour...keep an eye out for that!

[Ed Mahmoud]

I personally hope there is a storm to track soon because that is when the board is at its best....now this is degenerating into tit for tat, ideology and judgments, heathens and saints.....who cares if the season is over or not....how many of us keep up with the board 12 months a year regardless of current activity. There is no way a storm will slip past our mindful eyes. We have all found our way here because of interests and topics we share in common. When this board is 'hot' it is educational, eye-opening, and yes, even controversial. But the science should be the root of debate...not the character of the debaters or anything like that. Season over or not, we'll still be here.

Oh, there is a cadre that stays here for the excitement of 204 hour 6Z GFS runs showing snow in Houston. That season runs November to March, and then it is tornado season. For that matter, the secondary Autumn peak of tornado activity could be starting next week in the Plains.

[jinftl]

You see, the entertainment potential is year round on storm2k for us weather nuts....is anyone dreaming of a white xmas on the gulf?!?! That's what is truly awesome about weather...never dull, always changing, and keeps us guessing till the end....you can follow it your whole life and never have exactly the same experience twice....how can anyone think weather talk is dull?!?! LOL

This time of year is a bonanza...hurricanes are still around, cold weather is beginning its trek south from canada.....still get some heat in the south too....and everything in between can happen too!

I personally hope there is a storm to track soon because that is when the board is at its best....now this is degenerating into tit for tat, ideology and judgments, heathens and saints.....who cares if the season is over or not....how many of us keep up with the board 12 months a year regardless of current activity. There is no way a storm will slip past our mindful eyes. We have all found our way here because of interests and topics we share in common. When this board is 'hot' it is educational, eye-opening, and yes, even controversial. But the science should be the root of debate...not the character of the debaters or anything like that. Season over or not, we'll still be here.

Oh, there is a cadre that stays here for the excitement of 204 hour 6Z GFS runs showing snow in Houston. That season runs November to March, and then it is tornado season. For that matter, the secondary Autumn peak of tornado activity could be starting next week in the Plains.

[jinftl]

Dr. Jeff Masters' October hurricane season outlook updated today...

Climatologically, the first half of October is part of the peak portion of hurricane season. Activity does not begin to drop off significantly until mid-October. During the 13-year active Atlantic hurricane period that began in 1995, we've averaged 2.7 named storms, 1.1 hurricanes, and 0.5 intense hurricanes during the month of October. The busiest October on record was 2005, when seven named storms, three hurricanes, and one intense hurricane occurred (including Wilma, the strongest hurricane on record).

Far fewer Cape Verdes-type hurricanes form between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands during October, compared to September. Many of those that do form recurve out to sea, and the odds are that hurricane season is over for the Lesser Antilles Islands. Only four October hurricanes have affected these islands since 1851. Hurricane season is also probably over for Texas, which which has only seen three October hurricanes since 1851. Hurricane season is definitely not over for Central America, Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, the U.S. coast from Louisiana to New England, plus Bermuda, the Bahamas, and the islands of the central and western Caribbean.


Sea Surface Temperatures
Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) and oceanic heat content are declining now, but are still plenty warm enough to support a major hurricane in some regions. In particular, the entire Caribbean is 0.5-1.0°C above average in temperature, as are the waters off the U.S. East Coast. The waters of the Gulf of Mexico and Bahamas are quite cool, due to the lingering effects of the passage of Hurricanes Ike and Gustav. Due to these SST patterns, a major hurricane would be most likely to affect the Western Caribbean.


Wind Shear
The latest 15-day wind shear forecast from the GFS model predicts that wind shear across the tropical Atlantic will remain in the average to below average range. In the longer term, wind shear is predicted by NOAA's CFS model to remain below average over the Caribbean for October through December.


When will activity pick up again?
There is an oscillation in the atmosphere I've talked a little about, called the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO). The MJO is a pattern of enhanced rainfall that travels along the Equator, and can act to boost hurricane activity when it propagates into the Atlantic. The MJO has a period of about 30-60 days, and is currently in its active phase over the Atlantic. According to the latest 15-day GFS model forecast and the MJO discussion from the National Weather Service's Climate Prediction Center, we are expected to remain in an active phase for the MJO over the Atlantic for at least the next two weeks. This year, the active phase of the MJO has been strongly correlated with formation of named storms in the Atlantic. According to the latest analysis by Phil Klotzbach of Colorado State University (Table 4, below), ten of the last eleven named storms in the Atlantic this year formed during an active phase of the MJO. We can anticipate an above average chance of tropical storm formation in the Atlantic this October as a result.


