RIDGE GONE, big trough over east

[Ivanhater]

wow, the things havnt even developed yet, and we already have people in here saying its going to recurve!! first off we dont even know where the center will form if at all, it amazes me that some people are saying where its going to go when there isnt even a center yet...wow

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

My apologies, I should have made a disclaimer about the spagetti plots
it's too early to tell...

[WeatherEmperor]

wow, the things havnt even developed yet, and we already have people in here saying its going to recurve!! first off we dont even know where the center will form if at all, it amazes me that some people are saying where its going to go when there isnt even a center yet...wow

exactly my point. i couldnt agree more.

<RICKY>

[Ivanhater]

My apologies, I should have made a disclaimer about the spagetti plots
it's too early to tell...

its ok, we all like to jump to gun every once in a while

[Steve]

EDR1222,

It looks like the NAO will be negative but climbing back to positive, dropping slightly negative and then spiking up again (according to the ensembles). Someimtes a change from positive to negative and vice versa can indicate a pulse/uptick in development as we've seen already a couple of times this year.

The 7-day lead forecast has been pretty good in picking up the trends as you can see in the 2nd chart.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... _ensm.html

As for the daily, it apperas the 7 day brings the NAO back to positive on or about August the 1st.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... x_mrf.html

Steve

[Tip]

Steve:

Be careful about using that NAO chart that is based on 11 GFS ensmbles.

Better to look at the Euro 500mb pattern at 168hrs and look around Greenland for any blocking. Latest Euro seems to show the blocking is increasing at 168hrs.

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 5072800!!/ (time sensitive)

[EDR1222]

EDR1222,

It looks like the NAO will be negative but climbing back to positive, dropping slightly negative and then spiking up again (according to the ensembles). Someimtes a change from positive to negative and vice versa can indicate a pulse/uptick in development as we've seen already a couple of times this year.

The 7-day lead forecast has been pretty good in picking up the trends as you can see in the 2nd chart.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... _ensm.html

As for the daily, it apperas the 7 day brings the NAO back to positive on or about August the 1st.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... x_mrf.html

Steve

Steve, Thanks for posting the information on the NAO. I don't know much about it but have been reading about it because it has been mentioned a couple times on my local NWS discussions here in Melbourne. The links you posted help me understand it a little more.

[Steve]

>>Be careful about using that NAO chart that is based on 11 GFS ensmbles.

Indeed Tip and I fully agree. Sometimes the ensemble 7, 10 and 14 day leads are WAAAAAAY off. But the 7 day has been running fairly good the last few months and close to the value, so until it misfires, it's been a decent tool. FWIW, a hiccup is showing as today's 7 day prog brings it up to neutral and back down again while the 10 and 14 day progs still anticipate a return to positive.

Steve

[Steve H.]

Oh, Melbourne did change their tune:

MON-THU...BERMUDA RIDGE REBUILDS ALONG 30-32N WITH DRYING INDICATED BY GFS DUE TO BACKING FLOW. SUBSIDENT REGION ASCD WITH APPROACHING SYSTEM FROM THE BAHAMAS IS ALSO SHOWN DRYING OUT AIRMASS. WILL HAVE TO CLOSELY MONITOR SYSTEM FOR POTENTIAL TC FORMATION E-SE OF THE BAHAMAS. LATEST RUN OF GFS INDICATES REDEVELOPMENT OF RIDGE ACROSS N FL FROM TUE ONWARD WHICH WL KEEP WAVE OR CYCLONE ON GENERAL WNW HEADING THRU THE MIDDLE OF WEEK...WHICH IS WHAT THE ECM HAS BEEN ADVERTISING ALL ALONG. STAY TUNED.