230 PM Update on Atlantic Waves and Convection

[Marilyn]

My gosh you got it.. Nice bear picture there tampa
Now make all of them go fish or dissapate when they get too close to the coast.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Dustin- I was pointing out convective clusters in the Atlantic, and discussing their potential for development given the enlarging field of moisture between 25W and 60W.

Marilyn- Thanks for compliments . Also, many of these systems are low-riders, so they may not be fish, and could enter the Carribean, once that happens...things could get very interesting depending on several criteria:

1. If shear lessens
2. If Dry air dissipates and moisture moves in
3. Those SSTs keep up; But Criteria 1 and 2 have to be met before this criterion takes effect

[clfenwi]

I feel highly confident in saying there won't be any new activity (i.e. no TDs or invests) in the next 72 hours and reasonably confident in saying no new activity in the next 120 hours. Western most tropical wave has a murderously unfavorable upper air enviroment in front of it (1)
and also, moving west along 19° N puts it over the Greater Antilles.
If that's not enough, it is also embeded in very dry air. See 805 AM TWD.(2)

Elsewhere, looking at ir imagery, (3, 4) most convection looks like ITCZ stuff.
Most impressive thing is the wave currently entering the scene. The only wave to do anything within a short time period of entering (other than dying) was Irene. And in her case, the UKEMT, Canadian, and GFS models all sold the case for her developing right off the bat. Right now, they don't show anything new developing in the Atlantic (5, 6, 7)

(1) http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8shr.html

(2) http://www.srh.noaa.gov/data/NHC/TWDAT.0508081051

(3) http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/WATL/IR4/20.jpg

(4) http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/EATL/IR4/20.jpg

(5) http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.cgi?time=2005080812&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

(6) http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.cgi?time=2005080812&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

(7) http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ukmtc2.c ... =Animation

cleaned up URLs

[SouthFloridawx]

What dry air?

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and
should not be used as such. It is just the opinion
of the poster and may or may not be backed by
sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by
any professional institution including
storm2k.org For Official Information please
refer to the NHC and NWS products.

230 PM Update:
Wave Analysis:
It appears that moisture content and convection has
gotten better throughout the afternoon. We will need
to keep a watch on these clusters, as well as several
that will move off of Africa the next 4-5 days.
Development wise, we may see an invest popping
up soon for either one of the waves in the first cluster
or the wave that came off of Africa, if it keeps its strength.
For now, the wave just off Africa appears to have the
best convection and organization.

Forecast Paths:

The first and second clusters appear to have a
proclivity for low-riding. This characteristic diminishes
the likelihood of recurvature. I thus believe that
these clusters are likely to slowly make their
way into the Carribean.

Forecast Intensity:
Slow development possible next 3-6 days.
Tropical Depression Status is conceivable with
the cluster off the Africa. Moisture has increased.
Rapid Intensification is unlikely due to a
lack of effective organization within the waves.

[Frank2]

Re: clfenwi's post

I agree - it's very quiet at this time, with nothing to suggest any change (thankfully) - I guess we'll just have to wait and see if these long-range forecasts prove to be accurate. As a few others have said here last week - perhaps the July period of Dennis and Emily were just an exception to the remainder of the season.

In fact, if Dennis and Emily were removed from the totals, the season so far would be 7-0-0 - not slow, but not busy or record-setting, either.

Frank