Irene forecast #8: May now stay out at sea

[Josephine96]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

EXPERIMENTAL HURRICANE FORECAST
TROPICAL STORM IRENE
NJN WEATHER CENTER
1015 PM FRI AUG 12TH 2005

Well the NHC has changed it's forecast yet again, and now thinks that Irene may stay out at sea. I believe it may as well.

Irene continues to become better organized and may become a hurricane very shortly. This, after being stuck at TD or minimal TS status for days upon days on end. She is now in very warm waters and nowhere near any land areas. According to the NHC's new forecast, she may stay away from many land areas.

Last night, I called for a possible double US landfall. It appears the chances of that may be less likely tonight. It all depends on the influence the approaching trough has on Irene. If the trough weakens or doesn't get far enough.. then Irene may progress more WNW before moving poleward.

But now the likely scenario will have Irene get close to the coast, but not actually making a landfall, riding up the Gulf stream and then having the trough kick her out to sea.

Here is my latest 5 day forecast on Irene:
Tonight: Becoming a hurricane. Well to the S and West of Bermuda. Max Winds: 80 mph
Saturday: Closest she'll ever get to Florida. Maybe some good swells at the beach. Max winds: 85 mph
Sunday: Accelerating North/NWward.. Watching carefully in Carolina's or DelMarva. Max Winds: 95 mph
Monday: Beginning to be shot to the East.. off the coast of VA. Max winds: 100 mph
Tuesday: Shooting NE, starting to weaken. Max Winds: 90 mph

[Radar]

This would definately be the best case scenario... Lets keep our fingers crossed that Irene will be a big fat fish!!