JB thinks 92L is headed for GOM plus homegrown developement

[Stormcenter]

JB this still believes there will be something developing south of LA. and move westward sometime this weekend. He also believes 92L will still develop and head towards the GOM through the Fl. straits. next week. It was one of his better
updates.

[HouTXmetro]

I was just about to ask the same question!!!! I do see that the Thunderstorm complex has moved offshore of the Northern Gulf. 92L doesn't seem to far away either. Is it possible the wave could move into the Gulf and enhance the possible Gulf development prospects? Pro mets please chime in.

[Stormcenter]

I was just about to ask the same question!!!! I do see that the Thunderstorm complex has moved offshore of the Northern Gulf. 92L doesn't seem to far away either. Is it possible the wave could move into the Gulf and enhance the possible Gulf development prospects? Pro mets please chime in.

I think he is talking about two seperate developments. One in the GOM moving westward and the other in the Atlantic (92L) eventually moving into the GOM.

[HouTXmetro]

Well I don't see much of anything in the Gulf. Not even a decent blob.

[alicia-w]

animate this image and you'll see what they're referring to (south of Lousiana):

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconusir.html

[skysummit]

Bob Breck on FOX8 in New Orleans also mentioned the same thing about the GOM. He said there's a possibility of a low pressure center forming just off the LA/MS coast this weekend and he'll be keeping an eye on it. His model showed it going ashore in MS though.

[mitchell]

The blob off Hatteras on the stationary front kind of jumps out at you. And diamond shoals buoy (41025) switched from SE @ 12 knots to W @ 25 knots in the last 2 hours

[Steve]

>>Bob Breck on FOX8 in New Orleans also mentioned the same thing about the GOM. He said there's a possibility of a low pressure center forming just off the LA/MS coast this weekend and he'll be keeping an eye on it. His model showed it going ashore in MS though

Bob must have been reading storm 2 k since it was pointed out yesterday morning before Bastardi, Breck, the NHC or anyone else was on to it based on recognition of model output.



Steve

[vbhoutex]

the possibility of a home grown has been mentioned by a few of our local mets too. Not seeing much at this point that suggests it happening, but the longer that frontal boundary lingers the better the chance becomes.

As far as 92L is concerned, the longer it takes for it to develop the more likely it is to become a GOMer problem since low level steering currents would keep it more West that NW. With the high heat content available where it is and probably will go I do expect it to begin development in earnest today unless the shear to its' West slows it a lot.

[jasons2k]

>>Bob Breck on FOX8 in New Orleans also mentioned the same thing about the GOM. He said there's a possibility of a low pressure center forming just off the LA/MS coast this weekend and he'll be keeping an eye on it. His model showed it going ashore in MS though

Bob must have been reading storm 2 k since it was pointed out yesterday morning before Bastardi, Breck, the NHC or anyone else was on to it based on recognition of model output.



Steve

Well this is Bastardi from Wed AM: "The northwest Gulf (west of 90 west) must be watched for home brew."

And from Tuesday: "The trof split, heat over the top, runs the risk of home-brew development in people's back yards, mainly the Southeast or mid-Atlantic states and the Northwest or north-central Gulf."

[Steve]

Those were good calls Schlitz and may both bear out to be something ahead of what everyone's really watching (92L). If the Gulf goes, we'd have a system developing south of Louisiana (putting me on the wet side) moving toward Texas, and if the Atlantic Coast goes (might be similar to the unclassified system that ran up the east coast in June), that would be the US east coast. I just got done watching the video and think that it's interesting that Joe likes a Gulf of Mexico solution for 92l (aka the European Model) moreso than a tuning up storm. I guess this weekend should be interesting all the way around.

Steve

[EDR1222]

The blob off Hatteras on the stationary front kind of jumps out at you. And diamond shoals buoy (41025) switched from SE @ 12 knots to W @ 25 knots in the last 2 hours

I was noticing that as well this morning just off the NC coast. The NHC is not mentioning it though.

[alicia-w]

Isnt that NC blob part of the cold front activity and moving east?

[jasons2k]

Hey Steve:

Yessir, will be quite an interesting weekend indeed. I will be watching closely how JBs ideas pan out this time; he definately has a different twist on things this time around. He did acknowledge that he might be crying "chicken little" for the GOM over the weekend, but all the pieces are there for something to spin-up.

One thing he did in his written column was give kudos to the NHC and their long term discussions. I think in particular he has a lot of respect for SS @ NHC.

[Stormtrack]

Well I don't see much of anything in the Gulf. Not even a decent blob.

Nor do I, just some showers. Another look from radar:
http://www.intellicast.com/Local/USLoca ... e&pid=none

[jasons2k]

Well I don't see much of anything in the Gulf. Not even a decent blob.

Nor do I, just some showers. Another look from radar:
http://www.intellicast.com/Local/USLoca ... e&pid=none

Nothing is really expected until tomorrow or Sunday.

[Stormcenter]

Well I don't see much of anything in the Gulf. Not even a decent blob.

Nor do I, just some showers. Another look from radar:
http://www.intellicast.com/Local/USLoca ... e&pid=none

Nothing is really expected until tomorrow or Sunday.

You are correct jschlitz.

[mitchell]

Isnt that NC blob part of the cold front activity and moving east?

Probably...here's a nice satellite image of the cluster:http://weather.cod.edu/analysis/loops/satrgnlloop.master.pl?hatteras&type=vis

[PTrackerLA]

If something does spin up in the gulf over the weekend, I'll have to subscribe to accuweather because that would be a great forecast call given none of the NWS offices or local mets are talking about it (at least around here). It would be welcomed because we're in a nearly 17" rainfall deficit for the year. So yeah, let me wake up to a churning blob south of LA tomorrow morning .

PS: What happened to the New Orleans thread? I was reading the posts and clicked on the next page and bam it was gone.

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

NWS Ruskin (tampa) did mention the possibility as well a few days ago.