The forecast
Due to above average SSTs in the Caribbean, an active phase of the MJO, and average to below average wind shear over the tropical Atlantic this month, we can expect levels of tropical storm activity similar to what has been seen in past Octobers, since the current active hurricane phase began in 1995. However, the models are showing nothing forming over the next week, and the tropics look pretty quiet right now. In consequence, I am expecting two named storms and one hurricane this month. There is a 50/50 chance this hurricane will be an intense hurricane. The October forecast from Colorado State University is more aggressive, and calls for 3 named storms, 2 hurricanes, and one major hurricane.


Steering currents
Now that it is October, the jet stream is more active and farther south, resulting in increased chances of recurvature for tropical cyclones. However, the latest 15-day GFS model forecast predicts more high pressure than usual over the Eastern U.S., which will result in longer recurvature delays than is usual for October storms. Thus, the risk of an October hurricane hitting the U.S. East Coast is higher than average this year.

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=1110&tstamp=200810

[Frank2]

Cyclenall,

They enjoy something new and fresh, exciting. They might want to see destruction, but not suffering and death. I think it's because the older generation didn't have as much media when growing up and therefore less action clips of extreme storms hence not excited by extreme weather as much.

How generous of them - they want to see our homes destroyed for their own entertainment, as long as we aren't killed - they are true humanitarians!

As long as it's not their house in the middle of the road, right?

The above quote is truly hard to comprehend - they need to pray for true fulfillment in their own lives, so that they no longer need to desire the turmoil of others in order to satisfy their own emotions...

Truly, that goes beyond meteorology for meteorology's sake, and instead descends to a level of cruelty...

[Ed Mahmoud]

SSD has an unofficial invest in the Caribbean

[Blown Away]

Since September 16 we have had Josephine, Kyle, and Laura (3/1/0).

[Frank2]

Right, but, we were speaking of anything after that trio - today's tiny TD notwithstanding, of course...

Still, per this morning's cold temps in the Northeast (already!), and, near-blizzard conditions forecast over the next day or two in Colorado (above 9,000'), it seems Fall is quickly making itself felt...

[jinftl]

Well, we got Marco now....a strong ts....not out of the question it will become a hurricane before landfall.....whoever said there would be 0 storms in october, it was a nice sentiment for sure. And with parts of Mexico under the gun with Marco, it can't even be said that this storm will not have a 'human impact'.

Let's hope he does not strengthen more before landfall.....small storms like this can ramp up quickly.

Amazing how we went from nothing when i left for work this am to a hurricane watch when i got home just now for Marco!

[DESTRUCTION5]

Right, but, we were speaking of anything after that trio - today's tiny TD notwithstanding, of course...

Still, per this morning's cold temps in the Northeast (already!), and, near-blizzard conditions forecast over the next day or two in Colorado (above 9,000'), it seems Fall is quickly making itself felt...

Marco= Frank2 FAIL

[jinftl]

Three named systems in the last 12 days....that was after a 23 day gap with no named systems forming between Josephine & Kyle!!!

We went from Sep 2 thru Sep 25 with no new systems being named...and that was the statistical busiest timeframe of the season (using Sept 10 peak)....very unusual for sure....and definitely reasonable to raise the question about the season winding down.

The last 12 days has shown the answer is 'no' to the season winding down quickly question...keeping in mind the question was originally posed on Sept 16....so to answer 'yes, the season will wind down quickly after marco'...3 weeks and 3 storms later... is not an answer to the question that was posed.

# Name Date
1 Tropical Storm ARTHUR 31 MAY-02 JUN
2 Hurricane-3 BERTHA 03-20 JUL
3 Tropical Storm CRISTOBAL 19-23 JUL
4 Hurricane-2 DOLLY 20-25 JUL
5 Tropical Storm EDOUARD 03-06 AUG
6 Tropical Storm FAY 15-26 AUG
7 Hurricane-4 GUSTAV 25 AUG-04 SEP
8 Hurricane-1 HANNA 28 AUG-07 SEP
9 Hurricane-4 IKE 01-14 SEP
10 Tropical Storm JOSEPHINE 02-06 SEP
11 Hurricane-1 KYLE 25-29 SEP
12 Tropical Storm LAURA 29 SEP-01 OCT
13 Tropical Storm MARCO 06 OCT -

[Frank2]

The last 12 days has shown the answer is 'no' to the season winding down quickly question...keeping in mind the question was originally posed on Sept 16....so to answer 'yes, the season will wind down quickly after marco'...3 weeks and 3 storms later... is not an answer to the question that was posed.

