Emily forecast #9: Borderline Cat 4 at landfall

[Josephine96]

EXPERIMENTAL HURRICANE FORECAST
HURRICANE EMILY
NJN WEATHER CENTER
8PM TUES JULY 19TH 2005

Hurricane Emily has flat out baffled me in my forecasting as my errors in intensity have been huge, as I originally thought she'd be nothing more than a Cat 2 when she made her 2nd landfall. Only now do I find out she is only 6 mph from once again being a category 4.

Emily's trek through the warm waters of the BOC have allowed her to make the strength jump, coming back from the dead as a minimal hurricane yesterday after lashing the Yucatan.

Emily is expected to make landfall tomorrow early before Noon eastern time in the Central part of the Mexican coast. She may strengthen slightly before making landfall. Emily's rainbands are already lashing Mexico and sloshing as far north as South Texas.

Emily is in an area where warm water and a close land proximity will also cause some friction with the feeder bands. Thus, the possibility for severe weather, especially tornadoes is in those rainbands and residents in the areas should be weary of the rapidly deteriorating weather.

Emily is expected to die quickly once she makes her westward journey through Mexico, being nothing more than a swirl of clouds as she may exit Mexico and enter the Pacific in about 5 days or so.

Here is my experimental 3 day forecast on Emily {Not 5 due to close land proximity}

Tonight: Approaching Central Mexican coast. Max Winds: 130 mph
Wednesday: Making landfall in central Mexico. Max Winds: 130 mph
Thursday: Extratropical in Central Mexico. Max Winds: 55 mph

DISCLAIMER:
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Swimdude]

I'm thinkin' she JUST might make Cat. 4... Which would not be good...

[mike18xx]

So far, my 135mph call is looking dandy.

[Josephine96]

At 135 it'd be a Category 4 again..