East Winds Picking Up Across S. Florida, Ridge Strengthening

[WeatherEmperor]

the models arent biased to the strength of the ridge though... they are biased to the strength of Irene... the past 3 days every model run has had Irene at around 35kt by 12hrs and yet Irene has never reached it... because Irene has remained weaker she is also remaining further south than the models predict

well how about Irene's path? Like I said, last night the models had Irene much further north then what she is right now at their 12hr positions and beyond. what do you think thats about?

<RICKY>

[boca]

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic ... start=1200

I like to know if the ridge collasped or is the same because I'm getting different info from different posters.

[gatorcane]

I think the ridge has weakened but forecasted to build in about 3 days but then get moved east by a building system originating from Alaska that should move off the East coast of the US in 3-5 days

[Frank2]

Sounds like perhaps an early Fall - highs in Montana are forecast to only be in the 50s by Friday!

Frank

[WeatherEmperor]

Sounds like perhaps an early Fall - highs in Montana are forecast to only be in the 50s by Friday!

Frank

and its still only august? wow

<RICKY>

[DESTRUCTION5]

Sounds like perhaps an early Fall - highs in Montana are forecast to only be in the 50s by Friday!

Frank

LOL..Frank you kill me...

[du1st]

anyone see a september blizzard? LOL In Atlanta!

[Frank2]

The below from the early morning Miami NWSFO discussion (edited for continuity):

SFC TO H5 ATLANTIC HIGH REMAINS RATHER WEAK AND CONTINUES TO EXTEND AS FAR WEST AS THE BAHAMAS...A WEAKNESS IN THE ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BE PRESENT ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH THE WEEK.

[du1st]

what does that mean frank?

[gatorcane]

in laymans terms that means no consistent E windflow here in S. Florida which means slow moving storms with movement governed by local seabreezes...we should see a return to the E and SE windflow here in S. Florida by the weekend...

[Frank2]

Well, early Fall seasons often have significant impacts on the hurricane season - despite the severity of the 2004 season, the season ended abruptly for the U.S. after Jeanne (with the exception of one weak TS), and so did the 2002 season, for the same reasons (unfavorable westerly winds), so...

It's very early to have a "cold" high move down from Alaska, so, it's very possible that it's the beginning of a long-term trend, and could possibly signal an early southward movement of the northern branch of the jet stream.

Frank

[gatorcane]

Frank good point.

[du1st]

Thanks for the info Frank.

[Frank2]

You're welcome - by the way, the 2002 season ended with Category 4 Hurricane Lili making landfall along the Gulf coast - but nothing else after that October 4 landfall.

Incidentially, Lili did the same thing that Dennis and Emily did just before landfall - signficant weakening in the final few hours, which prevented much more damage than was earlier feared.

Frank

[du1st]

Lili was a dud and it weakend more than Emily and dennis.

[fci]

Yes, I think we are in another situation where the models want to pull it north because of where it is at but they will continue to trend west. BUT the the Bermuda High is not as strong today...I noticed there is barely even a wind along the FL SE coast AM...so maybe we'll see the WNW turn begin today.

based on last year's forecast bias towards turning storms north (see Jeanne); I don't rest easy until a storm is north of about 28.5!!!

They can promise all they want about "turns" but until I see it; I don't buy into it.

fci- (26.6N)

[Patrick99]

Frank good point.

What about the strong Charley trough? I was worried that that would effectively cap off the season early, but the highs that came in in its wake seemed to be strong and steady.