Doesn't anyone know that you must read the thread from the beginning? I wasn't talking about the "IJL" systems, but, the period beginning with the last advisory for Laura...

And, per that "Fail" comment - it's not a matter of what I or anyone else here says, but, it's only our hope that this destructive season is at an end...

For the life of me, considering all of the current problems facing the country, why anyone would wishcast for more destruction is beyond me, unless they desire to see our government fall, which is a frightening possibility, considering how things are going - like a prize fighter, one can only take so many punches...

[yzerfan]

Local mets call it a season cancel for the Northern Gulf:

http://www.nwfdailynews.com/news/weathe ... tions.html

Though the Atlantic hurricane season officially runs through Nov. 30, the Eglin Air Force Base Weather Squadron is confident the threat to the Panhandle region has sharply declined.

The squadron has even stopped issuing regular tropical updates.

Upper level winds across the Gulf of Mexico began resembling those expected in late October or November as early as mid-September with strong, persistent wind shear, according to the final regular tropical update of the 2008 hurricane season issued by Richard Henning, meteorologist with the 46th Weather Squadron.

"This has effectively shut the door about a month early on any more hurricane activity that might threaten the Panhandle," Henning said in the update.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Don't know why all the abusing on Frank2.


That said, both Canadian and GFS at 0Z suggests a cyclone developing rather late in the year in the MDR, likely a fish, and lowering pressures in the SW Caribbean in a region of light shear and weak steering.

GFS, but Canadian looks very similar:


Euro also on board...

[Ed Mahmoud]

Started a whole new thread on what could be Cuba and Florida's late season last encounter with a significant tropical cyclone.

[DanKellFla]

The early fall weather pattern has started down here in Florida. I will rate my confidence level by gas can storage. I currently have 6 full cans. I am going to go down to 4 this week, and if nothing pops up, down to 2 until the end of the season.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Remember everyone, don't let your guard down until November.
Wilma was very destructive and happened in late October. So don't
think that the season is over because there can be bad storms in
October and even November. I WISH that this season is OVER, but climatology
dictates otherwise.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

It is very sad the destruction that hurricanes and tropical storms cause

[jinftl]

Frank2, no where in my post was I referring to you...I was referring to the question posed when this thread was originated (by someone else) on September 16. Since then we have had 3 named storms. Stating this does not equate to -removed- or anarchy. It does provide an answer....my answer...to the question posed.

This is a tropical weather discussion board...discussing actual development that has taken place...or stating a month is historically active... can not possibly equate to wishing anyone harm or any tangential matters like that. I welcome anyone to go through my posts and find anything that equates to wishing harm, destruction, etc....and I stand behine the factual content and validity of any post I make...including being able to back any data up with sources.

I am not even sure what you mean bu the "IJL" systems reference....again, I was not referring to you or attacking your character. So please do not attack mine when I state there has been quite a bit of activity in the last 3 weeks. 3 storms in 3 weeks is a factual statement.....there is no innuendo or subservise tones to that so please do not quote me in regards to matters that do not deal directly with the science of storms...and do not attribute quotes to me ("Fail comment") that I did not make...that is not proper S2k protocol. I will return the same considerations, while still being able to discuss storms, engage in active dialogue, with any posters.

I am not trying to provoke a war of words...rather i am trying to convey that I respect you as a poster on S2k and ask for the same respect in return.

The last 12 days has shown the answer is 'no' to the season winding down quickly question...keeping in mind the question was originally posed on Sept 16....so to answer 'yes, the season will wind down quickly after marco'...3 weeks and 3 storms later... is not an answer to the question that was posed.

Doesn't anyone know that you must read the thread from the beginning? I wasn't talking about the "IJL" systems, but, the period beginning with the last advisory for Laura...

And, per that "Fail" comment - it's not a matter of what I or anyone else here says, but, it's only our hope that this destructive season is at an end...

For the life of me, considering all of the current problems facing the country, why anyone would wishcast for more destruction is beyond me, unless they desire to see our government fall, which is a frightening possibility, considering how things are going - like a prize fighter, one can only take so many punches...

[Ed Mahmoud]

Euro continues trend of slower and weaker on possible Caribbean TC. GFS is persistent in lowering pressures days 5 through 7 in the SW Caribbean. Plus the suggestion of possible action out in MDR country, what would probably become a fish if anything did develop.




Canadian sees dead people. GFS suggests another situation like the no-named warm core non-tropical cyclone that hit the Carolinas.

Looks like the GFS keeps it cold core, judging from thicknesses, but one never knows.