WATS UP - July 29, 2005

[dhweather]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Western Atlantic Tropical Summary WATS UP - July 29, 2005

<img src="http://www.diamondheadweather.com/wats20050729.jpg">

We'll start off today with the cold (almost stationary) front stretching from
the Carolinas to south Louisiana. This front is expected to linger in this
general vicinity for the next 2-3 days. Some models hint at a closed low
forming in the northern GOM in a few days, and moving W to WSW.
I'm not that sure of that solution, so we'll wait and see.

Three upper level lows are draped across the western Atlantic.

ULL-1 is moving westward toward the Florida peninsula, and is causing a
flareup of convection in the southeast Bahamas (circled in orange).

ULL-2 is moving west/west-southwest providing ventilation on the northern part of Invest 92L.

ULL-3 is moving slowly south.

None of these ULL's will develop into tropical systems.

The once dominating area of dry air over the Caribbean has continued to
shrink (circled in yellow), which will result in a more favorable
environment for tropical systems.

Invest 92L is approaching Puerto Rico as it continues moving west/west-
northwest. This wave will continue to head towards extreme south
Florida with a slight chance of development in the next few days.

Invest 93L has moved rapidly towards South America and will likely
crash into Venezuela in the next day or so. No development of this
system is expected.

A tropical wave several hundred miles east of the lesser Antilles continues
to move west with no signs of development.



Comments welcomed.


David

[WeatherEmperor]

Correct me if I am wrong but ULL#2 appears to be diving SW which could cause some wind shear for 92L. Environment is not totally favorable.

<RICKY>

[dhweather]

To me, it appears to be moving WSW. Yesterday, it was diving SW, but
slowed down significantly in the afternoon.

If 92L gets much closer to the ULL, then yes, shear will become a problem.