Emily looks ragged.

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HurricaneBill
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#21 Postby HurricaneBill » Sun Jul 17, 2005 8:54 pm

The last hurricane to make landfall in that area of the Yucatan Peninsula was Hurricane Dolly in 1996.

Last major was Roxanne in 1995.

The last major to hit Mexico was Isidore in 2002.

Last hurricane to hit Mexico was Erika in 2003.
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Sanibel
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#22 Postby Sanibel » Sun Jul 17, 2005 8:55 pm

Nothing but weakening to shore. Emily is brickwalling into the ULL.


I hope it doesn't jerk north towards Cancun...
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#23 Postby jkt21787 » Sun Jul 17, 2005 8:57 pm

Sanibel wrote:Nothing but weakening to shore. Emily is brickwalling into the ULL.


I hope it doesn't jerk north towards Cancun...

No, it isn't the ULL, its government intervention. :wink: :lol:

Seriously, I would be concerned with any north movement due to the nearby ULL. Interesting hours ahead...
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#24 Postby HurricaneBill » Sun Jul 17, 2005 8:57 pm

I'm guessing 115-120 mph at landfall.

However, the main concern will be the storm surge. What will the tide be when Emily is supposed to landfall?
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#25 Postby wxmann_91 » Sun Jul 17, 2005 8:57 pm

I'm still saying Cat 4 at landfall. Eyewall seems to be reclosing itself at the last radar image, but we'll see if this is just temporary.
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#26 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jul 17, 2005 8:58 pm

MAX FL WIND 134 KT NE QUAD 00:18:10 Z

Although pressure has gone up winds are supporting still a cat 4 so it will be a close call for borderline landfall between 3/4.
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#27 Postby MGC » Sun Jul 17, 2005 9:41 pm

With outflow restricted on the west side and no distinct eye visible Emily is being effected quite a bit by shear. Central pressure is up over 20+mb since last night. I venture to say 125 to 130 at landfall near Cozumel. The trek across the Yucatan will knock Emily down to Cat 2 I'd guess between 90 and 100mph when she emerges in the GOM. Landfall near the Rio Grande looks likely as a strong 2 or weak 3.......MGC
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#28 Postby robjay » Sun Jul 17, 2005 9:43 pm

What is Emily doing? It looks like the Yucatan is a brick wall?

http://orca.rsmas.miami.edu/wximages/jet/1_05/anis.html

Also, this trough business - is it the dry line in the Gulf that's the influencing trough or is it the west texas trough that's moving into place (supposedly)?
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#29 Postby Sanibel » Sun Jul 17, 2005 9:57 pm

The true surface eye is seen as the semi-circular cut into the crescent-shaped eyewall curl on the NW side on the previous page in "wxmann91's" post.

The reason the eye looks north of that is shear tilting of the eyewall...
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#30 Postby HouTXmetro » Sun Jul 17, 2005 10:32 pm

looks like Cozumel will get a direct hit.
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#31 Postby EDR1222 » Sun Jul 17, 2005 10:47 pm

She definately looks like she is feeling some effects of the shear. But still holding her own.
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#32 Postby Hurricaneman » Sun Jul 17, 2005 11:51 pm

Getting sheared a bit
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